Yemen Part 3 - the Hot Take

Still with me? Because we're going to the first hot take.

One thing I want to make clear - the general assumption that the Houthis are proxies for Iran is just plain wrong. In Yemen, they are the most grassroots group. Their relationship with Tehran is completely unlike what is implied. The Houthis are self-funding (through extorting their own people). They don't take orders, but they do take suggestions. Tehran has influence over them - not control. Let's review.

The Houthis came to our attention in 2023/2024 when they announced a blockade of Israel bound ships. This involved actually striking shipping vessels and even boarding and capturing the Galaxy Leader. The Houthis were the only group outside Palestine that was taking up arms in defense of Gaza. And yet what was Iran doing at this time?  Trying to normalize relations with the House of Saud - the Houthis main nemesis, responsible for Gaza-esque air strikes on Houthi territories. 

I don't want to imply that they are fully independent. I think a lot of Houthis travelled to Iran to learn from the IRGC in the early days. I also think that this training vector now flows both ways and the IRGC is learning a lot from Ansar Allah.  Also, Iran is providing weapons and weapon technology. Iran is almost certainly a major part of the arms smuggling network that keeps the Houthis as deadly as they are.

But this is cooperation or mutual aid. It is not a proxy arrangement.

By contrast, the Yemeni government under the PLC gets payroll from Saudi Arabia. This explains the "ghost soldier" phenomenon you might have been hearing about - Saudi pays salaries for soldiers - whether they exist or not, so an enterprising militia commander can make a little extra on the side. 

Even the southern forces created and funded by the STC - with the UAE kicked out, someone had to pay the salaries of the Southern Giants Brigade. An elite brigade of mercenary fighters with UAE supplied hardware and already based where Saudi Arabia has a lot of "interests"? The same goes for Saleh's National Resistance forces. Meaning that Ansar Allah is the only truly domestic militia. Aligned with Tehran in the Axis of Resistance, but that alignment only goes so far.

Here's the hot take - people who think the Houthis attacked the Saudi pipeline are off their rockers. It was in fact Tehran that ordered the pipeline hit, and specifically to reduce the influence of the Houthis.

Let me explain. The Houthis rush for the coast started on September 3. They abandoned positions around Taiz in a strategy of "lose the desert, gain the coast". By September 10, Mocha had fallen and the Houthis were essentially in full control of Bab Al Mandeb.

Now you might think that Iran was loving this - it made their blockade of Hormuz much more effective being a double blockade that Saudi Arabia could not bypass. And yet on September 11, the east west pipeline through Saudi Arabia was hit (from Iraq). What's the point of this? The Houthis were already blockading Bab Al Mandeb. This was the least important time to hit the pipeline. 

UNLESS - Iran did this explicitly to reduce the Houthis ability to bargain. Iran already had all the leverage it wanted at the time - capturing Bab Al Mandeb was gilding the lily - only the Iranian blockade had turned into a double blockade, meaning that Tehran had to share the leverage over the world economy. But if the pipeline was hit - control over Bab Al Mandeb only impacts the few days of oil in storage on the Red Sea coast. IOW, Tehran activated their Iraqi proxy militia groups to strike the pipeline with the expectation that this would reduce Houthi leverage and Iran would be the sole negotiator for Middle East peace.

This theory discards the lazy Tehran proxy framing and considers the Axis forces as independent if aligned actors. And it explains the nonsensical timing of it all - striking the pipeline when it was the least necessary time to do so.

To be clear - this was not to hurt the Houthis. Tehran remains highly aligned with Sana'a. This was Iran acting to protect its monopoly on negotiating a way out of the current energy crisis. Hitting the pipeline means the only escape hatch for Saudi oil is Hormuz, where Tehran calls the shots.

Yemen Part 2

So what is going on in Yemen today? It's been over a decade of civil war, who are the two sides? Okay, here's what I've managed to put together.

