Since the beginning of this thing, there have been only two acceptable lenses to view Palestinians. Either they are victims in all of this or they are part of Hamas and therefore villains. Thousands of children dead - victims. The monsters that carried out the October 7th attacks - villains. That's it. There is no other option.
That's not what we see in the video and images coming out of Gaza. The thing which made me realize this framing was Biden dismissing the Gaza Health Ministry as a bunch of liars. They are villains because they are "Hamas controlled". Maybe some progressives can see them as victims for being thrust into this situation. But they are neither. They are people who find themselves facing worse conditions than we can even imagine and doing their best to meet it. When those people aren't Palestinians, we call them heroes. Is that controversial? That the Palestinian health care workers struggling to save lives in Gaza's hospitals this past month are heroes? But it's not just the doctors and nurse and medics. People trying to dig survivors out of the rubble with their hands. Running through the streets to transport the wounded because there is no fuel for ambulances. We see people under a vicious siege, with modern military might brought to bear on a population that is majority refugees - and still they rally together to support each other. There's little other option for them. Journalists who have lost their families and friends, and a disgustingly large number of colleagues - they still go out every day to report, to bring us the stories - so the rest of us can bear witness to the tragedy as it unfolds. The conditions right now are such that merely saying the word is considered antisemitic and support for terrorism. Despite the countless words I've spewed about this, I have yet to use it myself. But how else can this be described? The resilience, the defiance, the continued effort at going on in the face of overwhelming disaster - this is resistance. What else can we call the response to an occupying state committing the war of aggression. It is resistance. The Gazans aren't just victims or villains here - they are resisting the aggression of an apartheid state. They are resisting the violence of the force occupying their lands. The world did not begin existing on October 7th - nor did history stop that same day. Things happened before that attack and things continued to happen after it. And they are still happening now. But the stories we get in the West are still stories of victims and villains - when it is clear to anyone willing to look that this is a story of resistance.2023-11-06
2023-11-05
Where Does Blogging Go From Here? Part Two - Don't Ceasefire Until You See the Whites of Their Eyes
We outlined what the demand was in Part One. Ceasefire, humanitarian aid, and a hostages for prisoners "All for All" swap. I also noted that this is what the demand has been for two weeks - possibly longer. So what will it take to get to a ceasefire? Well, two sides need to agree for an agreement to happen - and the terms outlined here are basically the terms that Hamas wants exactly. So the impediment is Israel. Maybe you think this is unfair - I've outlined the Hamas position and said that's what should be in the ceasefire. What about he Israeli position? This is the Israeli position:
- Hamas is utterly destroyed.
- All hostages released.
- No prisoners are released except to the sweet embrace of death.
- Gaza is depopulated and converted into a demilitarized buffer zone protecting Israel from the Sinai peninsula where all the remaining Gazans will be forced to relocate.
The crazy first requirement of Hamas being destroyed doesn't even make any sense. Hamas leadership is not in Gaza - they are in many cities around the world. The military wing of the Al Qassam Brigades has secret leadership - so eliminating them is basically impossible. It operates sort of as a federation of independent cells. Worse still - even if by magic they managed to get "all of Hamas leadership" (whatever that means) targeted and neutralized - new leaders will step up and replace them. Really all they need is a connection with a funding source like Iran - and the ability to recruit fanatics - made a lot easier by Israel committing genocide. But that (even though it is impossible), along with securing the hostage release, are Israel's primary goals.
This is just one of many reasons I believe there will not be a ceasefire agreement in two weeks (although again - I really do wish that I am dead wrong about this). Israel has set unobtainable goals. Their demands cannot be met and certainly not in the manner in which they are pursuing it. Accepting a ceasefire would be a massive stepdown. Netanyahu framed it this way himself - claiming that accepting a ceasefire is the same thing as surrender. As stupid as that sounds - who is Israel surrendering to? - it is essentially correct. Israel isn't really fighting Hamas - this campaign of violence is absolutely not weakening Hamas at all. Hamas leadership is safe in other countries, Hamas funding is probably at all-time highs given global sentiment on the situation. Israel is fighting global opinion - they are trying to do as much genocide as they can before they world cuts them off by forcing a ceasefire.
And that forcing will have to come from US pressure - and that US pressure will only come from public pressure - which the US is all too often happy to ignore. Consider universal background checks - a gun control measure with something like 90% public support, and an issue that comes up after every major mass shooting - so pretty frequently. This is still not a law. So public pressure - while necessary - is going to have to be overwhelming in order to have any effect.
