The Big Pile of Shit

I think it was all the way back in 2023 when I first said that the US and Israel are going to have to eat a big pile of shit. Well, here it is.

The deal that Hamas agreed to back at the beginning of May was unacceptable because it leaves Hamas intact. Hamas is not surrendering and a permanent ceasefire means that the campaign to militarily destroy Hamas must end. Now to be clear, that military campaign was only strengthening Hamas, making it ridiculously easy for them to recruit. Their influence has expanded and grown and they enjoy far more support now than ever before. So this was the smart move as not finally eating the shit sandwich just meant more shit getting piled on to it. I really believe right now that the timing was dependent on the Trump verdicts - and Joe is hoping this Mission Accomplished moment goes by unnoticed while the rest of us are popping champagne over Trump's multiple felony convictions.

Anyways, both the US and Israel had staked everything on destroying Hamas. An impossible task. And now they have been forced to give up on it.

Biden opened his remarks by saying that Hamas has been reduced to not being able to fight back anymore. That they were no longer a threat to Israel's existence. Holy fucking shit - this was even true on October 7. Those attacks ONLY succeeded because Israel so badly fucked up their response. Hamas has NEVER been an existential threat to Israel - it's just a bunch of angry violent dudes with assault rifles and homemade bombs. Versus one of the most technological advanced militaries in the world backed by the infinite resources of the world's only superpower. That Hamas could not destroy Israel was ALWAYS true.

The Institute for the Study of War/Critical Threats recap for yesterday says that Hamas fired mortars and rockets at the Netzarim corridor. Just south of Gaza City. In the area the IDF has had "under control: since early November. And it was only 5 days ago that Hamas fired a volley of rockets from Rafah to Tel Aviv with a significant number of them evading the Iron Dome. But sure - "Hamas has been destroyed".

The most horrific part of all this, with Hamas still in place and almost certainly stronger than ever - is that all of the destruction was for nothing. Hamas had offered a deal for the return of all hostages way back in October.  I hope that this haunts Biden for the rest of his days - that his fucking racist ass whitey bullshit which lead to a stain on all of human history was all because of his stupid ass racist whitey bullshit. And that he has nothing but death and destruction to show for it.

The New Blogging Deal

 HahHahaHhahahha.  Mission Accomplished.

The deal is literally the same as the deal Hamas offered earlier.

Phase 1 - Israel withdraws from Gaza. Palestinians allowed freedom of movement within Gaza. Most hostages and many prisoners released.  6-weeks.

Phase 2 - The sticking point - a permanent ceasefire. Return of remaining hostages.

Phase 3 - the gruesome part. exchanging corpses.

So some observations - the permanent ceasefire is still the sticking point. It's not guaranteed - but the US and other regional countries are backing is. This is literally the thing that caused Netanyahu to flip his shit last time. IOW, this "new" deal being offered by Israel is literally the deal they called delusional a few weeks ago.

EDIT: Here's a weird piece of strangeness.  Biden opened his statements saying that this was a comprehensive proposal from Israel. Then he closed his statements asking both Hamas and Israel to agree to it. WTF? 

EDIT 2: Here's what Hamas agreed to at the beginning of this month. It is basicallyidentical to this "new" comprehensive peace plan that Biden is pushing. 

Guilty

Pleasantly surprised. A nice feeling for a change.

Community Notes

Yes, Twitter is dead - a heaving mass of racists and 4chan refugees flinging poo at everything that draws close because Elon has decided that those are the voices that need to be amplified. But sometimes we get a reminder of why Twitter was good - even when that reminder is a new thing that Musk introduced.

In the aftermath of the Tent Massacre, Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly tweeted out that she was horrified by the atrocity. It did take over 30 hours for her to say shit about it but eventually she tweeted something out. And then the community notes skewered her and highlighted how full of shit she is. So badly that this tweet is now deleted.

I don't know what that says about how morally bankrupt the whole thing is - that she cannot condemn horrific war crimes and as a result, Canada cannot condemn horrific war crimes - because it is embarrassing for her. I guess the lesson is that genocide is like gang initiation rites - once you're complicit and involved in the criminal enterprise, you're unable to speak out against it because that would be incriminating yourself.

Campaign Slogans

Maybe these aren't important - but good ones seem to have a life of their own. Arguably, being able to craft a slogan that resonates means that the campaign is not out of touch, so maybe it's just that campaign performance and good slogans are both dependent on the same thing - a good campaign run by people who know what they are doing. But even the not amazing ones that we assume are forgettable, we all do still remember.

Yes We Can.

Hope.

Build Back Better.

Those resonated. Even Hillary's "I'm With Her" was a good slogan - it's just that America is misogynist and Clinton really wasn't likable to a very large chunk of the electorate. And of course, Trump's 2016 slogan still serves as a rallying cry for petulant babies wallowing in grievance politics.  MAGA will probably be a lasting scar that we'll not forget even after all of this is over. It's Morning In America and It's The Economy Stupid still live with us -so MAGA will likely stink up the joint long after we've all shuffled off the mortal coil.

Biden's 2024 slogan is "Finish The Job". Now to be clear, this was unveiled back in April 2023, well before circumstances made this an awkward slogan to rally around. "Finish The Job" banners are just not going to work next to "Genocide Joe" protest signs. Or rather, it will work well - just not in a way that helps Biden in the slightest.

And it appears that it is still the slogan - although his campaign team does seem to recognize that now is not the right time to lean into it. But with June closing in and no new slogan in sight, well I guess the plan is for all of this unpleasantness in the Middle East getting wrapped up well before the convention.  Ha-ha, good luck. People are not going to forget.

GBU-39

CNN has an article up where they have an expert identify the munition used in the Tent Massacre. It’s a GBU 39 small diameter bomb made in the USA. A bomb which exploded amongst a number of tents where displaced Gazans where sheltering. In a space believed to be safe. Setting off a firestorm which resulted in massive and horrific casualties. 

