Teaching Life, Sir.

I linked the Rafeef Ziadah piece "We Teach Life, Sir" a while back. I linked it because it is an amazingly powerful piece but also I was reminded of the question about "teaching your children to hate" by the images of Israeli children doing genocide pantomine for Purim.

It is important to point out the hypocrisy - but that isn't really keeping in the spirit of Ziadah's work. We Teach Life, Sir is about the unbelievable resilience of the Palestinian people, of Sumud - the steadfastness to the land and the will to resist. I do not have this strength of will nor anything remotely resembling this grace - it is astounding to me and I am amazed by it. And I try to learn these lessons that the Palestinians are teaching every day when they get up. Here is today's lesson I am still trying to absorb.

https://twitter.com/prem_thakker/status/1787893511494267066

Spoiler Alert: the Blogging is Going to Get Worse

You know, at several points in this whole fiasco I've looked at how things have just come together in the worst possible way for the pro-genocide crowd. Stuff like the truce in November ending and then just one week later, the IDF shoots three hostages that had escaped. Or the ICJ ruling coming down and Israel responding by choking the already insufficient supply of aid into Gaza. Or the US declaring the Security Council demand for a ceasefire as "non-binding" a few days before the WCK aid workers were hunted to death. But really - since it's just a constant stream of atrocities out of Gaza, there will always be something that makes Israel look especially bad given the other things going on.

This current set seems especially egregious. Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire deal - and Israel's response is to invade Rafah, the one thing that Biden has said is not allowed (but also committed to not doing anything about it if Israel violates this red line). The Rafah crossing is now an IDF facility, meaning that no humanitarian aid is getting into Gaza anymore - and this comes just after Cindy McCain, in her role as head of the World Food Program, declared northern Gaza to be in a state of "full-blown famine".

"Full-blown famine" means that the death toll from malnutrition now exceeds 2 per 10K population per day. Some 300,000 people remain stranded in northern Gaza - so this means that at least 60 people are dying from starvation every day. And now, the already insufficient trickle of food has been cut off.

Eastern Rafah is under expulsion orders. Many people here, starving and wounded, have been already been displaced multiple times. They don't have the resources to move again - but they are being told that the place they are sheltering will be turned into an official war zone shortly. And there is nowhere for them to go.  Rafah itself has now swelled to something like six times it's normal population. Note - this behaviour is the basis for the IDF's claim to be the most moral army in the world - they are so moral that they will tell people they are about to slaughter that the slaughter is coming soon.

Israel has also escalated their crackdown on "enemy" media. Al Jazeera has been banned from Israel and their offices were raided, with their equipment confiscated. You know, the type of behaviour one would expect from "the only democracy in the Middle East".

Shit is super bad and it looks super bad. It seems like Israel is committed to acting like a cartoonishly evil supervillain. But that's not it. No one does stuff "to be evil" or whatever. This is all just stuff that Israel thinks is right and proper. It is their moral duty to invade Rafah - not doing so is an abdication of their commitment to fight terrorism. It is entirely reasonable to use the power of the state to attack media organizations - that it has taken so long is the actual violation of common sense and international norms. Cutting off food and aid to hundreds of thousands of people already experiencing famine is just good tactics and strategy. 

They actually believe this shit. They still unironically claim the IDF as the most moral army in the world, and would do so even if you were to show them the snuff videos IDF soldiers uploaded to social media. Stuff looks super bad because it is super bad. And that context such as "Hamas has agreed to the ceasefire deal" or "northern Gaza is in full-blown famine" do not play any role in Israeli decisions. They have even told us this before! That the invasion of Rafah is happening regardless of whether there is a deal or not.

What this all means is that I will continue sounding like a broken record. It means that shit is going to get worse. A lot worse. And Israel is going to continue doing what they are doing - actually they will do it harder, they will escalate even more than they already have. Because they believe that what they are doing is just and righteous. They are acting in accordance to their stated convictions and beliefs. And what we are seeing unfold is the actual results of all of that.

The Plot of the Blogging Thickens

 Hamas has accepted the ceasefire deal. 

The Blogging is Getting Worse

 Evacuation order issued for eastern Rafah.

Blogging the Ceasefire Deal Again

This is not the first time I have stated that the Ceasefire talks are pure bullshit. It's been made even more clear by statements from Israel recently, and also confirmed by the US that these talks are not serious. Not in the slightest. There's a sort of big fundamental sticking point to the negotiations that no one has found an answer to. Here is that problem:

Neither the US nor Israel believe that Hamas can be allowed to exist.