Currently, it is only a tiny handful of electeds have voiced support for a ceasefire - instead there is overwhelming support for MOAR BOMBS. The amount of shifting that has to occur just to get Democrats on side with a ceasefire is massive. So it's going to take time. And lives. Lots of them.
That said, there are some more points to consider. Right now, there's a massive amount of pussy-footing around "humanitarian pauses" instead of a ceasefire. But consider what the difference is. The scope and scale of destruction in Gaza means that no mere "pause" will be enough to stave off massive disaster. The feared disease outbreak in the overcrowded hospitals with no clean water or sanitation are starting to appear. Searching the rubble for survivors is such a massive task that it will take as long as people can con themselves into believing that someone is still holding out. Given a break in the aggression, Gaza will be able to take stock and present to the world a better picture of how horrific the situation is - and it is worse than you think. If there was pressure enough to force Israel into accepting a pause, there will be pressure enough to prevent the war from restarting. A pause would effectively be a ceasefire.
Here's an example. Remember the 20 aid trucks? Israel was forced to allow aid in, so they did their best to make it as paltry and ineffectual as possible. Before October 7th, Gaza was getting 500 trucks per day of humanitarian aid and commercial goods - so allowing 4% of a day's worth of supplies after two weeks of bombing was basically doing nothing. And initially - this was a one-off. It was a single delivery of 20 trucks worth of aid (no fuel allowed!). But once they allowed any trucks in - they had no excuse to let them in again and now they are moving to allowing 100 trucks per day in. It is still woefully inadequate (and no fuel allowed!) but this demonstrates the point. The current murderous campaign of genocide is fuelled almost entirely by rage. If it loses momentum, it is done. If Israel concedes any basic human dignity to the Gazans, they will not be able to take it back.
Reporting now is that Israel is asking for details on how this "pause" will work. Any "pause" must be ineffectual enough that news of how bad things are on the ground in Gaza can not get out. Any "pause" that Israel agrees to must leave open the option to return to hostilities - which is only possible if sympathy for Gazans does not increase in the brief respite period. Any such "pause" will be outright rejected by the world as being a farce and the demands for a ceasefire would only continue.
For this reason, I had initially had a vey dim view of the "humanitarian pause" efforts. Israel will not accept a pause - it is the same to them as a ceasefire. A pause ends the game unless a new terror attack from Hamas or something similar happens - which would also end a ceasefire. The only difference between a pause and a ceasefire is in how it is administered. With a ceasefire, there are official observers and a guarantor nation. There are rules to how those work. A pause is a new made-up thing and it's not clear how they would work. So the devil is in the details. But here is why it might be helpful - it's possible that Israel's attempt to neuter the "pause" enough to have zero effect on the genocide campaign might be poorly executed. It's possible that negotiating the "pause" might result in something that still forces Israel into a ceasefire. It's even conceivable that this happens before two weeks are up - making me absolutely wrong. That's something that I would be more than happy to be wrong about.
2023-11-04
Where Does Blogging Go From Here? Part One - What Even Is "Here"?
This isn't Part 8 because it would be weird to have three or four Part 8's.
So what's your solution?
The rallying cry of centrist dipshits. Pointing out that the incredibly harmful systems in place are not fixing the problems they are meant to fix, but are instead creating a lot of new extra problems - this is forbidden unless you have a perfect solution to replace it. It's a very familiar tactic to criminal justice reform activists, who are constantly told that reducing police budgets cannot be done unless you have a proven plan to eradicate all crime anywhere ever. Mere mountains of data showing that community support programs and social services like supportive housing do a much better job at reducing crime - that doesn't count. You need to prove that it will 100% work in the specific municipality it is proposed for and that the results aren't impacted by any other potential variables and remain robust for decades and also you'll never be allowed to test it anywhere ever. That sort of thing.
So it's a dumb criticism. No, I don't have a magical plan with a 100% guarantee of peace in the Middle East - and even if I did, there is no plan so compelling and easy to implement that it obviously will go forward with zero resistance or pushback from anyone. I mean - no one even gets this as answer to "where do you want to go for lunch?" And this level of justification is never required for plans like "give Israel $14 billion in weapons - also remove any Congressional oversight or even any knowledge or awareness of how that money is spent".
That said - it is a good question that warrants some consideration. What is our solution? What is even our ask other than "stop killing civilians". I mean - "stop killing civilians" is valid enough ask by itself, but it is reasonable to think about what this means. Also, "stop killing civilians" should always be acceptable and it is frankly bonkers that there's a push to silence these calls by equating them with supporting terrorists. It is literally the opposite of terrorism!
