How do You Lay Down Arms if You Need Arms to Lay Things Down?

So here is an interesting thing. Let me quote the lede:

A top Hamas political official told The Associated Press the Islamic militant group is willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel and that it would lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders.

Now let me get to the interesting part of it. Like you, when I read that I thought "dude is lying." That's what you thought too, right? It's just bullshit. And that's the interesting part - our reaction to news like this.

We respond that way because Hamas is a terrorist organization. They don't know anything other than the threats or use of violence. They have no respect for laws or civilian life - as was made very clear on October 7th. So this claim is an obvious lie. They are The Bad Guys, there is no way they could possibly be on the side of peace and de-escalation. It's just not credible.

Until you actually think about it - which you should whenever your beliefs are based around "those guys are Evil and they will Do Evil because they Are Evil" and literally nothing more.

Obviously, a sovereign Palestinian State and an end to the bombing would be an immense benefit to Palestinians. But, as I have noted before (despite people pretending otherwise in order to further their racist dreams of genocide) - Hamas is not Palestine and Palestine is not Hamas. 

Now a big part of the reason Hamas exists is to oppose the occupation - Hamas literally stands for Islamic Resistance Movement - so presumably, they would not be necessary if Palestine existed as a sovereign state. Certainly, this would impact their appeal as a movement. So it does make sense - a Palestinian state is essentially "Mission Accomplished" for them and they could pack up their guns afterwards. But this of course is the "haha, were you born yesterday?" take. It's wildly naive to think that terrorists would just give up on violence once they started getting their demands agreed to. If this is your view, I know this Nigerian prince who really wants to do a business deal.

But once again - we are back to the initial problem. Hamas will Do Evil because they Are Evil. Which is just as naive if not more so.

So what is the non-naive way to think about this then? How do we think about this realistically? Simple - we assume that Hamas will act in its own self-interest. We assume that they are selfish and that they will do what's best for Hamas. So obviously, laying down their arms and giving up their power is the opposite of what's best for Hamas. Right?

Wrong. They are offering that as an exchange - in return for giving up their arms, they would get a sovereign Palestinian state - a new nation where they are far and away the single most popular movement. They are asking for a country where they will easily be swept into power in free and fair elections. Their country - which they would be in charge. A country that would no longer be under occupation and siege.

The deal they are putting forward is that they will stop being terrorists and give up violence if they are legitimized as the actual leaders of the country - with all that this entails, like being able to make treaties with Iran for example. This would move them out of being internationally recognized as criminals - with the responsibility of "governing" a territory where their enemy controls the borders and all foreign relations - to being a legitimate government. It's a fucking massive boon to them - of course it's a serious offer on their part! 

It's like a bank robber saying "I'll stop robbing banks if you just give me everything inside the bank and then expunge my criminal record". And our response is "Bullshit. What do you get out of this? Obviously you are only interested in pointing guns at people. This is not a serious offer." 

Come on. Who is being naive here? It's a farcically ludicrous position - a child's "cops and robbers" view of the world. And yet it is the one we all assume. And to me, that's the interesting part of it.

Results in the Days Ahead

No results.

Literally - nothing.

"Oh yes, gross violations oh human rights occurred, but it's okay because it's Israel and they say they are going to super duper do something about it."

Blinken needs to be hounded at every possible opportunity to explain what these serious measures are that Israel has taken. Because he will have bupkes. Zilch. Nada. Just "trust these human rights violators. They say they are dealing with it - and if that's not good enough for you, you're anti-semitic."

If I were King of the World - I would abdicate immediately because no one person should have that much power. But the temptation to ensure that Blinken never sees the outside of a very small jail cell for the rest of his natural life would be very hard to resist.

The Kids These Days are Alright for Blogging

As an old - I totally get the impulse to look at "kids these days" and think about how naive and ignorant they are. About how they are so out of touch with the "real world" and how they just don't understand how things actually work. Kids these days, amirite!

This past week, Gaza protests exploded across the US and other parts of the world.

This weekend will likely be the start of the Rafah ground invasion that everyone has ben saying will be disastrous.

We are at yet another precipice of "it is going to get worse" and it is soul crushingly sad and maddeningly frustrating - this is the best I've got at finding a silver lining. Just noting that at least some people understand what is going on and are willing to act on it.

Blogging the Days Ahead

I told you to expect it.