An area that should not have been targeted sheltering Palestinians fleeing Israel’s war machine destroyed by fire. A very familiar story that has echoes of the early days of the military campaign. This is what happened at Al Ahli Hospital way back on October 17.  Nobody is following that anymore - there have been so fucking many more atrocities since then - so everyone just accepts the IDF claim that this was the result of a misfiring PIJ rocket. Despite those claims being debunked many times over. 

The Tent Massacre bomb was identified by shrapnel remnants of the tail. Identifying shrapnel pieces seems a pretty conclusive way to narrow down the type of bomb that was used. And someone did try to do that with Al Ahli:

The first piece labeled piece # 1 in the footage resembles a GBU-39 wing. Note that this piece is partially covered in the rubble at one of the ends (contained inside the oval). If we include the covered part, its length matches well that of the GBU-39 wing. The width also matches a GBU-39 wing width.

GBU-39. The US should be proud that they are the exclusive suppliers of Israel’s bomb of choice for creating firestorms that incinerate Palestinians sheltering in tents.  

Red Line Timeline

May 8, Netanyahu has threatened to invade Rafah - No military operations in Rafah without a credible plan to evacuate and protect civilians. [1]

May 16, two days after the IDF enters Eastern Rafah - No "major" military operations. [2]

May 20, hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing Israeli military operations. These are not considered "major" military operations. [3]

May 22, IDF says they have reached the outskirts of Rafah camp - Not "major" because the military operations do not go into "dense urban areas". A reminder, Rafah's population increased by around a million internally displaced people due to the war. It was all densely packed - with tents. [4]

May 28, tanks in downtown Rafah, air strikes hitting tents in designated safe zones west of the operations causing multiple massacres. The Tent Massacre is a "targeted and precise" attack that's justified because Kirby is a fucking racist genocidal ghoul. - Not a major operation - the standard is now "1000s and 1000s of troops moving in a maneuvered, concentrated, coordinated way against a variety of targets on the ground." [5]

Trying to Find a Silver Lining

This is an interesting thread. Ahmed has contacts in these departments, folks who have been given him info the entire time. I'm sure that what he says is grounded in reality. And of course it all makes perfect sense.

We all see the writing on the wall. Can anyone imagine a future where Israel is less despised than it was on October 6th? Not happening any time soon. And they've been trying to hold on to their place of privilege with angry threats and lashing out. Seems to me to be a suboptimal strategy.

So there's a growing sense of an end to the current regime of impunity. The ICC warrants were probably quite shocking to those who believe in "accountability is for others". The Administration was already having difficulties white washing Israeli crimes - they have needed to repeatedly overrule staff opinions to impose the most pro-Netanyahu policies possible.

As Ahmed notes, there will be a paper trail of this. The dissent memos probably now fill entire filing cabinets. There will be mountains of evidence about who knew what and when. And they will be forced into getting new reports into Israeli misconduct, which they will then ignore. And that too will be documented.

It might not change things much now. The top guys are still more than willing to wade in and overrule their staff. "No evidence of war crimes." "Israel is not intentionally blocking aid." But these top guys are going to have to deal with this being in their history. As Ahmed puts it - "people in posts of public trust, many who want to wield even greater power in the years ahead." A lot easier to succeed at that when you are on the right side of history - and it's getting more and more unambiguous about which side that is.

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Yes, this is copium. Shit is super bad - and now we're getting a lot of new people noticing that it is super bad. But I don't see how this moves the needle on Biden's behaviour, let alone Netanyahu's. So the doom and despair levels are high - and the best I can do is hope that this changes how things happen in the future.

Well, What Are You Going to do About Blogging?

That's the question that always gets asked. Okay, sure genocide is bad - but how would you solve it? Everybody knows that you're not permitted to complain unless you have an answer. Unless you have a comprehensive and complete solution to the problems in the Middle East, you cannot say shit about rounding people up into tents in a designated "humanitarian safe zone" and then dropping bombs on it.

The pathetic part of this ridiculous "gotcha" is that the anti-war folks do have a comprehensive and complete solution to it. It's actually one of the slogans. End The Occupation. FFS, it's even the fucking godamned official policy of just about everyone involved. The Two-State Solution is essentially ending the occupation! There's an answer - it's so obvious that everybody endorses it. Even Israel, in its genocidal mania, claims to endorse it.

So what gives? Why are we stuck? Well because despite claiming to back a Two State Solution, Israel has been approving more illegal settlements on occupied territory. Because the government of Israel is filled with eliminationist supremacists who dream of a Greater Israel that has been ethnically cleansed to their satisfaction. This is why they view "from the river to the sea" as a genocidal slogan - because that is how they use it and it is their own position.

That's not the only reason. If it were just that there was one nation with aggressive regional domination aspirations, fueled by murderously racist ideology - that would get shut down. The international "rules based order" would limit the harm such a regime could inflict - with sanctions and ostracism and denial of access to the global community. But in this case - it doesn't. And that is primarily because of the United States of America. The US veto on the Security Council is the most obvious sign of this, but those come only after a lot of concerted lobbying and behind the scenes work influencing other nations to turn a blind eye to genocide.

That's the real problem here. We have a set of rules in place, and sure - they are not perfect. But even imperfect rules are better than "might makes right".

We don't have control over US policy decisions. So, what can we do? Well - it is the exact same situation as Israel's constant violations of international law. Israel does this with impunity because they know the US administration will shield them from consequences. So there's the crime that needs to be addressed - the US administration providing comfort and shelter and material aid to war criminals. Which they do with the expectation of it costing them nothing, or at least not very much at all.

On the ground level - this means not supporting genocide enablers. Yes, I know "Orange Man Bad". And it is a very reasonable assumption to make that he will be even worse than Biden on Israel-Palestine. But it's genocide. Surely this is the red line that cannot be crossed.

It was way back in November that the 99% Hitler meme was born. The original tweet has been deleted, but it's a piece of internet canon lore now. And to be clear - what's happening in Gaza is truly horrific, but it is not anything like Nazi Germany. The Holocaust was far far worse. BUT - a couple months ago, I would have had a third or fourth "far" in that statement. In November, 99% Hitler was so hyperbolic and outrageous that people treated it like a joke. And even now, it is still hyperbolic and outrageous. But also, a lot less funny now.

