What is Population Growth Actually?

A break from trying to organize my thoughts about The Economy into something (barely) readable.  Dave Weigel tweeted the following:

https://x.com/daveweigel/status/1855248851281555665

Harris is going to get even more votes than Obama! How can anyone say there was an enthusiasm problem?

The US population in 2008, when Obama got 69.5 million votes was 302 million. In 2024, it's 335 million - nearly ten percent higher. 

Some in his replies checked the registered voter numbers. 40 million more registered voters. If there was actually Obama-level enthusiasm, Harris would have taken 47% of registered voters, but she actually got 37% of them. But one of the "reality-based" journos covering it is sure that the enthusiasm was similar. I'm in freaking Canada and I could tell that people were definitely not enthused about Harris. There was a lot of "this is worse than holding my nose and pulling for a candidate I don't like - I am actually compromising some core moral principles in an effort to stop Orange Man Bad."

In Weigel's defense, there were moments when this was true. The DNC was big and there was enthusiasm then. Kamala is brat summer was a thing. The reason we're all feeling blindsided by Trump's victory is that back in August - it really looked like a done deal. Harris was riding high on a tidal wave of support and love. And then the "perfect" campaign fucking burned that down in the very short time they had to do it. Spectacularly amazing really - that they could that campaign so effectively and so fast.

It's the Stupid Economy - Part 2 - Still Failing to Identify the Problem

So, the Biden economy was excellent. People are better off now than they were before COVID hit. There were a lot of real problems caused by the pandemic and other factors, but the US managed its way through those issues better than almost every other country in the world. But Americans are certain "The Economy" sucks.

I think there are multiple reasons for this. Let's start off with what I think are the the smallest factors.

I noted that it was the lowest income earners that got the most benefit - but that assessment is based on how you do the groupings. That lowest grouping includes minimum wage earners - the number of whom did not significantly budge over Biden's term. Those people just straight up saw their purchasing power decline by almost a third. A pretty sizable chunk of this lowest income quintile are in fact worse off, and blaming it on inflation is completely accurate. Their struggle is real.

Also too retirees - and it's weird that we haven't heard about this group since they have historically been one of the media's go to  interviews. Not just retirees, but anyone on fixed incomes, those reliant on pensions or disability payments and the like. Some of these incomes have tried to pace inflation - social security payments get annual cost-of-living adjustments that are close to CPI rates, but often the cost of goods and services required by older people rise in prices faster than the normal basket of goods. And then there are people who planned out their retirements and have a decent nest egg providing them the income they thought they would need - usually factoring in inflation. Except not the inflation we had post-pandemic. They got hit too.

BUT - this doesn't account for it all.  The minimum wage earners? BLS says there's about a million of these people. Retirees? Harris actually did quite well (based on exit polling) with 65+ getting a tie against Trump versus Biden losing them by 5 points in 2020.

So these people definitely exist and they are definitely suffering. There are people who are demonstrably worse off - but it doesn't look to me like this significantly impacted the vote.

4% unemployment is considered full employment. There will always be some percentage of people unemployed - for example, when they change jobs. And also, some people who just have a really hard time finding a job. These people are also getting shafted by inflation offset by wage increases since they are living off savings and employment insurance. But again - not there aren't that many of them. The transitory inflation makes it suckier to be jobless - but joblessness is sucky even with normal levels of inflation and there's less joblessness now than in previous elections. Chronic job seekers are already primed to say The Economy Sucks even without the 2022 price surges, and this group is historically small.

How about the vanishing Middle Class - did they get shellacked with the transitory inflation? Inflation adjusted median income, both household and personal income, roughly flat since the pandemic.  Not great, but pretty decent considering what Biden was dealing with. That said, no one was asked "how is the economy doing, considering the challenges Biden had to face with the global pandemic". So, on balance, the median income buys about as much today - even with current egg prices - than it did before the pandemic hit. The implication is that the number of people doing better is roughly the same as the number of people doing worse. So this might have rightly contributed to the number of people saying "The Economy Sucks" versus those that are wrong about it.

And indeed, polling bears this out. Back in May, 41% said that their personal finances had improved, but only 23% said the economy was good.

There are probably many other small factors - but these are the ones I have thought through. So - not a comprehensive list, but a list of things which are true and might have lead to people being down on The Economy - but are poor explanations as to why people voted for Trump on the Economy.

Do I have a good idea as to why people think the Economy sucks? Probably not. I have an idea that I think is a good explanation, but it's entirely possible that I'm totally wrong. We'll tackle that next time on "watch d-kw rant about random shit so he doesn't go back to screaming about genocide again".

It's The Stupid Economy - Part 1 - Failing to Identify the Problem

The number one reason cited in exit polls for Harris losing was "The Economy" or some variation of that. The price of eggs and stuff. And this is confusing because by almost any quantifiable measure, Biden has done an exceptionally great job at managing the economy. So here, I am going to put my thoughts about it together. There's a lot of thoughts, so it's probably going to span a couple posts

First - yes, Bidenomics has been great. He took over in the middle of a global pandemic which ravaged the entire world order - and shepherded the US economy back to normal faster than any other country in the world, despite the US being hit so hard by COVID. And the benefits have not been concentrated at the top as they usually are. It is the lowest income segments that saw the highest percentage income growth under Biden. The US is at full employment with inflation still in the target 2% - 3% range. That's the theoretical ideal pocket! Stock markets indices are at record highs and the poverty rate is at record lows.

One thing that's obfuscating is that since Biden took over during the COVID crisis - it's easy to demonstrate massive improvement by comparing the start of his term to the end of it. But even if you mute this impact by only looking at the latter half of his presidency, his performance is still incredible in terms of economic growth, job creation, and slowing the growth of inequality. 

