Low Controversy Blogging

I know that some of the things I've blogged might seem like some real "out there" positions, so I'm going to try to do some low controversy blogging. Just writing about things on which there is very little disagreement. I'll start with some things which I believe everyone agrees are true:

• The situation in Gaza is disastrous. It's horrifically bad. It needs to stop months ago.
• The amount of humanitarian aid getting into Gaza is and has been woefully inadequate for over half a year now. It is desperately needed, and ready to be delivered - but it is just not getting through in anywhere near sufficient quantities.
• Netanyahu is a fascist monster. And the people propping up his government are extremist right wing nutjobs. Arguably terrorists but certainly people who unquestionably want genocide in Gaza.
• At least some units in the IDF have done some super bad shit. They have behaved in completely unacceptable fashion and the IDF itself has done basically nothing to prevent or punish this unacceptable behaviour.

Is this not what the talking heads call "consensus reality"? That list is not a list of arguments - it is a list of observations. These statements are not controversial - they are just a description of the situation.

If that is the case, then what defense is there for people refusing to call for a Ceasefire Now? Is there any defense of stopping Israel from continuing to do what it is doing to Gaza? Because as far as I am aware, the entirety of the argument justifying Israel's actions is "BUT HAAAMMMAAAAASSSS!!!!"

Is that also a low controversy statement? That defenders of Israel's military campaign just simply do not engage with facts? That they do not contest the arguments for Ceasefire Now - they just discount them completely without considering them at all. And in that group I include the government of the USA. I am suggesting that the Biden Administration simply does not engage with the facts at all, and instead just dismisses them completely by saying "we've asked Israel to investigate itself".

Is that something we can all agree on? I'm not saying here that they are doing this out of malice or ill will, just that this is what they are doing. They see the facts on the ground - the situation as described - and they are actively impeding efforts to stop it from getting worse. They are in fact enabling it by continuing to supply the bombs and munitions being used against Gaza. 

Is that also a low controversy statement? Something we can all agree on?

On May 8th, Antony Blinken is due to present to Congress, his determinations on whether Israel is in violation of international humanitarian law. He is going to state whether or not continuing to arm Israel is consistent with US laws that prohibit military aid from going to units that have committed gross human rights violations. He is going to explain whether or not Israel is actively preventing humanitarian aid from reaching the people who it is intended for and who have a crisis level desperate need for it. This will happen with ICC warrants for Israeli leaders looming in the background or already issued - and with an IDF incursion into Rafah either about to happen or already underway.

Does anyone think Blinken's determinations are going to be low controversy?

Six Months in a Leaky Blog

 Here's a thing. Let me quote it:

SCOOP: I reviewed an internal State Dept memo, parts of which was classified, that included the most extensive and serious to date warnings to Secretary Blinken over Israel’s possible non-compliance with international humanitarian law.

Just so we're clear on this - Hümeyra Pamuk is saying that a source leaked classified information to her. The actual contents of the leak are completely unsurprising. I mean - "NEWSFLASH - Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza" would be considered a joke.

The actual story here - well there's three levels to it, IMO. First - "US Government Analysis is that Israel has committed war crimes". Secondly - "someone with access to very high level State Department docs is leaking them". Lastly, but most importantly - "thus far, the Biden Administration is not rolling out an investigation and massive crackdown on leakers".

First level - Israel is obviously committing war crimes. This is evident to even the stupidest morons. But for many months, the official US position on it was like "nuh-uh, no way!" Which has truly damaged them in some very serious ways. There are just so very many things even specifically related to Gaza that the US has expressed no opinion on but that did not happen with the suggestion that Israel is violating interntaional law. Maybe ignoring it was their intention here - the statement was usually "we have no evidence of Israeli war crimes". But the infinite levels of condescension and smugness coming off the likes of Kirby, Miller, and Blinken meant that this came across as the mere suggestion of blatantly obvious fact was some sort of insult or affront to justice or whatever. That just pointing out things which are obvious to any rational observer was anti-semitism. The assholes on the podium really did pushback on this question  way harder than "we're looking into it" - they just flatly denied easily observable reality.

So the fact that four US bureaus and USAID all recognize that Israel is doing war crimes and violating both international and US laws is not surprising. The news part of it is that they have written these assessments down and delivered those reports to Blinken. They have not been stuck in a "we're looking into it" loop where the reports get delayed so there's nothing in writing. These bureaus have basically said "fuck your plausible deniability - here's evidence of your complicity in writing. Do something about it."

Level two. It's my impression that the Biden Administration has been pretty good at containing leaks. Now this view might be coloured by the last guy where government was so dysfunctional, leaks were commonplace. Just a constant stream of leaked information. Now, Biden did have the weird case of the weirdo who leaked secret military analysis for Minecraft clout, but this is a substantially different kind of leak. Also too, there's the never-ending "leaks" of how Biden is really mad at Netanyahu this time around. Those are different too.

This time - a multi-bureau memo and the USAID assessment. Plus a couple weeks ago, the leak that Blinken was sitting on Leahy Law reports and the leaked cables showing the US lobbying other countries to vote against Palestinian membership to the UN. These are leaks aimed at changing US policy. They are leaked due to disagreement with what the US is doing. It seems to me that this is new. The only other times the US had inconvenient information about their genocide complicity that I remember are the reports of Biden using emergency measures to bypass Congress in sending Israel more bombs. But those weren't leaked - they had to be reported and documented and the press just found those reports. IOW, Blinken had, up until mid-April, been running a tight ship with very few loose lips. And that's now no longer true. That's why I think the leaks happening are actually significant news.