Yes, Orange Man Bad. He really is. And Biden is far better. This is true. But if this is the choice - then shit is so fucked up and broken that real change is necessary. The best commentary I've seen on 99% Hitler is this. If you need to choose between Hitler and 1% less bad Hitler - you're morally obligated to choose "fuck this shit. Fold it until it is all sharp corners and shove it up your arse."

Everyone has their lines in different places. We all have our own priorities and perspectives. To use the shorthand of the meme, it's quite obvious that Biden is not 99% Hitler and Trump is not 100% Hitler. And if there were a magical Hitler-o-meter, it's also fucking plainly obvious that Trump would rate a much higher percentage Hitler than Joe. But when the system gives you the choice between "a bit Hitler-y" and "somewhat more than a bit Hitler-y" - you need to burn the system down.

I don't like slippery slope arguments - I think you need to address issues on their merits.  And I accept that the current state of affairs does not rise to demanding revolution. But it does warrant something - some response. Perhaps that response could just be "stop defending the genoicde enablers". Is that asking too much?

Rocket Blogging

Caveat - fog of war etc. I'm going to rely on the BBC article. It puts caveats and qualifiers in that seem appropriate to me.

At least eight rockets were launched from the Rafah area in southern Gaza, the Israeli military said, adding that several were intercepted. No injuries were reported.

I'm assuming that this was okay because they do not count "lightly wounded" as an injury, as there are multiple reports of civilians being "lightly wounded" from this attack. Anyways, "at least 8 rockets". I've seen reports of "10 to 12" with 8 of them hitting locations inside Israel.

The BBC report notes that there is rocket damage reported in Herzliya, Petah Tivka, and Kefar Sava. Three different cities that are parts of Tel Aviv - so at least 3 rockets got through, and into populated areas of Israel. This is significant - the Iron Dome is actually incredibly effective and has been stopping rocket attacks quite reliably since October 7. That so many got through in this volley is not a good sign.

The best case scenario for Israel is that there was some sort of malfunction or other failure of the missile defense system. This is reasonable - no system is perfect 100% of the time. So perhaps there is a base chance of serious failure in the Iron Dome, where it loses a large amount of effectiveness once every 7 months or so. This sucks - but it also kind of makes sense how it might happen. 

The biggest problem in this scenario is that the Israel security ecosystem is deeply allergic to any sort of accountability, so addressing this problem will be very difficult. If you refuse to acknowledge that anything has gone wrong, it's very hard to fix things. Still, even if nothing is done to prevent this sort of failure from recurring, the result is that the Iron Dome is maybe a bit less reliable than previously believed. Maybe a couple days per year its performance goes from stopping 9 out of 10 rockets down to 2 out of 10 rockets. The rockets themselves aren't anything like the American made 2,000 pound laser guided JDAMs that flatten entire buildings leaving 50 foot wide craters. They are far smaller - so maybe 8 more rockets may be getting through once or twice a year.

The worst case scenario is that Hamas now has rockets that are far harder to intercept. That would be very problematic for Israel. My understanding of the situation includes the assumption that Hamas does not have any credible way to actually do significant harm. But if they have Iron Dome evading rockets, this would no longer be true. And it would be a very significant change. Even if the rockets cannot do major damage and have very low accuracy, being able to hit Israel basically whenever they want - this can certainly change the dynamic. One mitigating factor is that maybe Israel can upgrade the Iron Dome with whatever next arms-race development is required to stop these rockets - but it certainly is not guaranteed that such an upgrade exists, let alone is feasible.

A couple of notes about this rocket barrage - it was launched from Eastern Rafah, an area the IDF just invaded and took control of. There are IDF forces patrolling Eastern Rafah right now. IOW, the IDF cannot stop rocket launches even when they are actively conducting military operations in the specific neighbourhood the rockets will be launched from.

This happened after Israel closed the Rafah crossing. Where did these rocket components come from? No one knows. But we do know that Israel seems to be incapable of stopping their delivery.

And of course - launching a volley of rockets and getting past the Iron Dome, also at the longest range they've ever managed. All of this says a lot about how well the campaign to "destroy Hamas" has been going. Hamas has also just claimed that they captured an IDF soldier. The official list of fallen IDF soldiers shows that May has not been a good month for them. Quite bad in fact - the worst since January - which is skewed by the surprise ambush where Hamas exploded a building on top of a couple dozen IDF soldiers.

What Separates Israel and the United States from Hamas

And of course, what separates Israel and the United States and other democracies when it comes to incredibly difficult situations like this is our respect for international law – and as appropriate, the laws of war.

-Anthony Blinken, October 12, 2023

At Least They Are Consistent

So, they are doing hearing-type investigations in Israel over the epic failures of the IDF on October 7. Here's an article about it. Here's a big takeaway - the IDF is consistent in their approach, whether they are answering the US, the ICJ, or the Israeli cabinet.

“All matters regarding the warning we gave about October 7 are being dealt with in internal investigations. If you meant in your question that we knew and ignored or that we wanted such a thing to happen – that’s not even worthy of a response,” Halevi shot back.

They are investigating - so shut up with the questions. This is how the US answers questions asked about misconduct from the IDF - Israel is investigating, what more do you want? Also too - after not answering the question and kicking he can down the road, there is the classic taking offense at the question even being asked. For reference, this was a cabinet minister that asked the question, one of Netanyahu's cabinet ministers. One identified by the Times of Israel as being "known for her loyalty to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu".

So we at least have this - the IDF is using the very same "ongoing investigations" excuse regardless of whomever it is they are addressing.

Unilateral Recognition of Blogging

The sheer massive scale of the hypocrisy that is the US denouncing "unilateral" acknowledgements of statehood is mind blowing. I mean the fundamental component of it is bad enough, this idea that Palestinian self-determination is not a basic human right but rather a gift that Israel can choose to grant, BUT that it is the USA - a nation still pathologically consumed by its own origin story of revolution - well, just fucking beyond the pale.

Here is the analogy - the Declaration of Independence is a worthless document holding no force or validity because King George did not agree to it.

