2023-12-12

Blogging the Death Toll - Evidence of Genocide Part 18,000 and Counting

A few days ago, the IDF was saying that it had killed 5,000 Hamas fighters. This was back when the official death toll from the "Hamas-run" Gaza Ministry of Health was 15,000 - so 10,000 civilians. At the time I was mocking how their estimate was ludicrously high - in this best case scenario where the thousands still trapped under the rubble, some of them for over a month, will somehow survive. And even then, Israel is saying they have killed twice as many civilians as Hamas fighters.

Some context before we get into why this statement is further proof of Israel's intent to commit genocide.

The initial death toll from October 7th was pegged at 1,407. This was revised down to "around 1,200" because some of those killed were Hamas fighters. The current death toll of Israelis on October 7th is 1,147. I think it's reasonable to add at least three for hostages that died in the airstrikes. Yes they were killed by US bombs dropped from Israeli warplanes, but they were in Hamas custody at the time - so these deaths are Hamas' responsibility. So at least 1,150 - but less than 1,200. Of these, 300 were IDF. So the Hamas civilian to military kill ratio is 3:1. Meaning that Israel cannot concede any worse than 2:1 or they will be admitting that they target civilians more than Hamas does. To be clear - we already know that this is true, the IDF targets civilians more than Hamas does. But it would be impossible for Israel to admit this.

This is by the official numbers. We know of course that the actual death toll in Gaza is way higher than is being reported. There are more than 5,000 people under the rubble. In the initial days, I was going by scaling the UNRWA death toll - there are roughly 200 UNRWA workers for every Gazan. The UNRWA toll is now 133 - implying a Gaza death toll of around 26K and an Israeli kill ratio of over 4 civilians per Hamas fighter.

So just taking the numbers as presented - Israel does in fact target civilians over military targets more than Hamas does. A result that would be surprising to the IDF fanbois if they could be made to actually engage with it - but one that is actually sadly expected and unsurprising when you look at the scale and nature of the devastation across the Gaza Strip.

This is pretty damning. It's godawful actually. But the story is much worse. These ratios are based on Israel's estimate of 5,000 killed - which seemed impossibly high to me. And it is. 6,000 of those killed are children. In fact, the UN estimates that 2/3 of Gazans killed by Israel are women and children. That's how they got the 2:1 ratio.

IOW, here is how the IDF determines if someone they killed was a "Hamas fighter". Are they a "male and military aged"? That's is. The entirety of the question - are they male and military aged. There is no possibility for someone being male and military aged and not Hamas. Meaning that the IDF literally believes that all Gazans are Hamas. When they say they are going to "destroy Hamas" this is in fact an open call to genocide.

To be clear - quite obviously not all Gazans are Hamas. That's stupid. But it certainly appears to be what the Israelis believe - such as when President Herzog pushed back on the idea that there could be innocent Gazan civilians. He literally suggested that this was impossible and that such people did not exist. So when Israel says they are going to "destroy Hamas" you have to remember that they also believe that all Gazans are Hamas.

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