There's the Houthis, led by Abdul Malik al Houthi. Despite the constant framing of them as Iran's proxy, this is arguably the most homegrown domestic faction. If you are reading this, you're probably not surprised that the reality on the ground is the opposite of the stories - but we need to also bear in mind that our own prejudices may cut the other way as well. Despite being the actual anti-imperialist/anti-colonial faction, the stories of them being racist as fuck are true. Their motto literally calls for a curse on all Jews. They are a Zaydi supremacist group with an ideology that posits a bloodline pure imam that will rule The Imamate. Notably however - Abdul Malik does not claim to be this imam. Anyways, take home point is they are seeking to establish a theocratic state with Zaydi Muslims running the show.

That said, my impression is that this is an incredibly pragmatic faction. unlike the Taliban. They are motivated by factors beyond religious fundamentalism, even though religious fundamentalism makes up a lot of the DNA. While they believe in the supremacy of their sect, they are not eliminationist of other faiths, except Jews - super antisemitic these guys, so they aren't innocent of ethnic cleansing. But unlike the stereotype, they are not trying to purge Sunnis or non-Zaydi Shia. They are considered the most Sunni friendly of the various Shia sects. So there's some degree of religious tolerance, so long as you're Muslim. This may be due to their pragmatism - Sunni outnumber Shia in Houthi controlled territory two to one. On the other hand, it has also been part of their origins and has been evident throughout their history - which opens up a huge can of rabbit holes that one may get bogged down in forever.  Suffice to say that the tenets of Zaydi Islam are actually less aligned with authoritarian totalitarianism relative to other groups like the Taliban. Not unaligned, just less aligned. Short version - they aren't as bad as the Taliban - yes this is a very low bar to clear.

I believe they have two sets of goals for Yemen. The first involves purging foreign influence, of which there is plenty and has been immensely damaging to the country. This is the part of their program that is very popular.  The second set involves taking over the country, to become the rulers of all of Yemen. This is the unpopular part of the program. I guess I didn't need to point that out.

BUT - all indications are that Abdul Malik al Houthi is pragmatic. He seems to understand that the Houthi movement has limits in what they can achieve, and it is in careful application of force, respecting those limits - that this one insurgency in one of the poorest nations in the world has managed to hold the global economy hostage. And despite the Zaydi supremacist mindset, I believe he understands that ruling over all of Yemen is impossible. The non-Zaydi populations in other regions are still Yemeni - with the resilience and resistance that this implies. He knows that empires with infinite resources have attempted it and failed. That Yemen is a nation built on overthrowing oppressors, so that would be an uncomfortable position to step into. In short, I think Houthi leadership is susceptible to being bribed into peace.

The other side is the Internationally Recognized Government. Just to illustrate what "Internationally Recognized" means - territory under Houthi control make up 70% to 80% of the population - but since that remaining rump is made mostly of colonial proxies, guess which gets recognized.

The Internationally Recognized Government consists of two factions - the Saudi owned northern faction based out of Marib and the UAE owned faction based out of the rural areas around Aden. Despite Aden being the interim capital of this government, the Marib faction is dominant and the southern faction (which used to be the Southern Transitional Council or STC) is in decline. The leader of the STC has fled to Abu Dhabi under accusations of treason - the STC was a separatist faction, so that's likely where that comes from. 

Just to make things more confusing, what used to be the STC itself is also two factions. The people living in Aden itself, an urbanized cosmopolitan population shaped by over a century of being a British colony, and the more rural tribes in the surround region who are much more like mercenaries under the employ of the UAE. But with the collapse of the STC, this separatist movement is on the rocks.

The UAE is effectively kicked out of Yemen, so the STC is no longer viable with no one paying the bills.  The Marib faction is facing similar issues - Saudi Arabia is desperate to withdraw. They do not want to continue pouring more and more money into Yemen with no hopes of success.  They need to cut a deal with Yemen in its entirety, and that includes Houthis.

Yemen Part 1

Made it a year before the voices forced me back to rant here.  So unsurprisingly, it's going to be a long one.

First to open with a couple caveats. The minor one - I only knew a little bit about Yemen before the Houthis started blockading Israeli ships coming through the Red Sea - while I've "done my own research" since then - this is by no means anything close to representing a decent amateur's understanding, let alone an expert's. More important caveat - the previous one doesn't matter. The only important opinions on what happens to Yemen are Yemeni - which I am not.