BUT WAIT! You might note that America had to win its independence with a costly bloody war after that declaration. And that is true. So really the analogy here is that Spain, Norway, and Ireland are the equivalent of France and Lafayette - obviously the villains of the American Revolution. How dare they unilaterally recognize American statehood before King George granted permission! /s

In addition to that - Gaza has already paid the blood price. The population of the USA during the Revolutionary War was about the same as the population of Gaza now - and the number of war dead back then is estimated at 25,000 to 70,000.  The official death toll in Gaza is over 35,000 with thousands more trapped under the rubble and an unknown number of bodies trapped in IDF controlled areas that remain uncounted.

Anyways - another massively disappointing but unsurprising thing is the sheer inability for the brain geniuses in the Biden Admin to recognize this sort of thing. It's like they are so sure of their righteousness that they cannot possibly conceive of any other way of looking at the situation (even though they have to constantly revise their position as Israel shits all over their plans). It was only recently that there was a leaked comment about how some in the US Unofficial Department of Genociding Muslims were worried that Hamas might be able to recruit fresh new fighters even during the active campaign of the war.  zomg! You don't say! /s

Israel is committing genocide on Gaza. Even if you're one of these stupid assholes who continue to insist that it is not genocide - surely you accept that Israel's military campaign has been horrible and filled with despicable acts of actual malice. The IDF soldiers won't let you forget this as they post a constant stream of themselves playing with the toys of the children they have recently murdered or expelled from their homes.

How do you think this looks to Gazans? Ones that have lost family members and friends to IDF violence. Who have lost their homes, entire neighbourhoods, maybe even entire towns to indiscriminate bombing? Maybe you're like the State Department assholes insisting that it is not genocide - but do you honestly believe that everybody shares your opinion in that?

There are uncountably many people who see it as genocide. Even among Americans, they are basically split on the question. What do you think the numbers are in the Middle East?

And confronting that genocide is Hamas. They are the resistance. Yes, they are also a terrorist organization - but their claims to being the righteous ones, to being the ones fighting against evil - these are all way more credible now than they have ever been. The profile of Hamas has massively increased since October 7th - and now being the primary force opposing an active campaign of genocide, one funded and backed by the world's remaining superpower. It is easy for them to spin a story casting themselves as legendary folk heroes. And it will get easier the longer this goes on. And underlying it all - Hamas is still a terrorist organization. And the new people being recruited have far fresher and more intense reasons to seek vengeance.

In other words, things are going to get worse.

The Ridiculously Woke Leftist Institution of the ICC Shoots Itself in the Foot

Here's the offending link: https://x.com/EvansRyan202/status/1792637056264401392

Is it dumb? Unbelievably. As if Karim Khan was hanging out at Columbia University in his off time, protesting the war or something. Or maybe it's that the "idealists" have some sort of power and influence over the ICC and only just waited through seven months of genocide to make their move.

Also too, the fundamental premise is also bullshit.  Here is what "uniting practically all of Israel behind defending Netanyahu just as his grip on power was finally loosening" looks like.

Thousands of demonstrators from across Israel converged on Jerusalem Monday evening to protest the Netanyahu government, as the Knesset opened its summer session after a six-week recess.

The “day of disruption” demonstrations began with a rally outside the Knesset spotlighting hostage family members and central anti-government activists, followed by a chaotic march through the capital which saw at least two protesters arrested.

Police managed to disperse the protests fairly quickly, utilizing a water cannon to spray foul-smelling Skunk liquid onto activists blocking roads after a procession to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s official residence split into multiple directions in an attempt to evade police barricades.

Dude is actually trying to defend his bullshit by saying "I just believe you should judge decisions by their impact, not their intent." This is literally his defense for saying that Israel is united in defending Netanyahu one day after a series of protests dubbed a "day of disruption" that ended with police firing chemical weapons out of a water cannon at protestors. Protestors that were marching on Netanyahu's house. I suppose they were going there to express their support for Bibi. /s

But hey, any opportunity to punch a hippie - which apparently in this case is Karim Khan. FFS.

EDIT to add: Just so that we are clear. The argument here is that if you don't like Netanyahu then you must also oppose him being charged with the crimes he's committed. Because I am very smart!

Warrants for Blogging Against Humanity

These are welcome, but also - long overdue. Why has it taken this long? Surely it would have been a lot better all around had this happened before the Rafah incursion.

Anyways, more pressure on stopping Israel's military campaign is obviously welcome. And the people who are outraged by it (like Biden) will have their most powerful weapons taken away - and that is the appeal to defend Israel. Because you see, these warrants are not being issued for "Israel" - they are for "Benjamin Netanyahu" and "Yoav Gallant".

No one likes Bibi. Us anti-war folks obviously hate him. The normally non-fascist liberals who reflexively defend Israel hate him- i.e. they love Israel but the hate Bibi. The sycophantic centrist "Vote Blue No Matter Who" crowd hate him - even as Biden burns what is left of his reputation to defend him. Progressive Israelis hate him. Right-wing Israelis hate him. Centrist Israelis hate him. Everybody hates this guy.

Here's an article about his poll numbers in Israel. And here is one about how Americans view him. Dude is not popular.

It's weird that Biden is defending him. This is not going to get the same leeway that he gets when he says blatantly and obviously false bullshit in order to support genocide. In those cases, Biden casts himself as defending Israel. That's still popular (although it is now a lot less so). This is defending Netanyahu - a position favoured by very few people. That said - it is also completely unsurprising.  All that talk of Biden "losing patience" or becoming "increasingly frustrated" with Netanyahu are of course just bullshit. It's been very obvious for a long while now - that Biden values Israeli leadership far more than he values international law.

Will these warrants end the war? Probably not. As Netanyahu himself noted - "the Hague will not stop us." But it should make a difference. 

As I noted in my previous post, the war ends when domestic support for it falls below a critical threshold. Once the countries expending immense resources and losing their military personnel lose enough public support, the war will end. And having war crimes warrants out for the leaders of these countries will contribute to a loss of public support.