It's a huge question, so let's tackle it in steps. Step one is the immediate request. So what is the ask? We already know the outlines of the immediate demands:
- A ceasefire. A real official ceasefire with observers and a guarantor nation.
- Unimpeded access for international humanitarian aid - including fuel for hospital generators.
- Release of all the hostages taken on October 7th. And any other hostages Hamas is holding.
- Release of the thousands of Gazans imprisoned by Israel.
Articulable defined items that directly address the issues. The hostage/prisoner exchange is the most complicated - obviously some Israeli hostages have been killed in the past four weeks. Israel has been bombing the hell out of Gaza this entire time. While it certain it looks like Israel's assault has been indiscriminate, they had to have known about at least some Hamas facilities and resources. Places where Hamas could imprison their hostages - and also high priority air strike targets for Israel. As for the prisoner release - not every Palestinian taken by Israel is a political prisoner. Palestinians can also be criminals, and maybe some of them do actually belong in jail. Still - these types of exchanges have occurred before - although never on this scale. And the other two demands are clear and understandable. These are what the demands were two weeks ago and they will be what the demands are two weeks from now.
Two weeks from now? Well, I wanted to ensure you got the usual dosage of doom that characterizes this new fever fountain of blogging. Blogging never changes after all - including the doom.
Yes, I believe that we'll still be in the current status quo (except with much higher death rates and way more doom ) in two weeks. A ceasefire will only occur when Israel agrees to it and they have indicated that they think this war is going to be long and difficult. So any ceasefire will have to be pushed by the international community - and specifically, by the US. Israel appears to not give a shit what other nations think (other than possibly for purposes of petty revenge - such as denying Irish and Brazilian passport holders access to leave via the Rafah Crossing like they allowed for other foreign nationals) - but the US does have power here. Specifically, billions of dollars of power. I certainly hope to be wrong about this - but I think two weeks before seeing any real movement on a ceasefire is super optimistic.
Blogging Never Changes Part Seven - Context Strikes Back
2023-11-03
Blogging Never Changes Part Six - Context Matters
The Gaza Strip is 365 square kilometers and has a population of over 2 million. For comparison, LEAFS SUCK is 630 square kilometers with 2.9 million residents and Chicago is 600 square kilometers with 2.7 million residents. This is the area that Israel is bombing and now invading with tanks and soldiers. The first week of the campaign, Israel was dropping a thousand bombs a day. And they have only picked up the pace since then. And - an important reminder - they have not stopped.
There was a statistic running around a short while ago - that the number of children killed in Gaza in just three weeks had surpassed the number of children killed across all other conflict zones across the world since 2019. And - an important reminder - it is still going on right now, only at a faster pace.
The current death count is over 9,000. Sadly, this isn't a Dragonball reference - that's the number of people that have been confirmed dead, people whose corpses the Gaza Health Ministry has identified by name. Adding to this sadness is the scope of the undercount. There are hundreds if not thousands buried under the rubble. The deaths in Gaza City over the past two days is almost certainly undercounted as information getting out of there is unlikely with Israeli tanks surrounding the place. The actual death toll is certainly way over 10K now. You might recall that I used the UNRWA Gaza Field Office size to scale things - there are 10K UNRWA workers at that office. This works out to one per 200 Gazans. Now basically the same as the number of dead.
One in 200 dead. In Canada this would mean 190,000 dead. In the US, this would be 1.65 million dead. In less than a month.
Using only the official verified count of 9,000 over 27 days - this is 1,000 deaths every 3 days - 14 people per hour - one person dying from violence every 260 seconds. Non-stop for almost four weeks. And - an important reminder - it has not stopped, but in fact only picked up speed.
One in 200 dead. The US Civil War saw a million people die out of a population of 31 million. 1 in 31 - staggeringly horrific. But it took 4 years - 50 times longer than the bombing campaign in Gaza has lasted. The rate of death in Gaza right now is seven times higher than the scaled proportional deaths from the Civil War. Add to that, roughly 2/3 of US Civil War deaths were from disease. It's hard to maintain hygiene when you're restricted to 1800's technology. The Gaza Strip is now largely without power or medical supplies. Or clean water. While it was already overcrowded before, people have fled to seek protection near buildings that they believe Israel wouldn't target - hospitals and UN schools. Before the bombing, Gaza was substantially denser than the cities I cited earlier - it has only gotten even more crowded as the situation deteriorates. The death toll in Gaza is likely almost all violent deaths and people succumbing to injuries from bombing - the plague deaths have not kicked in yet. And - an important reminder - there is no respite, the overcrowding gets worse as more residential areas are bombed to rubble - because the bombing continues at this very moment.