That's the problem. They are negotiating a deal with Hamas but their fundamental goals and non-negotiable demands include complete eradication of Hamas. This has been obvious ever since the original truce fell apart at the beginning of December. The US and Israel are both 100% committed to "destroying Hamas". They have both said that there can be no Hamas in post-war Gaza, so any permanent ceasefire can only happen after Hamas has been wiped out or if they unconditionally surrender.

Some people might argue that this is a bad faith negotiating position. Those people would be correct. But also, despised and demonized by the US government.

Now to be clear - Hamas might also be negotiating in bad faith. They might only be pretending to be interested in a cessation of hostilities and will not restrain rocket barrages and other attacks. It's possible - Hamas is a terrorist organization and they likely do not have full and active control over their forces. Maybe they cannot deliver on a promise to abide by the ceasefire or that they don't have any intention of doing so. The problem with that argument is that we know it's not true. The truce at the end of November went along just fine - despite Israel reneging on allowing aid into Gaza. That truce ended only because there was no framework for exchanging the remaining hostages. Also too, it ended at Israel's discretion. Maybe there were some de-minimus hostilities in that period, but nothing serious enough to challenge the truce.

IOW, Hamas has already shown that it is willing to abide by the terms of a truce (although only for a week so far). But as I have previously mentioned - of course they would. A truce/ceasefire will strengthen Hamas and further cement them as the most popular group in the region. A ceasefire is in Hamas' best interest - even if you assume they don't give a shit about what happens to Gaza. Because a ceasefire is a huge win for Hamas - it legitimizes them and massively raises their profile even more than their resistance to genocide already has.

And herein lies the trap that Biden has built for himself (and also the entire Middle East). What's the alternative? The military campaign to "destroy Hamas" has only made Hamas more powerful and influential, now with a massive pool of potential recruits eager to exact revenge.. Anti-Israel sentiment is higher now than at any point in time that I can remember - and Hamas is already way more popular than Netanyahu's fascist government or Biden's complicit one. The harder they go after Hamas, the more legitimacy it accumulates.

So there's the trap. Heads - Hamas wins, Tails Israel and the US lose. A ceasefire makes Hamas stronger. No ceasefire and more military action makes Hamas stronger. What can Israel and the Us do at this point?

What hey fail to recognize is that they have no exit plan. They cannot destroy Hamas with military might - firstly, it's not actual possible. In addition to being a terrorist organization, Hamas is also an idea. The idea of resistance and a sovereign Palestine. You cannot defeat this idea with violence - attempting to do so just makes it more powerful. Which means that at some point, this will end with negotiations that leaves Hamas in charge.

So the choice they have made - to fight Hamas tooth and nail, is doomed to failure. This is going to end with a negotiated peace deal - one that leaves Hamas intact, although possibly rebranded under a different name. And every day they don't accept this fact, this just plays into Hamas' strategy to consolidate their power. It's a case of Heads Hamas wins and tails, Israel and the US lose - but also the game keeps going until a Head is flipped.

Another Update on How the Blogging is Going

It's been a while since I've done one of these, so we're overdue for checking in on the situation in the Middle East and gauging how great things are going for Israel.

Israel had two stated goals with this special military operation: 1. Destroy Hamas and 2. Rescue the hostages. Let's take them in reverse order.

Rescuing hostages. A big fail.  They have rescued three hostages - the same number of escaped hostages they executed for waving a white flag. Less than the number Hamas released unilaterally (four). IOW, in terms of rescuing Israeli hostages, Hamas has done a better job than the IDF. And of course - 105 hostages were recovered by negotiation and a cessation of hostilities. So quite obviously - the rescuing hostages part of it all has been a Big Failure.

The current death toll of Israeli soldiers since the start of the ground invasion is 263. More than the total number of hostages taken. Very strategic strategery here.

Destroying Hamas. Lol, no. Hamas launched rockets during Passover. According to the Institute for the Study of War, they also launched four rockets today. They also note that Hamas has been challenging the Netzarim Corridor - this is the flattened out area Israel "cleared" so they could rapidly deploy right into Gaza.