The real kicker though - where's the crackdown? At a minimum, these leaks are highly embarrassing and damaging to Blinken - and they could run all the way up to being evidence of the US knowingly enabling genocide. But no one is out there saying that they need to crackdown on leakers. Investigating the leaks is the reflexive response, and we're not seeing that - at least not yet. And that has really got me wondering why. I want to believe that the bureaucrats have finally had enough and won't participate in genocide anymore and are now actively working to prevent it. I recognize that this is pretty fucking naive, but I'm having trouble thinking of an alternate explanation. So, I'm hopeful that we're finally at the point where staff discontent at senior leadership using them to support genocide is strong enough that the podium shitbags have to stop doing it. That the assholes have to just take these leaks proving them liars and war criminals because acting against it would result in them going to war with their own staff.

It's one thing when the Israeli Foreign Minister accuses the US State Department of being Hamas, but it would be quite another if Anthony Blinken were to do it - even though that's almost certainly what he wants to do right now.

How do You Lay Down Arms if You Need Arms to Lay Things Down?

So here is an interesting thing. Let me quote the lede:

A top Hamas political official told The Associated Press the Islamic militant group is willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel and that it would lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders.

Now let me get to the interesting part of it. Like you, when I read that I thought "dude is lying." That's what you thought too, right? It's just bullshit. And that's the interesting part - our reaction to news like this.

We respond that way because Hamas is a terrorist organization. They don't know anything other than the threats or use of violence. They have no respect for laws or civilian life - as was made very clear on October 7th. So this claim is an obvious lie. They are The Bad Guys, there is no way they could possibly be on the side of peace and de-escalation. It's just not credible.

Until you actually think about it - which you should whenever your beliefs are based around "those guys are Evil and they will Do Evil because they Are Evil" and literally nothing more.

Obviously, a sovereign Palestinian State and an end to the bombing would be an immense benefit to Palestinians. But, as I have noted before (despite people pretending otherwise in order to further their racist dreams of genocide) - Hamas is not Palestine and Palestine is not Hamas. 

Now a big part of the reason Hamas exists is to oppose the occupation - Hamas literally stands for Islamic Resistance Movement - so presumably, they would not be necessary if Palestine existed as a sovereign state. Certainly, this would impact their appeal as a movement. So it does make sense - a Palestinian state is essentially "Mission Accomplished" for them and they could pack up their guns afterwards. But this of course is the "haha, were you born yesterday?" take. It's wildly naive to think that terrorists would just give up on violence once they started getting their demands agreed to. If this is your view, I know this Nigerian prince who really wants to do a business deal.

But once again - we are back to the initial problem. Hamas will Do Evil because they Are Evil. Which is just as naive if not more so.

So what is the non-naive way to think about this then? How do we think about this realistically? Simple - we assume that Hamas will act in its own self-interest. We assume that they are selfish and that they will do what's best for Hamas. So obviously, laying down their arms and giving up their power is the opposite of what's best for Hamas. Right?

Wrong. They are offering that as an exchange - in return for giving up their arms, they would get a sovereign Palestinian state - a new nation where they are far and away the single most popular movement. They are asking for a country where they will easily be swept into power in free and fair elections. Their country - which they would be in charge. A country that would no longer be under occupation and siege.

The deal they are putting forward is that they will stop being terrorists and give up violence if they are legitimized as the actual leaders of the country - with all that this entails, like being able to make treaties with Iran for example. This would move them out of being internationally recognized as criminals - with the responsibility of "governing" a territory where their enemy controls the borders and all foreign relations - to being a legitimate government. It's a fucking massive boon to them - of course it's a serious offer on their part! 

It's like a bank robber saying "I'll stop robbing banks if you just give me everything inside the bank and then expunge my criminal record". And our response is "Bullshit. What do you get out of this? Obviously you are only interested in pointing guns at people. This is not a serious offer." 

Come on. Who is being naive here? It's a farcically ludicrous position - a child's "cops and robbers" view of the world. And yet it is the one we all assume. And to me, that's the interesting part of it.

Results in the Days Ahead

No results.

Literally - nothing.

"Oh yes, gross violations oh human rights occurred, but it's okay because it's Israel and they say they are going to super duper do something about it."

Blinken needs to be hounded at every possible opportunity to explain what these serious measures are that Israel has taken. Because he will have bupkes. Zilch. Nada. Just "trust these human rights violators. They say they are dealing with it - and if that's not good enough for you, you're anti-semitic."

If I were King of the World - I would abdicate immediately because no one person should have that much power. But the temptation to ensure that Blinken never sees the outside of a very small jail cell for the rest of his natural life would be very hard to resist.

The Kids These Days are Alright for Blogging

As an old - I totally get the impulse to look at "kids these days" and think about how naive and ignorant they are. About how they are so out of touch with the "real world" and how they just don't understand how things actually work. Kids these days, amirite!

This past week, Gaza protests exploded across the US and other parts of the world.

This weekend will likely be the start of the Rafah ground invasion that everyone has ben saying will be disastrous.

We are at yet another precipice of "it is going to get worse" and it is soul crushingly sad and maddeningly frustrating - this is the best I've got at finding a silver lining. Just noting that at least some people understand what is going on and are willing to act on it.

Blogging the Days Ahead

I told you to expect it.

Rumour has it that Blinken is going to designate one IDF group, the Netzah Yehuda Battalion, as ineligible to receive US military aid. For context, while Israel does have conscription, Netzah Yehuda does not have any draftees but instead is an all volunteer unit with members recruited out of Israel's far right ultra-orthodox religious sects. This part of Israel society has been exempt from mandatory military service - something they are looking to change now - so it's this battalion that represents where the IDF is headed.

There's some reporting about how Netzah Yehuda is responsible for 20% of the crimes where the IDF got indictments against their soldiers (this is prior to October 7) - but this isn't a useful statistic. The IDF almost NEVER holds their soldiers responsible for anything. This 20% actually represents 2 cases out of 11 from over the span of five years (2017 to 2021 inclusive). That said, the work done by Yesh Din on this is very useful as they provide a synopsis for each of the 11 cases.

