Yemen Part 2

So what is going on in Yemen today? It's been over a decade of civil war, who are the two sides? Okay, here's what I've managed to put together.

There's the Houthis, led by Abdul Malik al Houthi. Despite the constant framing of them as Iran's proxy, this is arguably the most homegrown domestic faction. If you are reading this, you're probably not surprised that the reality on the ground is the opposite of the stories - but we need to also bear in mind that our own prejudices may cut the other way as well. Despite being the actual anti-imperialist/anti-colonial faction, the stories of them being racist as fuck are true. Their motto literally calls for a curse on all Jews. They are a Zaydi supremacist group with an ideology that posits a bloodline pure imam that will rule The Imamate. Notably however - Abdul Malik does not claim to be this imam. Anyways, take home point is they are seeking to establish a theocratic state with Zaydi Muslims running the show.

That said, my impression is that this is an incredibly pragmatic faction. unlike the Taliban. They are motivated by factors beyond religious fundamentalism, even though religious fundamentalism makes up a lot of the DNA. While they believe in the supremacy of their sect, they are not eliminationist of other faiths, except Jews - super antisemitic these guys, so they aren't innocent of ethnic cleansing. But unlike the stereotype, they are not trying to purge Sunnis or non-Zaydi Shia. They are considered the most Sunni friendly of the various Shia sects. So there's some degree of religious tolerance, so long as you're Muslim. This may be due to their pragmatism - Sunni outnumber Shia in Houthi controlled territory two to one. On the other hand, it has also been part of their origins and has been evident throughout their history - which opens up a huge can of rabbit holes that one may get bogged down in forever.  Suffice to say that the tenets of Zaydi Islam are actually less aligned with authoritarian totalitarianism relative to other groups like the Taliban. Not unaligned, just less aligned. Short version - they aren't as bad as the Taliban - yes this is a very low bar to clear.

I believe they have two sets of goals for Yemen. The first involves purging foreign influence, of which there is plenty and has been immensely damaging to the country. This is the part of their program that is very popular.  The second set involves taking over the country, to become the rulers of all of Yemen. This is the unpopular part of the program. I guess I didn't need to point that out.

BUT - all indications are that Abdul Malik al Houthi is pragmatic. He seems to understand that the Houthi movement has limits in what they can achieve, and it is in careful application of force, respecting those limits - that this one insurgency in one of the poorest nations in the world has managed to hold the global economy hostage. And despite the Zaydi supremacist mindset, I believe he understands that ruling over all of Yemen is impossible. The non-Zaydi populations in other regions are still Yemeni - with the resilience and resistance that this implies. He knows that empires with infinite resources have attempted it and failed. That Yemen is a nation built on overthrowing oppressors, so that would be an uncomfortable position to step into. In short, I think Houthi leadership is susceptible to being bribed into peace.

The other side is the Internationally Recognized Government. Just to illustrate what "Internationally Recognized" means - territory under Houthi control make up 70% to 80% of the population - but since that remaining rump is made mostly of colonial proxies, guess which gets recognized.

The Internationally Recognized Government consists of two factions - the Saudi owned northern faction based out of Marib and the UAE owned faction based out of the rural areas around Aden. Despite Aden being the interim capital of this government, the Marib faction is dominant and the southern faction (which used to be the Southern Transitional Council or STC) is in decline. The leader of the STC has fled to Abu Dhabi under accusations of treason - the STC was a separatist faction, so that's likely where that comes from. 

Just to make things more confusing, what used to be the STC itself is also two factions. The people living in Aden itself, an urbanized cosmopolitan population shaped by over a century of being a British colony, and the more rural tribes in the surround region who are much more like mercenaries under the employ of the UAE. But with the collapse of the STC, this separatist movement is on the rocks.

The UAE is effectively kicked out of Yemen, so the STC is no longer viable with no one paying the bills.  The Marib faction is facing similar issues - Saudi Arabia is desperate to withdraw. They do not want to continue pouring more and more money into Yemen with no hopes of success.  They need to cut a deal with Yemen in its entirety, and that includes Houthis.