Blogging the Endgame

Eventually the military campaign in Gaza will end. Even the US occupation of Afghanistan came to an end - but hopefully it won't take two decades. Anyways, let's game out how it can end.

There's the hopeful dreams of the brain geniuses like Sullivan and the Israeli government who believe that this time is different and you can defeat terrorist ideology by bombing the fuck out of the civilian population the terrorists recruit from. This theory is what we call "fucking stupid and shockingly inhuman" - it's the type of thing that transcends mere racism and psychopathy and enters into the realm of actual evil. 

Obviously not going to happen - BUT, we need to keep this scenario in mind anyways. The reason for that is that any conclusion to the military campaign will have to be signed off on by the US and Israeli governments, so they need to have some sort of outcome that they can vaguely claim meets their goal. This might sound like it's hopeless - it's pretty obvious that there will never be conditions that could reasonably be characterized as any sort of victory for Israel and the US. Fortunately though, both the governments of Israel and the US have proven that they do not give a shit about facts or reality. They just make bullshit claims that are clearly not true all the time. That said, some sort of fig leaf to hide the abject failure of Western leadership would go a long way to getting to an end to the violence.

IOW, obviously the US and Israel are not going to "win" the war - but they are going to have to be able to claim that they did.

How about Hamas? Can they "win" the war? Yes and no. In the practical sense - they have already won. There is no scenario where Hamas is weaker and less influential after the conclusion of the "war" than they were at the beginning. This is exceptional - most wars only have losers - all sides are worse off than when they started - it's just that one side will be more worse off. And in that framing - also the US and Israel are way worse off now than they were at the beginning. Both countries have their international reputations in tatters. The BDS movement has gained enormous momentum. The default reflexive "Israel is right and everybody else is wrong" reaction is far less widespread than before. On October 6, these guys were plotting their victory lap for normalizing regional relations without addressing "The Palestine Issue" at all - and now that's clearly never going to happen. So Hamas has already achieved many big goals. It has come at immense cost to Gazans, but Hamas is a terrorist organization so it's hard for me to believe that they see this as that big of a deal.

That said - also no, Hamas cannot "win" the war. Hamas, even now that it has achieved living legend folk hero status, is really just a gang. A bunch of thugs with assault rifles and homemade rockets. Israel has cutting edge military technology, the best in the world thanks to support from the US. Their most successful attack ever was the terror strike on October 7th - and as much as that was a horrific and brutal assault, it did not actually threaten Israel's existence - and would have been stopped had Israeli leadership not been high on their own sense of hubris and racial superiority.

Hamas has been launching rockets nearly non-stop for seven months and these have done basically nothing. There have been a couple terrorist gunmen conducting attacks within Israel, but these have killed a total of five Israelis - and one of those was killed by the IDF. Hamas does not have the military capacity to actually threaten Israel so long as Israel doesn't literally abandon the Gaza fence on the fiftieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War despite having detailed battle plans from Hamas, plans they knew Hamas was training for in the months before that date. And still - even with an abandonment of defense and a year of planning, Hamas managed to kill 1,139 people and take 230 hostages. Israel has been doing more than that on a weekly basis for seven months now. Hamas is nowhere close to the threat that it is being portrayed as. And it certainly is not capable of destroying Israel. Not even in their wildest dreams.

So how will this end? Just like how most of these things end - the domestic political support for it gets exhausted. Whether this be in the US or in Israel. It doesn't matter about support in Gaza, Hamas is not accountable to Gazans, so they don't need support there. Ironically though, Hamas is more popular in Gaza than Biden is in the US and way more popular than Netanyahu is in Israel.

I don't know much about Israeli domestic politics. I do know that Netanyahu was in trouble before this began, with corruption investigations and weekly large scale protests against his fascist attempts to consolidate power. Polling seems to indicate that his position has not improved and most Israelis want him gone - a sizable chunk of them wanting him out immediately as opposed to at the end of the war. This is one timer on the genocide campaign.

Biden's re-election campaign is the other. I don't know what his advisors are telling him, but I am sure he knows now that his "Bear Hug" strategy has not helped him. They don't call it this anymore and they don't even pretend that it's a thing. The idea was so ludicrously stupid from the beginning - and after the million odd times that Netanyahu has shit all over US demands, it's quite clear that it is not a thing and that pretending it is will hurt Biden's chances even more.

Summer is usually a slow time in the political cycle. All the important people are on vacation - so everything has to wait until Labor Day, when the campaign begins in earnest. Summer is also going to be unbelievably deadly in Gaza. They have no electricity, so there is no A/C. There is no fresh water getting into the strip. June through August will see daily highs in the mid 30's and an average of zero rain days.

I have to believe that there are some non-idiots on the Biden team. Someone has to know that if the situation continues as is into the summer, then shit is going to be unbelievably bad. Sadly, there's been no evidence that such a non-idiot exists. It's either that or it's full on embracing the genocide - that when they were acting indignant when questioned about how many Palestinians have to die, they were really just trying to not give their honest answer. "All of them".

Must do More to Protect Civilians and Increase the Amount of Aid Getting Through

Barak Ravid is reporting that the Israeli plan for the Rafah crossing does not include allowing any food through. Which has been the case since the IDF took it ten days ago. No food is passing through.

On the mitigating side - the magical 1/3 of a billion dollar floating pier is now operational. The initial shipment arriving is described as "as much as 500 tonnes of aid". This is 25 trucks. It is not clear if this shipment has actually been delivered or distributed. For reference, aid agencies are saying that they need 500-600 truckloads at a minimum in order to address the starvation crisis. OTOH, Israel insists that there is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza - that there is no hunger there and suggestions otherwise are blood libels - but also, no independent international media organizations are allowed in to have a look. Also, just ignoring the international aid agencies that are on the ground and saying that there is famine - or calling those aid agencies Hamas or Nazis. Here is one of the zillions of ludicrous bullshit articles of faith that the US State Department has been repeating for months. Israel apparently needs to do more to protect civilians and increase humanitarian aid - but at the same time, the US believes that Israel has gone to extraordinary measures in order to get civilian protection and facilitating aid to the levels they are at now (i.e. zero). Also, Israel insists that this is the case - they are the "most moral army in the world" because they already do so much to protect civilians and facilitate aid deliveries. Now we all know where the lie is. Of course Israel is not doing shit to protect civilians and facilitate aid, but that batch of lies is the basis for US foreign policy. Israel is already doing an excellent job at protecting civilians and facilitating aid delivery, but also they must do more, and also Israel says they are doing as much as possible - already an extraordinary amount that has never been matched by any army throughout history. The obvious answer then - there must be a Ceasefire Now. If more must be done to protect civilians and facilitate aid - but Israel is not capable of doing more in this regard - then they must not be allowed to continue their military campaign. It's either that or you are okay with man-made famine and ludicrous levels of civilian deaths.