In February 2019, five soldiers and an officer with the rank of lieutenant from the 97th Netzah Yehuda Battalion were put on trial. According to the indictments, the soldiers punched a father and son who had been detained and beat them with various objects. The victims were handcuffed and blindfolded at the time. One of the soldiers filmed the abuse and the military court cleared the footage for publication. The five soldiers were convicted of aggravated physical abuse, negligent harm, and misconduct. As part of a plea bargain, the military court sentenced three of the soldiers to six months in prison and a demotion. Another soldier convicted of the detainees’ abuse was sentenced to five and a half months in prison and a demotion, and the fifth soldier was sentenced to two months in prison and a demotion. The military court sentenced the officer to 60 days in prison and a demotion to the rank of private.

There's that harsh military discipline we expect from the IDF. /s Of note - these guys were not booted from the military and may very well be serving in Gaza at this very moment. Here's the other case:

Three indictments were filed in 2021 against three soldiers of the 97th Netzah Yehuda Battalion for aggravated physical abuse with a conspirator. According to the indictments, the three soldiers beat and physically abused a detained Palestinian. One of the soldiers pressed his weapon to the detainee’s head and threatened him, saying, “How about I shoot you...”. The other two soldiers relentlessly punched the detainee and beat him with their weapons while he was handcuffed, blindfolded, and lying on the floor of the military vehicle. Corporal H.A.K. was convicted of aggravated physical abuse with a conspirator and sentenced to 165 days in prison, a suspended prison term and a demotion. Sergeant S. A. was convicted of aggravated physical abuse with a conspirator, obstruction of justice and misconduct. He was sentenced to 135 days in prison, a suspended prison term and a demotion. Despite the serious charges, one of the indictments (Court-Martial Case Central (District) 282/21) was canceled. Yesh Din has no information about the reason for the cancellation.

Anyways, the 20% isn't particularly meaningful. From that time frame, 1,260 complaints about abuse of Palestinians were filed - and 11 resulted in indictments. For reference, this time frame (2017 to 2021) would have included the Great March of Return.

Anyways, the point I would like to bring up is - how the fuck can this be applied to one unit and one unit only? It would be reasonable if this was a rogue unit that went off the rails - but it isn't. It's the model unit for future Israeli military operations. And it is an inseparable part of the IDF. If the US has problems with what Netzah Yehuda has done, then their issue is with the government of Israel - not with that one unit. And to support that assertion, let me cite each of the three members of the war cabinet:

Netanyahu:

The U.S. is reportedly considering sanctions against the Netzah Yehuda, an Israeli Defense Force unit linked to violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday he would fight the sanctions “with all my strength”—joining liberal and conservative members of the Knesset in condemning the possible move shortly after the U.S. approved a $26 billion aid package for the Israeli military.

Gallant: 

“The entire defense establishment, the IDF and the State of Israel support you, appreciate you and strengthen you in your operations to protect the State of Israel,” Gallant told the Netzah Yehuda troops, according to his office.

And Gantz: 

The ‘Netzah Yehuda’ battalion is an inseparable part of the Israel Defense Forces. It is subject to military law and is responsible for operating in full compliance with International law.

I suppose the follow-up question to Blinken would be - given the huge chasm between how the US views Netzah Yehuda and how the State of Israel sees them - why do you place any value whatsoever on Israeli investigations into wrongdoing? Quite obviously, the Israeli standard for this sort of thing is unbelievably deficient. 

Sometimes the Genocide Justification Slips Right by You

It's one of those blue-check powered long tweets, so it hardly seems worth pointing out if it - but there's an important point here I feel has to be made.  Here's the tweet. I'll summarize his argument:

Protests against the Viet Nam War were legitimate and you can tell because they did not unfurl the flag of the enemy or cheer for the Viet Cong. These things are not true of the pro-Palestine protests where there are Palestine flags everywhere.

A lot of people have hit back on him by pointing out that Viet Nam War protests did in fact feature support for the Viet Cong and NVA. He sidesteps this by saying that those flags and cheers were fringe extremists - whereas Palestine flags are rampant at current rallies.

But no one is noting the actual problem with his argument. And that is that he is a genocidal fucking monster. Let me clarify the point.

Palestine =/= Hamas..

The flag of Palestine is not the flag of Hamas. It is not the flag of "the enemy" - it is the flag of the victims. But here we have this shitbag fucking asshole trying to conflate the two. He's saying that the flag of Palestine is the flag of terrorism. He's saying that all Palestinians are terrorists and therefore are legitimate targets. He is echoing Israeli President Isaac Herzog's genocidal claim that there is no such thing as an innocent Gazan. It's genocidal and he should feel deep shame for having put it into the public.

Expect Blogging in the Days Ahead

So Blinken has responded to the ProPublica article by saying he's made "determinations" and we'll see them in the days ahead. Just for context - some of the violations in those reports Blinken has been sitting on pre-date October 7.  It's just that the massively increased shipments of bombs and munitions since then have made these "determinations" much more urgent - as in "sit in a briefcase for months and only act when news leaks out and gets reported" urgent.

While we're on the topic of what Blinken sees in the "days ahead"....

November 29. 2023

There are important questions about its governance, its security, its reconstruction.  A few – a couple of weeks ago in Tokyo I laid out some basic principles that we see as being necessary.  But also, the day after the day after, which is how do we get on a clear path to meeting the legitimate political aspirations of the Palestinian people, which really, in our judgment, is the only way to durable peace, durable security for everyone, starting with Israel and Israelis. 

But these are conversations that we’ll pursue in the days ahead, in the weeks ahead, in the months ahead.

Followed by 

January 6, 2024

Third, we will focus on the steps that remain to make sure that October 7th never happens again and that we get on a path to a sustainable, peaceful, secure future for everyone.  That starts with the work that’s going to be necessary in Gaza itself to rebuild, to have security, to have Palestinian-led governance...

So the work that needs to be done to get on that first path, the steps that need to be taken, the commitments that countries need to make – this is what we’ll be talking about in the days ahead.

How's that going? The UNSC voted on full admission of Palestine to the UN this past week. 12 votes in favour, two abstentions, and the US vetoed it.

