The Big Pile of Shit

I think it was all the way back in 2023 when I first said that the US and Israel are going to have to eat a big pile of shit. Well, here it is.

The deal that Hamas agreed to back at the beginning of May was unacceptable because it leaves Hamas intact. Hamas is not surrendering and a permanent ceasefire means that the campaign to militarily destroy Hamas must end. Now to be clear, that military campaign was only strengthening Hamas, making it ridiculously easy for them to recruit. Their influence has expanded and grown and they enjoy far more support now than ever before. So this was the smart move as not finally eating the shit sandwich just meant more shit getting piled on to it. I really believe right now that the timing was dependent on the Trump verdicts - and Joe is hoping this Mission Accomplished moment goes by unnoticed while the rest of us are popping champagne over Trump's multiple felony convictions.

Anyways, both the US and Israel had staked everything on destroying Hamas. An impossible task. And now they have been forced to give up on it.

Biden opened his remarks by saying that Hamas has been reduced to not being able to fight back anymore. That they were no longer a threat to Israel's existence. Holy fucking shit - this was even true on October 7. Those attacks ONLY succeeded because Israel so badly fucked up their response. Hamas has NEVER been an existential threat to Israel - it's just a bunch of angry violent dudes with assault rifles and homemade bombs. Versus one of the most technological advanced militaries in the world backed by the infinite resources of the world's only superpower. That Hamas could not destroy Israel was ALWAYS true.

The Institute for the Study of War/Critical Threats recap for yesterday says that Hamas fired mortars and rockets at the Netzarim corridor. Just south of Gaza City. In the area the IDF has had "under control: since early November. And it was only 5 days ago that Hamas fired a volley of rockets from Rafah to Tel Aviv with a significant number of them evading the Iron Dome. But sure - "Hamas has been destroyed".

The most horrific part of all this, with Hamas still in place and almost certainly stronger than ever - is that all of the destruction was for nothing. Hamas had offered a deal for the return of all hostages way back in October.  I hope that this haunts Biden for the rest of his days - that his fucking racist ass whitey bullshit which lead to a stain on all of human history was all because of his stupid ass racist whitey bullshit. And that he has nothing but death and destruction to show for it.

The New Blogging Deal

 HahHahaHhahahha.  Mission Accomplished.

The deal is literally the same as the deal Hamas offered earlier.

Phase 1 - Israel withdraws from Gaza. Palestinians allowed freedom of movement within Gaza. Most hostages and many prisoners released.  6-weeks.

Phase 2 - The sticking point - a permanent ceasefire. Return of remaining hostages.

Phase 3 - the gruesome part. exchanging corpses.

So some observations - the permanent ceasefire is still the sticking point. It's not guaranteed - but the US and other regional countries are backing is. This is literally the thing that caused Netanyahu to flip his shit last time. IOW, this "new" deal being offered by Israel is literally the deal they called delusional a few weeks ago.

EDIT: Here's a weird piece of strangeness.  Biden opened his statements saying that this was a comprehensive proposal from Israel. Then he closed his statements asking both Hamas and Israel to agree to it. WTF? 

EDIT 2: Here's what Hamas agreed to at the beginning of this month. It is basicallyidentical to this "new" comprehensive peace plan that Biden is pushing. 

Guilty

Pleasantly surprised. A nice feeling for a change.

Community Notes

Yes, Twitter is dead - a heaving mass of racists and 4chan refugees flinging poo at everything that draws close because Elon has decided that those are the voices that need to be amplified. But sometimes we get a reminder of why Twitter was good - even when that reminder is a new thing that Musk introduced.

In the aftermath of the Tent Massacre, Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly tweeted out that she was horrified by the atrocity. It did take over 30 hours for her to say shit about it but eventually she tweeted something out. And then the community notes skewered her and highlighted how full of shit she is. So badly that this tweet is now deleted.

