QOTD: Harry, That Was Tight.

From the Senate Majority Leader.

I’ve had some tight races, but this wasn’t one of them.

Snap. It's true too, in '98 he beat John Ensign by something like four hundred votes. He beat Sharron by forty thousand. This wasn't even a close race.

2010 Peri-Mortem

Krystal Ball got smoked 2 to 1. This was my most off preditction, as I thought it might be.

House is going to be minimum 238 R. That's my second most off prediction.

Senate. I forgot about Murkowski. I'm going to count her as an R. So the results are 51-47, with Washington and Colorado too close to call. Currently they're looking to go one each for 52-48. Had Pennsylvania and Illinois broke the other way... The two close races are close, but they'll have to get closer to drag on to the New Year. Also, since control of the upper house isn't in question, the stakes aren't that high.

Harry Reid. The press should write your obituary more often. Cookie 4 Me on that one. Which brings us to the Coven of Crazy Ladees. O'Donnell, Angle and Demon Sheep Fiorina. All defeated. iCarly has the honour of also belonging to the triumvirate of woman who would buy their seats. Whitman and McMahon also defeated. Other than Senate control, these five contests are a silver lining in an otherwise really bad night.

As for Prop 19, 55-45 isn't even close. I was way wrong on that call. But I'm one to look on the bright side of life - Prop 19 opponents were way better funded. And the Prop 19 base of under 25's was way too stoned to go out and vote. It's a good thing that Boxer and Brown didn't need those youth votes - you punks oughta be ashamed. And STAY OFFA MAH LAWN.

So, a bad night for the Democrats who did much worse than I predicted but slightly better than the mainstream projections. But the interesting thing is that it was also a bad night for the Tea Party. Sure they got Rand Paul, but they lost a shit-ton too. Joe Miller with the GOP nomination and Palin campaigning for him, was beat by a write-in campaign. In Alaska, the poster-child state of entitled white d00ds living off of government subsidies - uh I mean rugged individualists. By a write-in campaign. The 55-45 defeat for Prop 19 is also the margin that Arizona's Prop 106 passed by. And yes, the Tea Party platform did get a win there, but 55% support for banning the hated Health Care Reform? In Arizona?

So it looks like the big winner of the night is establishment Republicans. Which means more internecine warfare on the right. SO a victory also too for the popcorn industry.

Prediction 2010

Okay midterm time. Just under 10% unemployment, economy in the shitter, screeching idjits yelling everywhere about keeping government out of Medicare. What's it going to be?

House:
Projections have Dems losing fifty seats or more. I'm an optimist.
Dems 210 to Repubs 223 with 2 seats too close to call and absentee ballots have to be opened. They split one each before the end of the week.
Krystal Ball is still a major underdog but a sentimental favourite so I'm predicting that she'll win even though it's pretty close to hopeless.
Senate:
Dems 51 + Sanders and Lieberman - Repubs 46
One race to go to recount land, but I don't know which one. It gets tied up until the New Year.
Harry Reid keeps his seat. Like I said, I'm optimistic. And probably quite delusional. Still not as delusional as Sharron though.

Prop 19. Gotta keep hope alive. Prop 19 passes and Meg Whitman is crushed by the pot enthusiast turnout. iCarly and the demon sheep are also swept aside by folks who just want to light up. Now all you West Coast stoners, make it happen and DON'T FORGET TO VOTE.

Predictions

I figure if I'm right, then I look clever which is YAYYS!
If I'm wrong, I'll be that much closer to a job writing for Fred Hiatt.
If, much more likely, I get a little bit right, and a little bit wrong - I can always delete the post.

NJ Gov - Corzine in a squeaker.  48-45-7
VA Gov - McDonnell blow-out.  55-45 or greater.
NY 23 - Owens blow-out.  55-45 or more.
MA Prop 1 - Yes 48, No 52