Okay - the main issue is that Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the world, despite having substantial oil deposits and a strategic location on one of the world's most important shipping routes. That poverty is mostly inflicted by external forces. 100% due to external forces putting the nation under blockade and a decade of bombing runs. And split responsibility (but mostly foreign influenced) for a decade long civil war mostly fueled by those same external forces.

Yemen is an ancient civilization, and a proud one, and as we are coming to learn, an incredibly resilient one. The nation has been subject to crazy waves of imperialist colonization, all broken by the many factors which make it ungovernable. I've identified the brutal terrain and the fragmented tribal groups and resulting complex network of relationships therein - but again - not even a decent amateur's understanding of the country, so there are likely more. It's resisted the Ottomans, the British, and the Russians. It's currently got Saudi and Emirati meddling - neither of which are going to last - although they have caused immense damage tied to that decade long civil war.

And yet despite it all, the Yemenis have resisted - although they have been forced into deeply fundamentalist nationalist groups for survival and to push out the colonizers, earning it the nickname "Graveyard of Empires".  Sound familiar? Kind of reminiscent of Afghanistan if you ask me. And that should serve as a big flashing warning sign to the international community - we're creating a new Taliban here. And both Ansar Allah and Al Islah aren't that far off already.

More importantly though, even after a brutal civil war claiming hundreds of thousands of lives, both these groups still identify as Yemeni. The Yemeni national identity is real and incredibly durable - also not unlike Afghanistan.

It's a nation that has taken what imperialist colonial empires can throw at it and still remains strong today. Strong enough to enforce a blockade on global trade that has real and meaningful effects - despite being one of the poorest countries in the world. So what needs to happen is that instead of meddling, foreign powers (and domestic ones too) have to recognize that "owning" Yemen is impossible. Many empires tried and they all failed. And more importantly, an "owned" Yemen - some sort of colony forced to pay tribute - this is less beneficial not only for the Yemenis but for whichever sucker empire wants to pout untold resources and lives into the impossible task of pacifying the locals. Far better to support and foster an independent Yemen, one that rebuilds with its oil wealth and then cements its place in the global community with its maintenance of one of the world's most important trade routes.

Abolish ICE

Not that anyone needs another reason to say “Abolish ICE” - but there is another reason:

https://bsky.app/profile/stevenmazie.bsky.social/post/3lydlxhu6lc2y

It's All Bibi's Fault

Just a quick observation for when this continues to fall apart and the establishment looks to deflect blame by scapegoating Netanyahu. With the exception of 1 single year (June 2021 to June 2022), Benjamin Netanyahu has been Prime Minister of Israel since 2009. And 2009 was the start of his second time as PM. 

If you go back to when George Bush was president, Bibi has been PM of Israel more often than he has not. And I mean the elder George H.W. Bush.

A Pencil to a Knife Fight

The "duelling resolutions" on Gaza perfectly sums up the Democratic Party and why there either needs to be a deep fucking purge or progressives need to just say "fuck it" and start over from scratch. 

One resolution - calling for "release all the hostages, let in humanitarian aid, call for a ceasefire" was passed unanimously. This might sound good - if it were early 2024. This was put forward explicitly to head off the second resolution calling for "a complete arms embargo on Israel and the recognition of a Palestinian state". The DNC passed one and killed the other - on voice vote. And they did this less than a week from famine being officially declared in Gaza. 

Speaking of famine - Ken Martin's opening speech "stop bringing a pencil to a knife fight" kept talking about how voters were hungry for a party that fights. He kept using that word - "hunger". Starting at 15 seconds into that video, he says it five times in fifteen seconds. Literally while he was trying to derail efforts at stopping Israel from inflicting famine on hundreds of thousands. You know who else is hungry Mr. DNC Chair? The people you keep trying to shove back under the bus.

That's not the part that just encapsulates the whole fucking disaster. It was obviously clear that mutiny was going to break out - so Martin fucking withdrew the watered down amendment. So that they could discuss it more. So what he did was kill even the watered down amendment - meaning the DNC summer meeting is going to say absolutely nothing about Gaza at all.