Biden Paused a Shipment of Bombs!

And as his spokespeople would like to remind you - only one shipment of bombs was paused. Everything else is still going forward as per schedule.  

This is after they have determined that US weapons were likely used  to commit war crimes. And that Israel likely impeded humanitarian aid before. But it's all cool now - Israel is now totally abiding by the law.

Despite the fact that the intensity of the bombing is as high right now as it ever was previously. Despite the fact that less aid is getting through now than almost any time previous. It's been a week now with essentially zero aid getting in to Gaza.

Facts do not matter to the genocidal assholes running the US government. It's just pure racist bullshit now pushed to genocidal extremes.

It's Worse. A Lot Worse. But That Does Not Change the Perpetual Observation About Gaza

It's going to get worse.

It's closing in on a week now - where the IDF has sat on the Rafah crossing and denied any aid from entering the territory. The expulsion orders now cover a third of a million refugees - sick, injured, starving, being forced to relocate yet again. I can't imagine that the full blown famine in northern Gaza has eased up. But this is still not rock bottom. The people running Israel are now even more fully committed to this genocidal mission they have appointed themselves. The people with any power to stop it are using all of that power to ensure that it continues as long as possible.

The IDF has moved back into the Jabailya refugee camp in Gaza City to retake areas they "cleared" months ago. And this isn't the first time they've had to move back into some of those areas. Hamas is still launching rockets. Israel said that 50 of their soldiers were injured in fighting yesterday. And we're supposed to believe that Hamas has been weakened.

It's getting worse for Israelis too. Not just the police crackdowns on protests and demonstrations inside Israel, but also their standing in the world. Israel's reputation has plummeted all around the world. The campus protests and encampments in the US have now spread to many other countries. The BDS movement has never been stronger and they have won concessions on multiple fronts.

And that's not going to change. People are not going to shrug off the genocide and pretend it never happened. And as conditions continue to deteriorate in Gaza, more and more people are going to be pushed over their personal lines.

I was hopeful for a moment. When Biden said that he was suspending arms transfers to Israel - he had acknowledged that US weapons almost certainly were used to kill civilians and that he was holding back a shipment of bombs and shells. But then, genocidaires just gotta genocide. Biden is still fully supportive of this insane and impossible task of "destroying Hamas" with bombs and guns and tanks and apparently tens of thousands of murdered civilians. Apparently, that is his plan to "win" peace - kill enough people and maybe they will learn their lesson.

That's where we're at folks. Endless killing in pursuit of an impossible goal, using methods that make the goal less and less achievable. And they can't turn it around - they need to "destroy Hamas" because otherwise they would be admitting that the horrors inflicted on Gaza have been for nothing. So it is going to get worse. And after that, it will continue to get worse.

They Think You're Stupid About Blogging

The National Security Memo 20 report is out. We're all supposed to be like "oh, the US is finally acknowledging that US weapons have been used to kill civilians and that Israel is in violation of international humanitarian law. BUT - no, this report is more insulting to your intelligence than the months on end where they insisted that there is no evidence of Israeli war crimes.

This stupid fucking Administration is saying that Israel is not blocking humanitarian aid. Right now they are saying this. Just fucking preposterous.

Israel is invading Rafah right now. There is only one functional route for aid to get in - the Rafah crossing. That crossing is now an IDF outpost. Aid agencies are reporting that zero aid has entered Gaza in three days.

The report would have been less insulting if it read "fuck you, we're going to do whatever we want and you can go fuck yourselves."

The Labour of Blogging

Quick question for the UK media - we've had quite some time rightfully kicking Keith for his "I do believe they have that right (cutting off food, water, power, the necessities of life)". His attempt to weasel out of it ("I meant right to self-defense") and his defenders like Emily Thornbury ("in that short period of time") have opened them up to a very important line of questioning and it seems like no one is taking it.

Look, I agree that the cheerleaders for the Gaza genocide should be held accountable for their racist bullshit - but more important than that is stopping the genocide as soon as we can. Labour leadership now recognizes that what Israel is doing is indefensible, they are merely trying to cover their asses for defending it earlier. So get them on the record now as saying that what Israel is doing is indefensible. Why aren't the interviewers asking that question? If I had one question for Keith it would be:

Is Israel committing war crimes now?

Maybe I would preface it a bit:

There's been a lot of confusion over what you meant when you said that you believed that Israel had that right. I would imagine that you would want to be very clear about your position in order to prevent such confusion from happening again. So here is a very simple question that is also very important at this moment. Is Israel committing war crimes now? 

Teaching Life, Sir.

I linked the Rafeef Ziadah piece "We Teach Life, Sir" a while back. I linked it because it is an amazingly powerful piece but also I was reminded of the question about "teaching your children to hate" by the images of Israeli children doing genocide pantomine for Purim.

It is important to point out the hypocrisy - but that isn't really keeping in the spirit of Ziadah's work. We Teach Life, Sir is about the unbelievable resilience of the Palestinian people, of Sumud - the steadfastness to the land and the will to resist. I do not have this strength of will nor anything remotely resembling this grace - it is astounding to me and I am amazed by it. And I try to learn these lessons that the Palestinians are teaching every day when they get up. Here is today's lesson I am still trying to absorb.

https://twitter.com/prem_thakker/status/1787893511494267066

Spoiler Alert: the Blogging is Going to Get Worse

You know, at several points in this whole fiasco I've looked at how things have just come together in the worst possible way for the pro-genocide crowd. Stuff like the truce in November ending and then just one week later, the IDF shoots three hostages that had escaped. Or the ICJ ruling coming down and Israel responding by choking the already insufficient supply of aid into Gaza. Or the US declaring the Security Council demand for a ceasefire as "non-binding" a few days before the WCK aid workers were hunted to death. But really - since it's just a constant stream of atrocities out of Gaza, there will always be something that makes Israel look especially bad given the other things going on.