January 7, 2024

So, through all of these lines of effort, we’re determined to do everything we possibly can to ameliorate the situation for men, women, and children in Gaza when it comes to food, when it comes to humanitarian assistance more broadly.  This is an effort that’s absolutely essential, and it is imperative – imperative – that we maximize assistance to people in need.  Not only do we get it to Gaza and into Gaza, but once it’s in Gaza, that it can be effectively distributed to people who need it everywhere in Gaza.  We’ll be working on that in the days ahead as well. 

Since that time, USAID confirmed that Northern Gaza is in famine and Israel was forced to allow more aid in after hunting down foreign aid workers and slaughtering them like animals - but got around this by only letting through half empty trucks.

Actually, let me let Anthony Blinken totally gloss over three months of "days ahead" with his statement on April 9, 2024.

Just yesterday, more than 400 trucks were cleared to go into Gaza, and that is the most since October 7th on any given day.  But what matters is results, and sustained results, and this is what we will be looking at very carefully in the days ahead.

Again - half empty trucks. Also, still below the minimum number that aid agencies are saying would be the absolute minimum requirement (500 per day).

I think you get the idea.  "Days ahead" means - don't bug me, I'm busy covering up for a genocide. There are a lot of these "days ahead" statements that are just plain ludicrously comical, so I will end off with the most egregious one I found. This one is from October 13, 2023:

I mentioned as well that we’re very actively engaged with UN relief agencies, with the ICRC, with others to address the acute humanitarian needs of people in Gaza – to protect them from harm and make sure that they have the ability to get what they need.  We need to ensure, for example, that there are safe areas in Gaza for civilians.  We’re working through the details on that, and more to be said in the days ahead, but that’s a priority for us.

Edit: fixed a link 

Pay No Attention to the Genocide Behind the Curtain

A reminder - Iran's retaliatory strike for the bombing of an embassy has resulted in one injured girl and reported damage only to a military air base. And while the US is frantically waving its arms in order to head off any escalation in the Middle East, they will not be able to prevent their top spokesmonsters from whining constantly about Iran. Because they need the cover.

I already noted the Wash Post story about Israel's bullshit about the murder of Hind Rajab, her family, and the paramedics sent in to save her.

Earlier this week, it was noted that the former Israeli general in charge of the WCK air strike investigation is the CEO of the company that made the missiles which killed the aid workers.

On Tuesday, UNRWA released a report on how Israel treats Palestinian detainees and prisoners.

Yesterday, there was this ProPublica article about how the special Leahy Law committee for Israel has recommended sanctions against Israeli military and police units.

All while Gaza starves. The famine continues - and Israel's claims to have increased aid are being debunked by noting that while it may be more trucks going through, the trucks themselves are half empty.

But don't worry about that. What about Iran! I mean if you think this pesky genocide thing is more important than what Iran did then you are the monster.

One final note - from Jon Stewart's bit on Monday. All of this is "justified" by claiming that this is about the very existence of Israel. If the US does not fully support genocide, then all those terror-loving Arabs surrounding the Only Democracy in the Middle East will do a million 9-11's and eradicate Israel. A totally not racist belief at all. /s

The Daily Show noted that the Iranian attack was intercepted with assistance from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen.

Very Serious and Believable Blogging Investigations

Way back at the end of January, we were all captured by the story of Hind Rajab.  The five year old girl stuck in a car with the dead bodies of her family, begging to be rescued over the phone. A rescue mission was organized and two paramedics went out to get her, only to be killed 50 metres away from the car. Hind was also killed. The IDF did not allow the bodies to be retrieved for twelve days.

The IDF of course denied any involvement in the killing. They also denied that they were in communication with the paramedic team and had okayed the rescue. And the US said - okay this is good enough for us.

Late in February, Al Jazeera published a story showing satellite images of Israeli tanks near the car, despite the IDF claiming that none of their vehicles were in the area. But it's Al Jazeera so the State department ghouls just ignored it.

Now, it's the Wash Post. They've confirmed the satellite imagery. They spoke with various munitions experts. They looked at video from the recovery team, twelve days after the killing when the IDF finally allowed access, and identified a munitions fragment of in the video as a 120 mm tank round compatible with the IDF Merkova tank - and by its serial number, as a round made by the US in November 1996. They confirmed that the ambulance rescue mission was coordinated with COGAT.

Matt Miller says that they are going to ask Israel for comment. Waiting for someone to ask Miller if any of this affects the faith they have in Israel's "investigations". 

Trolley Blogging

One of the things I keep discovering about the Gaza genocide is that all the shit I think is horrible is in fact a lot worse. I see the same stuff getting reported that everyone else does and have the same initial horrified response - but then I think about it some more and realize that I didn't understand how truly bad it was - and probably still don't.

Here's a less directly horrific but still terrible example of that. There's a meme about the trolley problem called "you can only watch" that's been particularly poignant in these times.

But, as I said, it's worse. We're not just watching. We're actively looking away so that we can go to work at the trolley factory. And when anyone voices any concerns about what these trolleys are doing, we're told that trolleys are an important tool in fighting climate change and that concern for the people getting slaughtered is actively opposing public transit and being pro-global warming.

Are We the Baddies?

As always with posts like this, I have to start off by stating that I do note support Iran. It is an autocratic theocracy run by extremist religious nutjobs. Human rights violations in the Islamic Republic are commonplace and I do believe that they are engaging in clandestine activities that harm regional and global stability.

But - objectively speaking - is the West not worse? I mean, I guess we're not as autocratic nor theocratic - and there are plenty of secular nutjobs interspersed with the "Mission from God" folks. But in terms of being a threat to regional and global stability, what Iran is doing seems is practically benign.

Let's just consider the situation as the fucking racist genocidal sociopaths at the US State Department see it. On October 7th, Hamas attacked Israel - killing over a thousand people and kidnapping hundreds more. In response - Israel has killed or injured over a hundred thousand, subjected hundreds of thousands more to famine like conditions, and displaced millions of people in Gaza, a territory with a population of 2.3 million. And the US says "this is regrettable but acceptable and we will provide infinite support to ensure it continues".