He opened the meeting talking big talk about fighting and doing more and letting the voters know they are being heard. He said they were going to stop bringing pencils to the knife fight. Turns out what he meant was "we only have pencils, so we aren't going to go to the fight at all."

Here is the only real question for progressives - can the Democratic Party be saved? All signs point to no. They cannot.

BUT BUT BUT - won't splitting the vote result in Republican electoral dominance? To that I say - what the fuck do we have now! Donald fucking Trump got re-elected even after closing out his campaign at a fascist white supremacist party by giving a microphone a blowjob. Progressives fucking did this - they let the fucking neoliberal shitbags run the Cheney hugging, gun toting, genocide denying campaign that Democratic leadership demanded - the Squad dutifully lined up behind the party line with AOC repeating the pure nonsense of "tirelessly working for a ceasefire". And Harris put in the worst performance of a Democratic candidate since fucking Walter Mondale.  And where are we now - with the same leaders in place?

• Trump is polling at minus 14.
• Republicans are polling at minus 17. 
• Democrats? Minus 30.

Now the DNC decides that "let's pass the same bullshit toothless resolution we've been flogging since the start of Harris' 107 days if not longer - and then pull it so we don't even get that approved" is how they show they are listening to the people. Where Democrats support Israel's military campaign by a whopping 8%. That's not a net 8% over not supporting - that's only 8% of Democrats still support this monstrosity.

I keep asking - what's the end game here? What is the plan? Progressives have to keep supporting these fucking genocidal assholes as they continue to chase the Republicans down the abyss? This was the plan this past November and how did that turn out? And now progressives are being told that the only way to win in the future is to keep doing the things that have gotten us to this point.

The Most Moral Army in the World

There's a wild piece of bullshit going on about how Israel actually does a remarkable job of protecting civilians - that modern urban warfare usually has a 9:1 civilian to combatant ratio while Israel's is 1:1.  It's of course bullshit and lies, excellently taken apart here by Alonso Gurmendi - among others.  But there's a couple things I'd like to get to regarding it. You might know one of them, it's been making news and I'm mentioning it here because it's pretty new. That is - according to Israel's own assessment of who is a terrorist - they are still killing 6 civilians per Hamas fighter. So not 1:1. And this assessment of "who is a terrorist" is Israel's own and would include people like Anas Al-Sharif. IOW, the real ratio is almost certainly worse than 5:1.

Here's the other point - and I would love to see someone pushing the 9:1 line get questioned on it.  Do you know what had a much lower ratio than 9:1?  October 7th.

The latest toll from the attack is now 796 civilians, 379 members of the security forces and 14 civilian hostages, giving a total of 1,189.

796/379 is 2.1.  Also, let's not forget that numerous Israeli civilians were killed in that attack by the IDF. For example, all the charred bodies and smoking wrecked cars at the Nova Music Festival? Hamas goons are mostly armed with AK-47's - IDF helicopters fired Hellfire missiles on the crowd.

The paper notes, “This deception worked for a considerable time until the Apaches had to skip all the restrictions. It was only around 9:00 a.m. that some of them began to spray the terrorists with the cannons on their own, without authorization from superiors.”

“The rate of fire against the thousands of terrorists was tremendous at first, and only at a certain point did the pilots begin to slow down the attacks and carefully select the target,” the paper added.

Despite the confusion, twenty-eight Israeli combat helicopters fired all of the ammunition they were holding, including hundreds of 30 mm cannon shells and Hellfire missiles, during the day.

After landing his Apache to reload ammunition at roughly 10:00 am, the commander of the 190 squadron instructed the other pilots “to shoot at everything they see in the fence area,” separating Israel from Gaza.

Anyways, it would be amazing to see someone try this bullshit 9:1 ratio argument and be confronted with Hamas' ratio of 2:1. I guess October 7th wasn't all that horrific because it was actually far safer for civilians than normal modern urban warfare. That would make heads explode.

Oh and also - my main point here.  Yes, Hamas is a terrorist organization that killed almost 800 civilians in a single attack, and took huindreds of people hostage at the point of a gun. BUT the IDF is far worse.

Edit: maths is hard. 1/6 is 5:1 not 6:1