And yet - people still invoke Israel's right to self-defense. They can look at the carnage and destruction being laid in Gaza and then imply that this is somehow "self-defense". Context matters. Just waiting for the first reporter willing to lose their job in order to ask whatever US spokesidiot whether they honestly believe that what is happening in Gaza right now is Israel defending itself.
2023-11-01
Blogging Never Changes Part Five - Four is Unlucky
One of the foundational aspects of this blog, such as it was, was being late to things. It was envisaged as not-quite-timely observations. Things would happen, people would comment on it, some time would pass, and then I'd get my lick in, snarking at some weird bit of commentary. In part because it was a pressure relief valve - an outlet for me to say shit without alienating people IRL - and thus some time was required for the pressure to build up. So it feels weird to be doing this thing about what's coming next - but that thing that's next has been bearing down on us like a slow motion train crash - it feels like it has been happening for weeks already.
When the Al Ahli hospital was hit - it seemed like something entirely different. Sure the air raids were already very deadly - hundreds of people were dying every day and had been for several days running by that point. What was it that made the hospital disaster so very bad? It was the number of dead. Dozens being killed in a strike was unfortunate, but acceptable. Hundreds is not. That's it - and it is incredibly sad that we value Palestinian lives so little that it takes hundreds of them to raise a response. Killing dozens is okay, killing hundreds is not.
The death toll from the Jabalia air strike is still ticking up, but it has already gone into the hundreds. Maybe the IDF misunderstood how many civilians were going to be caught in this attack or maybe they've adjusted their marker upwards now that we are in the new phase of the war. Regardless, it is a change in scale, from dozens to hundreds, and it provoked responses. It has brought us closer still to that regional war we are supposed to be trying to avoid.
The Gaza hospitals are on the brink now. We were warned about this just over two weeks ago - that fuel and medical supplies were running out. They were running out, but it looks like what happened was that Gazans banded together and scavenged and scrounged resources to keep things going. Some of what they scrounged was from hospitals that shut down due to damage from air strikes. As of yesterday, half of the hospitals in Gaza had already closed. But now, the vinegar they've used as a replacement for antiseptic and the fuel they've siphoned out of vehicles in order to keep power going to dialysis machines - that's running out now too. So this will be another shift - people who are dying in Gaza hospitals because of a lack of supplies, because of the failing ability to provide medical services - that's going to tick up as well. And maybe it'll take a few days for these deaths to fully hit, maybe some patients will hold out for a bit without care. But they will die and their numbers will go from dozens to hundreds.
So what will be the response? Already there are world-wide protests against the genocide. Daily people march for Palestine. The Arab countries who had signed on to the normalization plan are being pushed out of it. As much as the rulers would love to reap the rewards of achieving peace in the Middle East without doing anything to achieve peace in the Middle East - their people will not allow it. Not when the killing is by the hundreds, not merely by the dozens. So the pressure for them to act will increase just as the killing has increased. And maybe they'll be able to buy some time by doing things other than escalating the conflict to war, but there is zero indication that the pressure build up will slow at all. And so war is on the doorstep.
I can see this coming, way out here in my comfortable suburban Canadian home. Everybody sees it coming. So the people who are actually involved and getting reports directly from people on the ground - they must have known it has been coming for ages now.
Maybe they were hoping it wasn't going to happen - maybe they were hoping that Israel would allow fuel into Gaza to keep the hospitals going. They did start allowing food and water last week, so maybe the desperately needed fuel will come too. But it is not coming.
Maybe the people who saw this happening were hoping that Israel wouldn't escalate her attacks in ways that results in hundreds, not dozens of civilian casualties. After all, the IDF clearly recognized that the scope of death at Al Ahli hospital was too much and had to be avoided. But that did not happen - the IDF was happy to claim responsibility for the Jabalia missile strikes.
So what was their plan? If we are to avoid escalation into a wider regional conflict - what is being done about it? These people know it is coming, and they know it is coming soon. And what are they doing?
Biden's administration is adamantly against a ceasefire. The Security Council was supposed to be working on another resolution, this one from the UAE and developed with the backing of all of the elected members. That meeting was Monday but we do not have a Security Council resolution. A UNSC resolution is binding - it would serve notice to Israel that the world can and will take action to end this mindless bloodthirsty rampage. But we don't have a UNSC resolution.
The only answer is that a wider regional war is expected. Maybe the US thinks that this is the preferable outcome - a wider regional war. I cannot for the life of me imagine a scenario where peace is the less preferred alternative, but that seems to be what the decisions are pointing to.