It looks like the IDF sustained fewer casualties in April than in previous months - but Hamas is still killing them from time to time. So Hamas is still a force that militarily retains the ability to fight inside Gaza with effectiveness. But only inside Gaza - with their only real success outside of their enclave was the surprise terror attack that Israel had the battle plans for a year in advance and decided that this was a good sign to relocate troops away from the Gaza fence. Against almost any other nation, or even Israel itself at a time when there was less hubris and deceit and worship of Netanyahu's strategic genius - adherence to "Cut the Grass" would not have allowed them to fuck that up so badly.

Politically, Hamas is still very popular. I would guess this is a result of being one of the very few groups standing up against genocide:

Before October 7, Fatah would have defeated Hamas in a head-to-head vote of all Palestinians 26 to 22 percent. If elections were held today, Fatah would lose to Hamas 17 to 34 percent.

Saying that Hamas is stronger and more influential now is dead right. Hamas is quite obviously stronger now than they were on October 7.

And what has this huge amount of zero progress cost? Resource-wise Israel is now into big deficits. There's global demands for scrutiny and divestment of arms to Israel. It's being seen by more and more people as the rogue state that it is. There was the ICJ protective orders issued in January and strengthened since then. The ICC is now looking to finally lay charges against Israeli leadership. 

Support in the US, which is funding the genocide, is dropping in the general public despite remaining very high in elected leadership. But even there, cracks are beginning to show. The US has now repeatedly undermined international law and is about to engage in a ridiculous pantomime in order to pretend that they aren't also violating US law. And now, in the face of peaceful campus protests, have gone with a heavy-handed militarized overreaction.

Both countries are increasingly isolated, their reputations around the globe just being torn to shreds. Their support inside their own borders dwindling. The usual defense of calling everybody antisemitic Jew haters losing its power.

In other words - Israel's military campaign is going exactly how you would expect - very similar to the last time we checked, but only more so now. 

The Pulitzer Prize for Being a Cuck

So, as the handful of people who have found these posts already know, I've been commenting over at atrios' place. My early need to vent about war was fired off there - but it obviously wasn't enough and here I am, spilling out thousands of words into the void so they can get outside of my head. Anyways, I mention this so I can do a little "I told you so" dance.

Way back in November (IIRC), I'm not positive about the exact timing - I think this was the moment I first pissed a lot of atriot regulars off. It was a comment about the truce deal and what was going to happen afterwards and I said something along the lines of "how much of a cuck Biden is going to be". It's a bit of a shame that I can't dig up the specific comment as it is buried under a mountain of other comments, because I'm pretty sure I got it exactly right. Sure it's an offensive and demeaning term, loved and used by some of the worst people in the world. But it sure fit the situation at the time, and looking back at it now - well, I'm pretty sure this is one where I do get to pull an "I told you so".

Anyways, I bring this all up because we're potentially at another moment of epic cucking. Here's the context.

They threatened to arrest the dean of the school of journalism that hosts the PULITZER prizes & student journalists if they left PULITZER HALL to report on their own campus.

The Pulitzers are run by the Columbia Journalism School. That school and the prize both came from the endowment left by Joseph Pulitzer. They are very much tied to each other. And now, we just had police forces assault Columbia University (again) and directly threaten the Columbia Journalism School itself inside Pulitzer Hall, warning them that if they try to do journalism, they will be arrested.

The Pulitzer Prizes will be awarded on Monday. Less than a week after this assault.

It's possible that I will be pleasantly surprised. It's possible Columbia Journalism School will display some backbone and conviction to the principles of journalism. 

But it's also possible that another batch of prizes for journalism will be awarded without acknowledging Israel's open assault on journalists in Gaza. In the seven months since October 7th, Israel has killed more journalists and media workers than died in World War 2. Or Viet Nam. Or Russia-Ukraine. Or basically any other conflict in history except the Iraq War - and even there, Israel's journalist kill count is close to half way in less than one tenth the time.

It's also possible that the Pulitzers will go to support the budding fascism movement bent on violently crushing any criticism of Israel or any support of Palestinians. A reminder - the Polk Awards were given out earlier this year and the New York Times got one for their Israel-Palestine coverage - you know, including the major feature spreading the now debunked mass-rape propaganda. 

So I'm actually quite curious and interested to see what the Pulitzers do on Monday. There's an obvious good thing they can do - and then there's flushing their credibility down the toilet. And based on the repeated instances that American institutions have made when presented with this very choice in regards to Israel-Palestine, well I did say that I would be surprised if they did the right thing.