This current set seems especially egregious. Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire deal - and Israel's response is to invade Rafah, the one thing that Biden has said is not allowed (but also committed to not doing anything about it if Israel violates this red line). The Rafah crossing is now an IDF facility, meaning that no humanitarian aid is getting into Gaza anymore - and this comes just after Cindy McCain, in her role as head of the World Food Program, declared northern Gaza to be in a state of "full-blown famine".

"Full-blown famine" means that the death toll from malnutrition now exceeds 2 per 10K population per day. Some 300,000 people remain stranded in northern Gaza - so this means that at least 60 people are dying from starvation every day. And now, the already insufficient trickle of food has been cut off.

Eastern Rafah is under expulsion orders. Many people here, starving and wounded, have been already been displaced multiple times. They don't have the resources to move again - but they are being told that the place they are sheltering will be turned into an official war zone shortly. And there is nowhere for them to go.  Rafah itself has now swelled to something like six times it's normal population. Note - this behaviour is the basis for the IDF's claim to be the most moral army in the world - they are so moral that they will tell people they are about to slaughter that the slaughter is coming soon.

Israel has also escalated their crackdown on "enemy" media. Al Jazeera has been banned from Israel and their offices were raided, with their equipment confiscated. You know, the type of behaviour one would expect from "the only democracy in the Middle East".

Shit is super bad and it looks super bad. It seems like Israel is committed to acting like a cartoonishly evil supervillain. But that's not it. No one does stuff "to be evil" or whatever. This is all just stuff that Israel thinks is right and proper. It is their moral duty to invade Rafah - not doing so is an abdication of their commitment to fight terrorism. It is entirely reasonable to use the power of the state to attack media organizations - that it has taken so long is the actual violation of common sense and international norms. Cutting off food and aid to hundreds of thousands of people already experiencing famine is just good tactics and strategy. 

They actually believe this shit. They still unironically claim the IDF as the most moral army in the world, and would do so even if you were to show them the snuff videos IDF soldiers uploaded to social media. Stuff looks super bad because it is super bad. And that context such as "Hamas has agreed to the ceasefire deal" or "northern Gaza is in full-blown famine" do not play any role in Israeli decisions. They have even told us this before! That the invasion of Rafah is happening regardless of whether there is a deal or not.

What this all means is that I will continue sounding like a broken record. It means that shit is going to get worse. A lot worse. And Israel is going to continue doing what they are doing - actually they will do it harder, they will escalate even more than they already have. Because they believe that what they are doing is just and righteous. They are acting in accordance to their stated convictions and beliefs. And what we are seeing unfold is the actual results of all of that.

The Plot of the Blogging Thickens

 Hamas has accepted the ceasefire deal. 

The Blogging is Getting Worse

 Evacuation order issued for eastern Rafah.

Blogging the Ceasefire Deal Again

This is not the first time I have stated that the Ceasefire talks are pure bullshit. It's been made even more clear by statements from Israel recently, and also confirmed by the US that these talks are not serious. Not in the slightest. There's a sort of big fundamental sticking point to the negotiations that no one has found an answer to. Here is that problem:

Neither the US nor Israel believe that Hamas can be allowed to exist.

That's the problem. They are negotiating a deal with Hamas but their fundamental goals and non-negotiable demands include complete eradication of Hamas. This has been obvious ever since the original truce fell apart at the beginning of December. The US and Israel are both 100% committed to "destroying Hamas". They have both said that there can be no Hamas in post-war Gaza, so any permanent ceasefire can only happen after Hamas has been wiped out or if they unconditionally surrender.

Some people might argue that this is a bad faith negotiating position. Those people would be correct. But also, despised and demonized by the US government.

Now to be clear - Hamas might also be negotiating in bad faith. They might only be pretending to be interested in a cessation of hostilities and will not restrain rocket barrages and other attacks. It's possible - Hamas is a terrorist organization and they likely do not have full and active control over their forces. Maybe they cannot deliver on a promise to abide by the ceasefire or that they don't have any intention of doing so. The problem with that argument is that we know it's not true. The truce at the end of November went along just fine - despite Israel reneging on allowing aid into Gaza. That truce ended only because there was no framework for exchanging the remaining hostages. Also too, it ended at Israel's discretion. Maybe there were some de-minimus hostilities in that period, but nothing serious enough to challenge the truce.

IOW, Hamas has already shown that it is willing to abide by the terms of a truce (although only for a week so far). But as I have previously mentioned - of course they would. A truce/ceasefire will strengthen Hamas and further cement them as the most popular group in the region. A ceasefire is in Hamas' best interest - even if you assume they don't give a shit about what happens to Gaza. Because a ceasefire is a huge win for Hamas - it legitimizes them and massively raises their profile even more than their resistance to genocide already has.

And herein lies the trap that Biden has built for himself (and also the entire Middle East). What's the alternative? The military campaign to "destroy Hamas" has only made Hamas more powerful and influential, now with a massive pool of potential recruits eager to exact revenge.. Anti-Israel sentiment is higher now than at any point in time that I can remember - and Hamas is already way more popular than Netanyahu's fascist government or Biden's complicit one. The harder they go after Hamas, the more legitimacy it accumulates.

So there's the trap. Heads - Hamas wins, Tails Israel and the US lose. A ceasefire makes Hamas stronger. No ceasefire and more military action makes Hamas stronger. What can Israel and the Us do at this point?

What hey fail to recognize is that they have no exit plan. They cannot destroy Hamas with military might - firstly, it's not actual possible. In addition to being a terrorist organization, Hamas is also an idea. The idea of resistance and a sovereign Palestine. You cannot defeat this idea with violence - attempting to do so just makes it more powerful. Which means that at some point, this will end with negotiations that leaves Hamas in charge.