And it is coming. I have been saying for weeks that this situation is going to get worse, and then stay worse for a long time. This is what Israel has promised us. And while it has been getting worse this entire time, the actual serious getting worse part was yet to come. When the numbers killed tick up from dozens to hundreds. Well, that time is at hand. It's already started and there seems to be nothing holding it back.
Blogging Never Changes Intermission - Listening to the People
We take a break from obsessing about the unfolding disaster in the Middle East to look at some stuff closer to home. The Premier of Ontario is Doug Ford, older brother to LEAFS SUCK's most famous citizen Rob the Crack Mayor Ford. Not much of a break - another way-too-long post ending in an angry rant, but at least it's about garden variety corruption instead of thousands of people dying violent deaths.
The current scandal that's plaguing the government is one that's been brewing now for over a year. The precipitating incident that set it all off was when Doug removed environmental protections for a bunch of properties in what we refer to as the Greenbelt. Doug has always been suspected of being on the take for land developers - in fact, this wasn't even the first time the whole Greenbelt thing was brought up. In the campaign for his first term, there was a leaked video of Doug addressing a group of developers telling them that he was totally going to open up the Greenbelt to development. Response was swift and decisive - this idea was so unpopular that he reversed his position. <a href="https://ontariopc.ca/ontario-pc-leader-doug-ford-promises-not-to-touch-the-greenbelt/">This is still posted on his political party's website</a>:
“The people have spoken – we won’t touch the greenbelt. Very simple. That’s it, the people have spoken. I’m going to listen to them, they don’t want me to touch the greenbelt, we won’t touch the greenbelt. Simple as that.”
Anyways, last year his government passed a law removing 7,400 acres of land from the Greenbelt. Unsurprisingly, the reaction was swift and strong. People were outraged again. But Ford, fresh from an electoral victory that saw his majority in the legislature increase - pushed forward. And this is where the democracy thing happened. Journalists at the Toronto Star and the Narwhal conducted an investigation - a very simple one, guided by one of the founding principles of investigative journalism - "follow the money". Turns out that the overwhelming majority of land being opened up belonged to a small handful of developers. All of whom were coincidentally max donors to the governing party. Well, the news stories provided an opening for the Opposition to accused the government of corruption and push for investigations by our Auditor-General and Ethics Commissioner. And the media investigating the story did not let up either. So we had a year of revelations, eventually leading to a pair of reports in August from the government excoriating the process.
Ford's government of course pretended like the reports were unimportant and continued to push forward with the scheme. But the writing was on the wall for it and a series of reversals and concessions followed with a handful of resignations and the eventual surrender of returning the removed lands to Greenbelt protection. It's a fun story with crazy details. $8.3 billion in property value, thick manilla envelopes getting handed from developers to political staff, a trip to Vegas and a meeting during a massage session, some dude named "Phoenix Kiss" - who ends up being the chief henchman to Mr. X. I encourage people to look into it themselves. It's really mind blowing how brazen a lot of this stuff was - and how utterly ridiculous too,
So what is it about this story that's bugging me? I mean aside from the fact that my stupid fucking fellow Ontarians would happily re-elect this corrupt piece of shit again in a heartbeat (despite the fact that this Greenbelt thing has now progressed to the criminal investigation stage)? It's sort of related to that faith my neighbours have in the governing party. It's this - media have been playing this policy reversal as a good thing - as proof that Doug Ford listens to the people. When quite clearly and obviously - it is the opposite that is true. Again, let me note that this is not the first time Doug has tried to open up the Greenbelt - and when caught, he said that he listened to people and then promised to leave the Greenbelt alone. He didn't.
Ford's government has backtracked on a lot of things. During the pandemic, he was going to empower police to just lock people up for shits and giggles. Then the police forces across the province simply said that this law was bullshit and they simply weren't going to enforce it. Doug reversed on that. Doug redesigned our license plates and launched new ones basically on a whim. Turns out that the plates were not legible after sundown as they reflected so much light that they simply could not be read if there were headlights on them. He reversed on that. There are plenty of other items too. The main thing seems to be that Doug is full of ideas - mostly stupid pig-ignorant moronic ideas. Ideas that everyone he talks to about them tell him he's a fucking idiot for having. Well, he now has the power to make those ideas a reality and he keeps learning that the meanies who told him he was a fucking idiot are 100% right.
So this is the thing about it all which pisses me off most. If Doug "listened" or "learned" from these fiascoes, you might expect a bit of humility when having to reverse his position - and in this case for the third time in six years on one very specific issue. But no - all of this is actually examples of how he's great and his critics, who were right, are bad people.