I don't know what that says about how morally bankrupt the whole thing is - that she cannot condemn horrific war crimes and as a result, Canada cannot condemn horrific war crimes - because it is embarrassing for her. I guess the lesson is that genocide is like gang initiation rites - once you're complicit and involved in the criminal enterprise, you're unable to speak out against it because that would be incriminating yourself.

Campaign Slogans

Maybe these aren't important - but good ones seem to have a life of their own. Arguably, being able to craft a slogan that resonates means that the campaign is not out of touch, so maybe it's just that campaign performance and good slogans are both dependent on the same thing - a good campaign run by people who know what they are doing. But even the not amazing ones that we assume are forgettable, we all do still remember.

Yes We Can.

Hope.

Build Back Better.

Those resonated. Even Hillary's "I'm With Her" was a good slogan - it's just that America is misogynist and Clinton really wasn't likable to a very large chunk of the electorate. And of course, Trump's 2016 slogan still serves as a rallying cry for petulant babies wallowing in grievance politics.  MAGA will probably be a lasting scar that we'll not forget even after all of this is over. It's Morning In America and It's The Economy Stupid still live with us -so MAGA will likely stink up the joint long after we've all shuffled off the mortal coil.

Biden's 2024 slogan is "Finish The Job". Now to be clear, this was unveiled back in April 2023, well before circumstances made this an awkward slogan to rally around. "Finish The Job" banners are just not going to work next to "Genocide Joe" protest signs. Or rather, it will work well - just not in a way that helps Biden in the slightest.

And it appears that it is still the slogan - although his campaign team does seem to recognize that now is not the right time to lean into it. But with June closing in and no new slogan in sight, well I guess the plan is for all of this unpleasantness in the Middle East getting wrapped up well before the convention.  Ha-ha, good luck. People are not going to forget.

GBU-39

CNN has an article up where they have an expert identify the munition used in the Tent Massacre. It’s a GBU 39 small diameter bomb made in the USA. A bomb which exploded amongst a number of tents where displaced Gazans where sheltering. In a space believed to be safe. Setting off a firestorm which resulted in massive and horrific casualties. 

An area that should not have been targeted sheltering Palestinians fleeing Israel’s war machine destroyed by fire. A very familiar story that has echoes of the early days of the military campaign. This is what happened at Al Ahli Hospital way back on October 17.  Nobody is following that anymore - there have been so fucking many more atrocities since then - so everyone just accepts the IDF claim that this was the result of a misfiring PIJ rocket. Despite those claims being debunked many times over. 

The Tent Massacre bomb was identified by shrapnel remnants of the tail. Identifying shrapnel pieces seems a pretty conclusive way to narrow down the type of bomb that was used. And someone did try to do that with Al Ahli:

The first piece labeled piece # 1 in the footage resembles a GBU-39 wing. Note that this piece is partially covered in the rubble at one of the ends (contained inside the oval). If we include the covered part, its length matches well that of the GBU-39 wing. The width also matches a GBU-39 wing width.

GBU-39. The US should be proud that they are the exclusive suppliers of Israel’s bomb of choice for creating firestorms that incinerate Palestinians sheltering in tents.  

Red Line Timeline

May 8, Netanyahu has threatened to invade Rafah - No military operations in Rafah without a credible plan to evacuate and protect civilians. [1]

May 16, two days after the IDF enters Eastern Rafah - No "major" military operations. [2]

May 20, hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing Israeli military operations. These are not considered "major" military operations. [3]

May 22, IDF says they have reached the outskirts of Rafah camp - Not "major" because the military operations do not go into "dense urban areas". A reminder, Rafah's population increased by around a million internally displaced people due to the war. It was all densely packed - with tents. [4]

May 28, tanks in downtown Rafah, air strikes hitting tents in designated safe zones west of the operations causing multiple massacres. The Tent Massacre is a "targeted and precise" attack that's justified because Kirby is a fucking racist genocidal ghoul. - Not a major operation - the standard is now "1000s and 1000s of troops moving in a maneuvered, concentrated, coordinated way against a variety of targets on the ground." [5]