So the choice they have made - to fight Hamas tooth and nail, is doomed to failure. This is going to end with a negotiated peace deal - one that leaves Hamas intact, although possibly rebranded under a different name. And every day they don't accept this fact, this just plays into Hamas' strategy to consolidate their power. It's a case of Heads Hamas wins and tails, Israel and the US lose - but also the game keeps going until a Head is flipped.

Another Update on How the Blogging is Going

It's been a while since I've done one of these, so we're overdue for checking in on the situation in the Middle East and gauging how great things are going for Israel.

Israel had two stated goals with this special military operation: 1. Destroy Hamas and 2. Rescue the hostages. Let's take them in reverse order.

Rescuing hostages. A big fail.  They have rescued three hostages - the same number of escaped hostages they executed for waving a white flag. Less than the number Hamas released unilaterally (four). IOW, in terms of rescuing Israeli hostages, Hamas has done a better job than the IDF. And of course - 105 hostages were recovered by negotiation and a cessation of hostilities. So quite obviously - the rescuing hostages part of it all has been a Big Failure.

The current death toll of Israeli soldiers since the start of the ground invasion is 263. More than the total number of hostages taken. Very strategic strategery here.

Destroying Hamas. Lol, no. Hamas launched rockets during Passover. According to the Institute for the Study of War, they also launched four rockets today. They also note that Hamas has been challenging the Netzarim Corridor - this is the flattened out area Israel "cleared" so they could rapidly deploy right into Gaza.

It looks like the IDF sustained fewer casualties in April than in previous months - but Hamas is still killing them from time to time. So Hamas is still a force that militarily retains the ability to fight inside Gaza with effectiveness. But only inside Gaza - with their only real success outside of their enclave was the surprise terror attack that Israel had the battle plans for a year in advance and decided that this was a good sign to relocate troops away from the Gaza fence. Against almost any other nation, or even Israel itself at a time when there was less hubris and deceit and worship of Netanyahu's strategic genius - adherence to "Cut the Grass" would not have allowed them to fuck that up so badly.

Politically, Hamas is still very popular. I would guess this is a result of being one of the very few groups standing up against genocide:

Before October 7, Fatah would have defeated Hamas in a head-to-head vote of all Palestinians 26 to 22 percent. If elections were held today, Fatah would lose to Hamas 17 to 34 percent.

Saying that Hamas is stronger and more influential now is dead right. Hamas is quite obviously stronger now than they were on October 7.

And what has this huge amount of zero progress cost? Resource-wise Israel is now into big deficits. There's global demands for scrutiny and divestment of arms to Israel. It's being seen by more and more people as the rogue state that it is. There was the ICJ protective orders issued in January and strengthened since then. The ICC is now looking to finally lay charges against Israeli leadership. 

Support in the US, which is funding the genocide, is dropping in the general public despite remaining very high in elected leadership. But even there, cracks are beginning to show. The US has now repeatedly undermined international law and is about to engage in a ridiculous pantomime in order to pretend that they aren't also violating US law. And now, in the face of peaceful campus protests, have gone with a heavy-handed militarized overreaction.

Both countries are increasingly isolated, their reputations around the globe just being torn to shreds. Their support inside their own borders dwindling. The usual defense of calling everybody antisemitic Jew haters losing its power.

In other words - Israel's military campaign is going exactly how you would expect - very similar to the last time we checked, but only more so now. 

The Pulitzer Prize for Being a Cuck

So, as the handful of people who have found these posts already know, I've been commenting over at atrios' place. My early need to vent about war was fired off there - but it obviously wasn't enough and here I am, spilling out thousands of words into the void so they can get outside of my head. Anyways, I mention this so I can do a little "I told you so" dance.

Way back in November (IIRC), I'm not positive about the exact timing - I think this was the moment I first pissed a lot of atriot regulars off. It was a comment about the truce deal and what was going to happen afterwards and I said something along the lines of "how much of a cuck Biden is going to be". It's a bit of a shame that I can't dig up the specific comment as it is buried under a mountain of other comments, because I'm pretty sure I got it exactly right. Sure it's an offensive and demeaning term, loved and used by some of the worst people in the world. But it sure fit the situation at the time, and looking back at it now - well, I'm pretty sure this is one where I do get to pull an "I told you so".

Anyways, I bring this all up because we're potentially at another moment of epic cucking. Here's the context.

They threatened to arrest the dean of the school of journalism that hosts the PULITZER prizes & student journalists if they left PULITZER HALL to report on their own campus.

The Pulitzers are run by the Columbia Journalism School. That school and the prize both came from the endowment left by Joseph Pulitzer. They are very much tied to each other. And now, we just had police forces assault Columbia University (again) and directly threaten the Columbia Journalism School itself inside Pulitzer Hall, warning them that if they try to do journalism, they will be arrested.

The Pulitzer Prizes will be awarded on Monday. Less than a week after this assault.

It's possible that I will be pleasantly surprised. It's possible Columbia Journalism School will display some backbone and conviction to the principles of journalism. 

But it's also possible that another batch of prizes for journalism will be awarded without acknowledging Israel's open assault on journalists in Gaza. In the seven months since October 7th, Israel has killed more journalists and media workers than died in World War 2. Or Viet Nam. Or Russia-Ukraine. Or basically any other conflict in history except the Iraq War - and even there, Israel's journalist kill count is close to half way in less than one tenth the time.

It's also possible that the Pulitzers will go to support the budding fascism movement bent on violently crushing any criticism of Israel or any support of Palestinians. A reminder - the Polk Awards were given out earlier this year and the New York Times got one for their Israel-Palestine coverage - you know, including the major feature spreading the now debunked mass-rape propaganda. 

So I'm actually quite curious and interested to see what the Pulitzers do on Monday. There's an obvious good thing they can do - and then there's flushing their credibility down the toilet. And based on the repeated instances that American institutions have made when presented with this very choice in regards to Israel-Palestine, well I did say that I would be surprised if they did the right thing.