Rumour has it that Blinken is going to designate one IDF group, the Netzah Yehuda Battalion, as ineligible to receive US military aid. For context, while Israel does have conscription, Netzah Yehuda does not have any draftees but instead is an all volunteer unit with members recruited out of Israel's far right ultra-orthodox religious sects. This part of Israel society has been exempt from mandatory military service - something they are looking to change now - so it's this battalion that represents where the IDF is headed.

There's some reporting about how Netzah Yehuda is responsible for 20% of the crimes where the IDF got indictments against their soldiers (this is prior to October 7) - but this isn't a useful statistic. The IDF almost NEVER holds their soldiers responsible for anything. This 20% actually represents 2 cases out of 11 from over the span of five years (2017 to 2021 inclusive). That said, the work done by Yesh Din on this is very useful as they provide a synopsis for each of the 11 cases.

In February 2019, five soldiers and an officer with the rank of lieutenant from the 97th Netzah Yehuda Battalion were put on trial. According to the indictments, the soldiers punched a father and son who had been detained and beat them with various objects. The victims were handcuffed and blindfolded at the time. One of the soldiers filmed the abuse and the military court cleared the footage for publication. The five soldiers were convicted of aggravated physical abuse, negligent harm, and misconduct. As part of a plea bargain, the military court sentenced three of the soldiers to six months in prison and a demotion. Another soldier convicted of the detainees’ abuse was sentenced to five and a half months in prison and a demotion, and the fifth soldier was sentenced to two months in prison and a demotion. The military court sentenced the officer to 60 days in prison and a demotion to the rank of private.

There's that harsh military discipline we expect from the IDF. /s Of note - these guys were not booted from the military and may very well be serving in Gaza at this very moment. Here's the other case:

Three indictments were filed in 2021 against three soldiers of the 97th Netzah Yehuda Battalion for aggravated physical abuse with a conspirator. According to the indictments, the three soldiers beat and physically abused a detained Palestinian. One of the soldiers pressed his weapon to the detainee’s head and threatened him, saying, “How about I shoot you...”. The other two soldiers relentlessly punched the detainee and beat him with their weapons while he was handcuffed, blindfolded, and lying on the floor of the military vehicle. Corporal H.A.K. was convicted of aggravated physical abuse with a conspirator and sentenced to 165 days in prison, a suspended prison term and a demotion. Sergeant S. A. was convicted of aggravated physical abuse with a conspirator, obstruction of justice and misconduct. He was sentenced to 135 days in prison, a suspended prison term and a demotion. Despite the serious charges, one of the indictments (Court-Martial Case Central (District) 282/21) was canceled. Yesh Din has no information about the reason for the cancellation.

Anyways, the 20% isn't particularly meaningful. From that time frame, 1,260 complaints about abuse of Palestinians were filed - and 11 resulted in indictments. For reference, this time frame (2017 to 2021) would have included the Great March of Return.

Anyways, the point I would like to bring up is - how the fuck can this be applied to one unit and one unit only? It would be reasonable if this was a rogue unit that went off the rails - but it isn't. It's the model unit for future Israeli military operations. And it is an inseparable part of the IDF. If the US has problems with what Netzah Yehuda has done, then their issue is with the government of Israel - not with that one unit. And to support that assertion, let me cite each of the three members of the war cabinet:

Netanyahu:

The U.S. is reportedly considering sanctions against the Netzah Yehuda, an Israeli Defense Force unit linked to violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday he would fight the sanctions “with all my strength”—joining liberal and conservative members of the Knesset in condemning the possible move shortly after the U.S. approved a $26 billion aid package for the Israeli military.

Gallant: 

“The entire defense establishment, the IDF and the State of Israel support you, appreciate you and strengthen you in your operations to protect the State of Israel,” Gallant told the Netzah Yehuda troops, according to his office.

And Gantz: 

The ‘Netzah Yehuda’ battalion is an inseparable part of the Israel Defense Forces. It is subject to military law and is responsible for operating in full compliance with International law.

I suppose the follow-up question to Blinken would be - given the huge chasm between how the US views Netzah Yehuda and how the State of Israel sees them - why do you place any value whatsoever on Israeli investigations into wrongdoing? Quite obviously, the Israeli standard for this sort of thing is unbelievably deficient. 