In comparison - Israel attacked an Iranian embassy in Syria, killing seven people. In response Iran does the following:

• Sought redress at the UN, which the US and its allies veto. For reference, there is still no official UNSC statement about the bombing of an embassy - a week and a half later.
• Offers to forego retaliation if there is a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, which is denied.
• Launches a counter-attack which damages military targets and results in one girl getting injured.
• Says they are done with retaliation and that was the extent of it.

And now the nutjobs are out for blood, demanding a retaliatory strike against Tehran. So who are the badd guys here?

Okay, that was the post. What follows is random thoughts about the military implications of the strike. And this information may be dubious as no one wants to admit anything - but this attack does not look good for Israel. At all. Why do I say this even though 98% of the attack was intercepted? The reports are that 7 missiles went through and that these were 7 out of 7 of the hypersonic missiles that Iran launched - 5 of which hit Nevatim Air Base, and all of which were launched from Iran. IOW, Iran has established that they can reach fairly deep into Israel whenever they want and with a fair degree of accuracy. Despite the interception effort being backed up by multiple Arab states and a full on US carrier group.

Iran now also has information on the extent and capabilities of the missile defense systems. They now know exactly where the Iron Dome facilities are (and did I mention that they also have the ability to reach into Israel with hypersonic missiles with a fair degree of accuracy?) and which states will go all out to defend them (at enormous political cost to Jordan). At the cost of a bit more than three hundred drones and missiles. All that was missing from this attack was one hypersonic to have "misfired" and landed harmlessly in the Red Sea at a range which implies that Iran could take hit  USS Dwight D Eisenhower if it wanted to. Maybe Iran doesn't have that range - but pretty sure that the DoD is shitting bricks about it. This is almost certainly just coincidence, but 7 hypersonic missiles also coincides with the number of missile defense ships in Carrier Strike Group 2 (3 cruisers and 4 destroyers). Maybe a missile actually did hit the Red Sea and we're just not hearing about the "misfired" weapon since it didn't actually do anything. On the plus side, misfired missile or not, the US has already stated that they will not support a counterattack into Iran. That is a positive sign. Unfortunately it is one I have almost zero faith in - six months of admonishing Israel for killing too many civilians with no reduction in the supply of bombs will do that to your credibility.

Thunder Bay Owes Georjann Morriseau an Apology

Today, Sylvie Hauth the former Police Chief of Thunder Bay, has been charged with obstruction of justice, obstruction of a public official, and breach of trust by a public officer.

Here's a fun bit of this news - she announced her retirement the same day that the civilian oversight agency announced that they would hold hearings about her behaviour. Her retirement meant that those hearings never happened. A lesson learned (which has been blatantly obvious for a long time) is that if you are implementing police reform - ensure that your oversight agency had mandate over former police officers who committed their violations while they were police officers. That also means that these oversight agencies need to be able to impose penalties beyond even the harshest punishment a police officer can possibly imagine - losing the badge. Literally worse than capital punishment! /s Anywho - I believe these charges are related to Hauth's campaign to discredit Georgjann Morriseau, the Thunder Bay Police Services Board Chair at the time. And this was possibly related to recent reports of Thunder Bay Police being deeply and intensely racist and completely indifferent to the killings of multiple Indigenous youth. This period of time put Thunder Bay up as the number one contender against Winnipeg for being Canada's Most Racist City.

So hooray I guess for getting to actual charges? Anyways, the reason I'm mentioning this is that - yes there has been coverage of the arrest of and charges being laid against a former police chief. But AFAICT, there has been zero information about the victim. No one has yet to report how Georjann Morriseau feels about this, nor has anyone offered up any apology to her. In fact, none of the stories I've seen thus far even mention what the charges are about or names Morriseau at all.

Anyways, if you're looking into information as to what a police chief possibly could have done to warrant getting criminal charges - you'll have to go back to when the civilian oversight board announced hearings. And again, those hearings never took place because Sylvie Hauth resigned.

UPDATE: I was mistaken about no one discussing the actual things that Sylvie Hauth is alleged to have done. There is ONE news story from April 12th that covers it - and weirdly, that fact makes the news sites look even worse. The one story that covered it was the Canadian Press wire service.

Independent Blogging Investigations

So the "independent investigation" into the strike that killed the World Central Kitchen workers which found that it was all a big oopsie? Well, you already know that it was conducted by an IDF veteran but did you know this?

The investigation into Col Mandel and his colleagues was led by retired Maj Gen Yoav Har-Even, president and CEO of Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, sparking claims of bias.

The IDF is one of Rafael's biggest buyers. The company, which sells nearly half of its arms to Israeli clients, makes the 'Spike missiles' which are reported to have been used to kill the aid workers.

Judging Things by Different Standards

There's a lotta calls for Sotomayor to retire so that Biden can appoint a replacement. Call it post-RBG syndrome. There's been some pushback suggesting that this is racist and sexist - demanding that the only ever Latina SCOTUS justice step down. Also there's backlash from institutional power defending folks who reflexively believe that any criticism of powerful people is the same as violent terrorism.

I'm anti-authority (I know - shocking admission) - but I have to agree with the Sotomayor defenders. It's racist and sexist.

Justice Sotomayor is 69. This isn't young, but it's way lower than the age that the rumbling for retirement gets trotted out for non-Latinas. For example:

RBG herself, did not face pushes for retirement until Obama's second term. So the early calls for RBG to retire - which were vehemently opposed I'd like to note - did not start until 2012 at the earliest, when RBG was 79. Two and a half presidential terms older than Sotomayor is now.

The calls for Stephen Breyer to retire only began in 2021, after Joe took the oath in the wake of a literal attempted insurrection. He would have been 81. Meaning that during Obama's second term, he would have been 73 to 78 - and no one said shit.