The US has outperformed the rest of the world on these terms under Biden's watch. He managed the crisis better than anyone else. So it's like he went to the Olympics for Economic Performance and won gold while setting a bunch of new world records - and the reception he's gotten back home is having garbage thrown at him and getting called a big loser. So let's try to unpack why.

The one thing people point at is inflation. Prices are so much higher now than they were before Biden took office! And this is true - the economic shock that was a global pandemic had major impacts on inflation around the world. Also, there was a big to do about "supply chains". The global logistics and distribution network has been highly optimized, it's been pared down to deliver exactly what is needed and almost nothing more - so as to get the prices down as far as possible. But then the pandemic changed how everyone was doing things. They weren't going into the office anymore, but instead huddling alone in self-isolation. Irrational hoarding behaviour proliferated with people stockpiling toilet paper like it was going to be the new currency in the apocalypse. If your delivery system is designed to supply the factories which pump out fast food entrees for shipping to chain restaurants and suddenly half that demand changes to supermarket food, it will take time and money to adjust.

Russia invading Ukraine didn't help - Russia is a major energy supplier to the world, so this disruption was bound to impact energy prices.

IOW, inflation was caused by outside factors - the shock that was the pandemic and a major energy supplier being hit with a wide slate of economic sanctions. And this was pretty obvious at the time - and also obviously, something which the system would adjust to. The nature of demand had suddenly changed - over a very short time, people needed less office appropriate clothing and more pants with elasticized waists. This calls for a retooling of production and supply, which is expensive - but also something that can be completed. Those costs get paid and then we're back to normal. It's my understanding that this was the argument behind Team Transitory - people saying that the high levels of inflation were temporary and would go away. And that's exactly what it was - a temporary bump in inflation before coming back down to normal levels.

And again - the US outperformed most of the world on this measure too. Yes, there was a lot of inflation, but Biden got it under control, while maintaining low levels of unemployment, faster than anyone else. And more importantly than that - he managed it with wage growth outpacing inflation on the aggregate. Now this did take time - inflation was on top for a while - but that's been reversed now and overall, people have more purchasing power now than they did before the pandemic.

So what gives? Why do Americans still feel like "The Economy" sucks?

I have ideas. They're confused and jumbled right now. And maybe they are dumb and totally wrong - but they are stuck in my head and I need to get them out. But this post is already too long, and I still need to organize them some more, so mark this as "...to be continued" - hopefully not after another decade long hiatus.

Maybe Racism Does Still Actually Exist

One thing I've found that bothers the fuck out of liberals is when I call Joe Biden a racist genocidal asshole. They are outraged by this - the idea that some privileged white guy who grew up surrounded by whiteness - born during World War 2 - could have a racist bone in his body. But they are outraged by it.

They never have an answer though - as to what non-racist explanation there is for his role in the genocide of Gaza. How a person who values Palestinian life at all could continue sending the bombs that are incinerating it.

Also, as good liberals, they acknowledge that racism still exists - just that none of The Good Guys are racist. Joe is a decent man - therefore it is impossible for him to be racist. There is an explanation for why he keeps supplying the arms that he acknowledges are killing way too many civilians - no one knows what it is, but it is totally not racist.

He's a racist. And until we address what that means - and what racism in general means and what impacts it has on society - racism will continue to have those impacts on society. Impacts like this:

https://x.com/mehdirhasan/status/1854113848292164042

30 Days to Stop Intentionally Starving Gaza

Three weeks ago, Blinken and Austin wrote a sternly worded letter to Netanyahu warning that if they didn't stop intentionally starving northern Gaza in thirty days, maybe they might not get as many bombs as they want. This is weeks after a fresh round of warnings that northern Gaza was being starved.

As you might imagine, shit has only gotten much worse in northern Gaza since then. No aid was being allowed in. The IDF then stepped up military operations there, further intensifying the already horrific pace of mass murder and destruction. And then Israel passed a law banning any co-operation with UNRWA.

Matt Miller was asked about this and he made a joke about the 30 days not being done yet- "the semester isn't over, hahaha (it's only a couple hundred Arabs that are being starved into extinction, so what's the big deal?)"

Well there is good news for Matt Miller and Lloyd Austin and Anthony Blinken. They don't have to worry about humanitarian aid making its way to northern Gaza any more. The IDF announced yesterday that the ethnic cleansing of northern Gaza was complete. There's no one left there to use the humanitarian aid if it was delivered. Anyone left there is clearly a Hamas terrorist.

Also too, while the US was out voting yesterday, Netanyahu fired Yoav Gallant, the Israeli Minister of Defense. Apparently the guy who said that they were fighting human animals in Gaza was too moderate. So despite how fucking unbelievably terrible the situation is in the Middle East - that one terrible truth still remains in effect. It is going to get worse.

Well That Didn't Turn Out So Good

Part of the reason I've been quiet is that, even with almost no audience, I was still scared shitless of doing anything to help Trump get into office again. Even if no one is reading this blog (and almost nobody is) - I still know that my criticism of the Biden Administration doesn't help them at all. Well, not only was it pointless (since I am an irrelevant voice that has zero reach) but also, it was pointless in that Trump has won the election.

Would I feel better now if I had continued screaming into the void? Probably not. This is really fucking terrible shit. Trump is a disaster. It's going to be fucking bad - on every front. Our only mitigating factors are that opposition to his fascist agenda will be more united and maybe the damage he does will be limited by his incompetence and infighting among the deeply selfish grifters he has surrounded himself with.

Anyways, the reason for this blog is to quell the voice in my head that makes me want to gripe and rant and complain. And it is far better for me to do so here than IRL. Well, it is looking like I am going to have a lot of things to rant about for quite some time. So maybe you can expect this blog to be more active again - no promises though.