This is not the first time I have stated that the Ceasefire talks are pure bullshit. It's been made even more clear by statements from Israel recently, and also confirmed by the US that these talks are not serious. Not in the slightest. There's a sort of big fundamental sticking point to the negotiations that no one has found an answer to. Here is that problem:
Neither the US nor Israel believe that Hamas can be allowed to exist.
That's the problem. They are negotiating a deal with Hamas but their fundamental goals and non-negotiable demands include complete eradication of Hamas. This has been obvious ever since the original truce fell apart at the beginning of December. The US and Israel are both 100% committed to "destroying Hamas". They have both said that there can be no Hamas in post-war Gaza, so any permanent ceasefire can only happen after Hamas has been wiped out or if they unconditionally surrender.
Some people might argue that this is a bad faith negotiating position. Those people would be correct. But also, despised and demonized by the US government.
Now to be clear - Hamas might also be negotiating in bad faith. They might only be pretending to be interested in a cessation of hostilities and will not restrain rocket barrages and other attacks. It's possible - Hamas is a terrorist organization and they likely do not have full and active control over their forces. Maybe they cannot deliver on a promise to abide by the ceasefire or that they don't have any intention of doing so. The problem with that argument is that we know it's not true. The truce at the end of November went along just fine - despite Israel reneging on allowing aid into Gaza. That truce ended only because there was no framework for exchanging the remaining hostages. Also too, it ended at Israel's discretion. Maybe there were some de-minimus hostilities in that period, but nothing serious enough to challenge the truce.
IOW, Hamas has already shown that it is willing to abide by the terms of a truce (although only for a week so far). But as I have previously mentioned - of course they would. A truce/ceasefire will strengthen Hamas and further cement them as the most popular group in the region. A ceasefire is in Hamas' best interest - even if you assume they don't give a shit about what happens to Gaza. Because a ceasefire is a huge win for Hamas - it legitimizes them and massively raises their profile even more than their resistance to genocide already has.
And herein lies the trap that Biden has built for himself (and also the entire Middle East). What's the alternative? The military campaign to "destroy Hamas" has only made Hamas more powerful and influential, now with a massive pool of potential recruits eager to exact revenge.. Anti-Israel sentiment is higher now than at any point in time that I can remember - and Hamas is already way more popular than Netanyahu's fascist government or Biden's complicit one. The harder they go after Hamas, the more legitimacy it accumulates.
So there's the trap. Heads - Hamas wins, Tails Israel and the US lose. A ceasefire makes Hamas stronger. No ceasefire and more military action makes Hamas stronger. What can Israel and the Us do at this point?
What hey fail to recognize is that they have no exit plan. They cannot destroy Hamas with military might - firstly, it's not actual possible. In addition to being a terrorist organization, Hamas is also an idea. The idea of resistance and a sovereign Palestine. You cannot defeat this idea with violence - attempting to do so just makes it more powerful. Which means that at some point, this will end with negotiations that leaves Hamas in charge.
So the choice they have made - to fight Hamas tooth and nail, is doomed to failure. This is going to end with a negotiated peace deal - one that leaves Hamas intact, although possibly rebranded under a different name. And every day they don't accept this fact, this just plays into Hamas' strategy to consolidate their power. It's a case of Heads Hamas wins and tails, Israel and the US lose - but also the game keeps going until a Head is flipped.
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