I have disagreements with all of the SCOTUS justices, but I find that Sotomayor is the least likely to do shit that pisses me off.  And based on the weird index they created for this, Sonia Sotomayor is indeed the most Liberal justice on SCOTUS - and by a significant margin.  More liberal than RBG. In fact, among the most liberal justices that SCOTUS has ever had with only two previous justices that have rated as more so.

Look, I acknowledge that losing her and having a GOP asshole like Trump picking her replacement, that would be super bad. But the standard being used here is bullshit. If you feel bad for not supporting calls for RBG to retire when she was in her 80s - that's a you problem. Stop using that to attack a woman a full decade younger than what you felt was okay for a non-Latina.

EDIT: Also, these concerns are obviously only Democratic and liberal concerns. Thomas and Alito are both older than Sotomayor - but the thing which hammers home how bullshit the double standards is - Chief Justice John Roberts is a whole seven months younger than Sotomayor.

From the River to the C is for Censorship

So, the CBC has a radio program called Reclaimed. It's a program for contemporary Indigenous music an is hosted by Jarrett Martineau. Part of CBC's own description of the program includes this:

Equal parts celebration, resistance, and reclamation 

This past weekend he played a song by Handsome Tiger.  You might be able to view the playlist here - but it might also be scrubbed. If you close the playlist you'll notice that this one show is not on the list, even though a more recent one from the 10th is listed (at the time I looked).   

The song in question that sparked this censorship? RIVER 2 THE SEA. It's just been scrubbed. Dropped into the memory hole. Apparently reconciliation for the historical and ongoing genocide of Canada's Indigenous populations does not extend to allowing them to express solidarity with Palestinians.   

Useful link available here: https://twitter.com/Terrilltf/status/1777850388668186687

The Rent is Too Damn High

One thing that's been kind of mulled over recently is why people are so down on Biden's handling of the economy. By every traditional measure, the US economy is doing amazingly well. GDP is growing at a healthy slightly above long term average rate, which is strong considering global factors. US GDP growth is outpacing the rest of the developed countries. Unemployment has remained at incredibly low levels for a very sustained period of time - and inflation has come mostly under control. It's certainly a lot lower than you would expect after having more than two full years of under 4% unemployment. Inequality, while high, is actually going down. Going by income quintiles, it is the lowest wage earners that have gained the most.

The economy is doing great under Biden - and yet everyone tells pollsters that they think we're in a recession. Even consumer confidence - it's still well below pre-pandemic levels, but it's not that far off - which is amazing considering that people think the economy is in the dumps.

Why?  People should have more disposable income now. But they are behaving as if they don't.

There's been an argument that it's media coverage. There's probably some truth to this - media outlets are hooked on the bullshit narrative that the more conservative you are, the better a job you do with the economy. Literally the reverse is true. Conservatives suck at managing the economy for everybody except the groups getting tax cuts. Their entire ethos is about wealth extraction for the already powerful. But good luck getting this perspective published on a major op-ed page.

BUT - it's 2024. No one follows that shit anymore - or at least no one whose opinion can be swayed. Media just echoes comfortable messages to their audience in order to keep the subscription money flowing in. Maybe in the olden days when there was no other game in town and your bullshit proclamations couldn't be challenged by anyone with any audience at all - back then this sort of shit was important. But today? No one picking up these cues doesn't already believe them 100%.

So what is it then?  What has everyone down in the dumps? It's housing.

These numbers are harder to parse - people move because their rents are too damn high. So they end up paying around the same amount in shelter costs but get shittier homes. We don't have a housing decent-ness indicator - so what we end up seeing is that CPI Shelter is only a bit higher than headline inflation. But we do have other numbers - like housing index costs or the inflation of median rental prices of similar units in similar neighbourhoods. And by those measures - housing costs are bonkers.

Now bear in mind that housing markets are very local, and high volatility can make the worst situations seem way shittier than the typical conditions - but some of the horror stories are so ludicrously nuts that even if they are distant outliers, we're still looking at the median values being way off what we would expect. That said, here's a horror story that sums it up:

As a lawyer at age 47 I am unable to afford living in the apartment I did at age 27 while waiting tables

Shit is not normal.

So this is where the pessimism about the economy is coming from. Maybe people do have more money - in real terms. Maybe they can afford more stuff than they could in the Before Times prior to COVID. But it all feels shitty right now because the biggest line item in their budget buys like half of what it used to - even though it still takes the same fraction of their paychecks. IOW, people feel the economy sucks shit because The Rent is Too Damn High.

Anyways - that's my current take on why we're seeing this disconnect between people's opinions on The Economy and the actual performance of The Economy.

Today's Relevant Music Video

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3a4OTh2Y8w

Two Orders of Blogging Magnitude

Just so that we understand the absolute brain damage suffered by the defenders of the genocide in Gaza, let me single out this fucking moron for criticism. I'll quote it for those who object to clicking on a link to Elon's right-wing hurly burly machine:

I’m not even kidding anymore. I fully believe that if Spain unilaterally recognizes Palestine, the least we can do is recognize Catalan independence.

Firstly, okay. I support recognizing Catalan independence. I'm cool with that. But that out of the way, let me highlight how fucking inhumane and monstrous this dipshit fucking asshole is. The scale of the falsity of this analogy is so immense that it may well block out the sun.

To be clear, the Catalan independence movement has been harshly and severely persecuted by the Spanish government. I do not deny this. I do condemn it. But let's put it into perspective:

576 protesters injured (19 serious, 1 in a critical condition) 300 protesters arrested

These protests lasted a little longer than a year. By comparison, the number injured in the Gaza genocide is now over 75,000 - by the official Gaza Health Ministry numbers, which is a massive undercount. That works out to around 400 injured per day. And there have been over 33 thousand deaths on top of that. IOW, the casualties from the entirety of a year of Spanish crackdowns on the Catalan independence movement is less than one single day of the Gaza genocide, now entering its seventh month.

