It's been a while since I've done one of these, so we're overdue for checking in on the situation in the Middle East and gauging how great things are going for Israel.
Israel had two stated goals with this special military operation: 1. Destroy Hamas and 2. Rescue the hostages. Let's take them in reverse order.
Rescuing hostages. A big fail. They have rescued three hostages - the same number of escaped hostages they executed for waving a white flag. Less than the number Hamas released unilaterally (four). IOW, in terms of rescuing Israeli hostages, Hamas has done a better job than the IDF. And of course - 105 hostages were recovered by negotiation and a cessation of hostilities. So quite obviously - the rescuing hostages part of it all has been a Big Failure.
The current death toll of Israeli soldiers since the start of the ground invasion is 263. More than the total number of hostages taken. Very strategic strategery here.
Destroying Hamas. Lol, no. Hamas launched rockets during Passover. According to the Institute for the Study of War, they also launched four rockets today. They also note that Hamas has been challenging the Netzarim Corridor - this is the flattened out area Israel "cleared" so they could rapidly deploy right into Gaza.
It looks like the IDF sustained fewer casualties in April than in previous months - but Hamas is still killing them from time to time. So Hamas is still a force that militarily retains the ability to fight inside Gaza with effectiveness. But only inside Gaza - with their only real success outside of their enclave was the surprise terror attack that Israel had the battle plans for a year in advance and decided that this was a good sign to relocate troops away from the Gaza fence. Against almost any other nation, or even Israel itself at a time when there was less hubris and deceit and worship of Netanyahu's strategic genius - adherence to "Cut the Grass" would not have allowed them to fuck that up so badly.
Politically, Hamas is still very popular. I would guess this is a result of being one of the very few groups standing up against genocide:
Before October 7, Fatah would have defeated Hamas in a head-to-head vote of all Palestinians 26 to 22 percent. If elections were held today, Fatah would lose to Hamas 17 to 34 percent.
Saying that Hamas is stronger and more influential now is dead right. Hamas is quite obviously stronger now than they were on October 7.
And what has this huge amount of zero progress cost? Resource-wise Israel is now into big deficits. There's global demands for scrutiny and divestment of arms to Israel. It's being seen by more and more people as the rogue state that it is. There was the ICJ protective orders issued in January and strengthened since then. The ICC is now looking to finally lay charges against Israeli leadership.
Support in the US, which is funding the genocide, is dropping in the general public despite remaining very high in elected leadership. But even there, cracks are beginning to show. The US has now repeatedly undermined international law and is about to engage in a ridiculous pantomime in order to pretend that they aren't also violating US law. And now, in the face of peaceful campus protests, have gone with a heavy-handed militarized overreaction.
Both countries are increasingly isolated, their reputations around the globe just being torn to shreds. Their support inside their own borders dwindling. The usual defense of calling everybody antisemitic Jew haters losing its power.
In other words - Israel's military campaign is going exactly how you would expect - very similar to the last time we checked, but only more so now.
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