Two Things Can at Blogs at the Same Time

The military campaign of the US backed IDF in Gaza is apparently two things simultaneously:

Ultra super careful to avoid civilian casualties AND Killing too many civilians.

The excuse given is that because Hamas hides among civilians, it is very difficult to avoid civilian casualties. So cut the IDF some slack - their mission is almost impossible to achieve without killing a lot of children and civilians  

Okay - let’s agree that this is true, for the sake of the argument. Guess what that means?

The moral imperative for Ceasefire Now is even stronger. The ridiculous nonsense position of the military campaign having to continue is explicitly a statement of “we fully intend on slaughtering a lot more civilians”. That’s the only thing it can mean. Isn’t it? 

Too many civilians have already died despite Israel’s best efforts at protecting them. I mean yes - I recognize that Israel is lying its ass off with this fairy tale - but also at the same time - they are saying that they cannot be more careful. They have exercised as much care as they believe is possible. Sure any reasonable person can see this is a load of crap - but also, it is 100% believable that Israel is not willing to put any more effort into not killing Palestinians. 

Which leaves us back at my initial point. Any desire to continue the hunt for Hamas explicitly means massive civilian casualties. 

Maybe some press guy could ask Matt Miller or one of the other State department assholes the question. 

Update on How Well the Blogging is Going

Protests in Tel Aviv demanding new elections are numbering 45,000 to 100,000. For scale, Tel Aviv has a population of around 450,000. So equivalent to at least 10% of the population (man, woman, and child), although certainly some protestors came from outside Tel Aviv. Also, some nutjob drove into the protestors injuring five people.

The US-backed IDF announced the deaths of four soldiers, although Hamas claims to have killed fifteen across five attacks in the past 24 hours. IDF forces are now withdrawing from southern Gaza. Hamas is still capable of firing rockets into Israel.

So what was all of this for? The genocidal campaign of endless war crimes had two goals: to recover the hostages and to "destroy Hamas". These goals were apparently so important that killing or injuring 5% of Gaza's population and subjecting half of the people in Gaza to famine like conditions was acceptable. And Hamas has not been destroyed. IDF action has managed to recover three hostages - but also managed to murder three hostages that escaped. So not really a passing grade here.

We're also still seeing the American funded IDF open fire on aid seekers on Al-Rashid Street at the same place the Flour Massacre took place. Also, violent raids in the West Bank committed by US-supported Israeli militant groups continues unabated with the numbers of Palestinian hostages taken since October 7th now exceeding 8,000. The conditions these hostages are subjected to are inhumane and torturous, as reported by Israel's own doctors.

Just this week, two prisoners had their legs amputated due to handcuff injuries, which unfortunately is a routine event

 So, I guess the grade for progress on the goals of Israel's military campaign is "not great".

EDIT to add:

The WCK attack that has the Western allies all frustrated and upset. Took place AFTER the Security Council demanded an immediate ceasefire. If Biden really is upset about the merciless hunting down of foreign aid workers by a missile firing Israeli drone - well he should pin some blame on the lawless monsters who told Israel that UNSC demands for an immediate ceasefire are "non-binding".

Erez Crossing

These two points have been made elsewhere - but they are important enough that they bear repeating. For background - what is prompting the observation is that within hours of the US threatening to put conditions on military aid - not actually doing it, merely saying that it is a consideration - the Knesset voted to open a new crossing to deliver aid to northern Gaza. 

1. Biden can in fact influence Israeli military policy. The corollary to this of course is that - absolutely yes, Biden is more than complicit in the disastrous state of things in Gaza. He is a full willing participant. 

2. Israel is blocking aid. They absolutely could do things to improve delivery of food and water and medicine to northern Gaza. They just didn’t. And now they are going to because they have to. 

To be clear - that crossing is not open yet. And also too - it’s fucking disgusting that tens of thousands of slaughtered Gazans failed to move the needle, but as soon as some foreign aid workers from allied countries get hunted to death. It’s suddenly a humanitarian crisis that needs action. 

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end for the campaign of genocide. Preventing further loss of life is the primary goal.

The Drone Strikes on World Central Kitchen

It's quite surprising but there have been "consequences" for the WCK drone strike already.  Two officers have been fired and three more were reprimanded. Looks like investigations can happen quickly and ludicrously insufficient actions can be taken. It will be interesting to see if this farce of "accountability" is enough to placate the assholes who have to pretend to be upset about aid workers getting murdered.

The most offensive part of this is of course that when foreign nationals are killed - it's an actual concern. There have been something like 200 aid workers killed in Gaza prior to the WCK strike - and nothing. Because they were just Palestinians, so it doesn't matter if they get murdered. But killing people from Israel's allied countries? That's unacceptable and "accountability" must follow. It's been over two months since Hind Rajab was killed - that's the little girl who phoned for help from the car with her dead family in it. Aid workers co-ordinated with the IDF to send some medics in to save her, and shortly after they were dispatched - they were killed. As was Hind. Where is that investigation at?

The next most offensive part is the measures taken. Two officers have been fired and three others were reprimanded. That's all. Nothing else.  Wheeeeee! Also note - there's already a backlash to this in Israel with the far right nutjobs (who have important positions in the War Cabinet) are already accusing Netanyahu of abandoning their soldiers in the middle of a war zone. So that'll be interesting to watch develop.

Apparently, murdering the staffers of a personal friend of Biden's was enough for the US to threaten to change their policies. Not to actually change anything - but to at least consider putting conditions on military aid. This had been an unimaginable step before the WCK drone strikes - merely suggesting it was enough to be labelled antisemitic. But I guess Biden is Hamas now.  An additional step is that the US considering requiring labels on goods from the Occupied West Bank. We'll see if this happens or if it goes the same way as the sanctions they imposed on the handful of Israeli settler terrorists that got scrapped shortly after being "implemented".

Rogue State Blogging

Yesterday, Israel pulled out of al-Shifa hospital and we got to say the carnage and destruction they laid. 16 ICU patients were taken off life preserving equipment to die. There are dozens if not hundreds of bodies, some showing signs of being executed. Israel then followed this up by bombing an embassy - apparently something that has never happened in the history of modern warfare. And then they capped it off by air striking a World Central Kitchen vehicle, killing 7 foreign aid workers and 1 Gazan. It's a pretty breathtaking display of contempt for international law. But once you realize that Israel is a rogue state - none of it is actually surprising.

Israel bombed an embassy! The military forces of nations have never done this before - it is a clear and blatant violation of the laws of war! It's diplomatic staff that were killed! The same class of people that these assholes who plan this shit belong to! Surely they must at least have empathy for people doing the same jobs as them! Lol, no. Israel is a supremacist nation - unless those diplomatic personnel were Israeli, they don't count. Also, rogue states do not behave the way that regular nations do. They behave like terrorists - and terrorists attack embassies. So, not at all surprising.

Israel killed 7 aid workers! Lol. Come on. Israel mows down aid workers on the reg. They have been using aid deliveries to northern Gaza to stage attacks on Gazans trying to get that food for distribution among the population. The number of UNRWA workers killed so far - well we don't really know since the state of most infrastructure in Gaza is irreparably broken - but it's at least 168. Eight in one blow is higher than the average, but there are so many of these fatal assaults on aid workers that it's not actually surprising. People are just mad about it because this time, they cannot ignore it by relying on the never-stated assumption that Palestinian lives just don't count. It's a big deal because foreign nationals were killed. Which is gross.

Even the al-Shifa hospital atrocities are not new. The IDF withdrew from some Gaza City neighbourhoods before, leaving behind scenes of atrocities. In one case, they found 30 body bags where the corpses were blindfolded, legs and hands tied. So again, not new. And totally consistent behaviour from a rogue terror state.

And all of this too - the "discovery" that Israel is engaging in war crimes, just doing unimaginably horrific shit - also not new. How many times can one be surprised by a nation's lawlessness when they engage in lawlessness nearly constantly? How many times can the world ask the IDF to conduct "investigations" into the slaughter of aid workers when we know the IDF lies all the time?

It's an infinite number. Truth and reality don't matter anymore. As with the October 7th mass rape allegations - evidence is irrelevant. This is also a part of genocide - the crime is not merely the destruction of the victims - which is of course more than bad enough. But also, it is the destruction of the humanity of the perpetrators. People are forced into denying reality because the reality is genocide - and it is something they supported. And so, genocide denial and refusal to acknowledge reality abound. The alternative is acknowledging that you have been supporting genocide. And also of course, the denialism is support of genocide. A vicious circle that is your soul swirling down the drain.

Yesterday was a day filled with evidence of Israeli war crimes - but it really was not much unlike many of the days which have preceded it. And when the fucking sociopathic genocidal monsters in the Biden Administration have had months of practice denying reality, so what's one more day of standing at the podium and yelling "BUT HAMAS!" It's not like their humanity has interfered with their genocide support before, so why should it this time? It didn't, it won't, there's nothing that Israel can do that would change this.

And there is no justice. It is basically guaranteed that none of these assholes - in Israel or in its enabler allies - none of them will suffer any consequences for their genocidal behaviour. The most I can hope for is that they never get another peaceful night of sleep ever again. But I doubt even this will come to pass. They probably have untroubled sleep, atop the bodies of tens of thousands of dead.

Blogging The Right to Exist

Here's one of the justifications for the genocide. Israel's right to exist. Apparently, mass slaughter of civilians and the infliction of famine upon millions of people is justified because Hamas does not recognize Israel's "right to exist".

The facile comment about this is that Israel has very literally denied the right of tens of thousands of Gazans to exist by bombing them to death. That's very true, but it doesn't speak to what is being referred to here as "the right to exist".

The right to exist is about the existence of Israel as a nation. We are talking about the right to exist for the state of Israel. And while a lot of people get hung up on land and borders - this right to exist is about Israeli people. It is the right of Israelis to be recognized as an independent and sovereign nation-state. The right of the Israelis to elect governments and determine their own future. To make decisions and choices for their country.

This is where Biden is coming from - he speaks about Israel's right to exist and his stated goal is to have a normalization process with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States - for those nations to recognize the existence of Israel as a legitimate nation.

But in the Biden-verse, the right for states and nations to exist does not extend to Palestinians. He talks of the "two-state solution" but tries to square that with Israel's outright opposition to it by suggesting that a "state" can be many different things. The Biden "two-state solution" is one sovereign state of Israel and one occupied territory without sovereignty that he calls a "state". It is a branding solution - one that ensures perpetual violence and unrest in the region. It is in fact, the status quo - but with tweaked labels.

This is just the conclusion that Joe Biden gets to because he simply does not consider Palestinians to be human beings. He really doesn't. Anything he says to indicate otherwise is immediately undermined by his actual actions. If he were to state his actual beliefs - that Palestinians are not deserving of basic human dignity and should instead be exterminated - well the war would be over. He knows that if he were to drop the mask and openly call for genocide, he would lose enough support to maintain the war. Thus he pretends that he thinks Palestinians deserve human rights - all in order to prolong the genocide campaign. 

Is this extreme? An incredibly negative view of Biden? No, it isn't. There is no other explanation for his actions - for his constant vetoes of ceasefire resolutions - and then when forced into not vetoing one, his direct efforts at undermining international law by calling the resolutions non-binding. There is no other explanation for his choice to continue to arm the IDF when he has seen for half a year now what happens with the bombs and munitions he sends to them. And Biden does not believe that Palestinians as a group deserve human rights - one of the most basic of which is the right to exist - to self-determination and freedom from oppression and occupation. That is the official position of the USA - that there is no right to exist for Palestine.

Just a reminder when these assholes talk about the "right to exist". They don't extend it to others - it's not a human right, it is a cudgel to beat down opposition to genocide.