Sometimes the Genocide Justification Slips Right by You

It's one of those blue-check powered long tweets, so it hardly seems worth pointing out if it - but there's an important point here I feel has to be made.  Here's the tweet. I'll summarize his argument:

Protests against the Viet Nam War were legitimate and you can tell because they did not unfurl the flag of the enemy or cheer for the Viet Cong. These things are not true of the pro-Palestine protests where there are Palestine flags everywhere.

A lot of people have hit back on him by pointing out that Viet Nam War protests did in fact feature support for the Viet Cong and NVA. He sidesteps this by saying that those flags and cheers were fringe extremists - whereas Palestine flags are rampant at current rallies.

But no one is noting the actual problem with his argument. And that is that he is a genocidal fucking monster. Let me clarify the point.

Palestine =/= Hamas..

The flag of Palestine is not the flag of Hamas. It is not the flag of "the enemy" - it is the flag of the victims. But here we have this shitbag fucking asshole trying to conflate the two. He's saying that the flag of Palestine is the flag of terrorism. He's saying that all Palestinians are terrorists and therefore are legitimate targets. He is echoing Israeli President Isaac Herzog's genocidal claim that there is no such thing as an innocent Gazan. It's genocidal and he should feel deep shame for having put it into the public.

Expect Blogging in the Days Ahead

So Blinken has responded to the ProPublica article by saying he's made "determinations" and we'll see them in the days ahead. Just for context - some of the violations in those reports Blinken has been sitting on pre-date October 7.  It's just that the massively increased shipments of bombs and munitions since then have made these "determinations" much more urgent - as in "sit in a briefcase for months and only act when news leaks out and gets reported" urgent.

While we're on the topic of what Blinken sees in the "days ahead"....

November 29. 2023

There are important questions about its governance, its security, its reconstruction.  A few – a couple of weeks ago in Tokyo I laid out some basic principles that we see as being necessary.  But also, the day after the day after, which is how do we get on a clear path to meeting the legitimate political aspirations of the Palestinian people, which really, in our judgment, is the only way to durable peace, durable security for everyone, starting with Israel and Israelis. 

But these are conversations that we’ll pursue in the days ahead, in the weeks ahead, in the months ahead.

Followed by 

January 6, 2024

Third, we will focus on the steps that remain to make sure that October 7th never happens again and that we get on a path to a sustainable, peaceful, secure future for everyone.  That starts with the work that’s going to be necessary in Gaza itself to rebuild, to have security, to have Palestinian-led governance...

So the work that needs to be done to get on that first path, the steps that need to be taken, the commitments that countries need to make – this is what we’ll be talking about in the days ahead.

How's that going? The UNSC voted on full admission of Palestine to the UN this past week. 12 votes in favour, two abstentions, and the US vetoed it.

January 7, 2024

So, through all of these lines of effort, we’re determined to do everything we possibly can to ameliorate the situation for men, women, and children in Gaza when it comes to food, when it comes to humanitarian assistance more broadly.  This is an effort that’s absolutely essential, and it is imperative – imperative – that we maximize assistance to people in need.  Not only do we get it to Gaza and into Gaza, but once it’s in Gaza, that it can be effectively distributed to people who need it everywhere in Gaza.  We’ll be working on that in the days ahead as well. 

Since that time, USAID confirmed that Northern Gaza is in famine and Israel was forced to allow more aid in after hunting down foreign aid workers and slaughtering them like animals - but got around this by only letting through half empty trucks.

Actually, let me let Anthony Blinken totally gloss over three months of "days ahead" with his statement on April 9, 2024.

Just yesterday, more than 400 trucks were cleared to go into Gaza, and that is the most since October 7th on any given day.  But what matters is results, and sustained results, and this is what we will be looking at very carefully in the days ahead.

Again - half empty trucks. Also, still below the minimum number that aid agencies are saying would be the absolute minimum requirement (500 per day).

I think you get the idea.  "Days ahead" means - don't bug me, I'm busy covering up for a genocide. There are a lot of these "days ahead" statements that are just plain ludicrously comical, so I will end off with the most egregious one I found. This one is from October 13, 2023:

I mentioned as well that we’re very actively engaged with UN relief agencies, with the ICRC, with others to address the acute humanitarian needs of people in Gaza – to protect them from harm and make sure that they have the ability to get what they need.  We need to ensure, for example, that there are safe areas in Gaza for civilians.  We’re working through the details on that, and more to be said in the days ahead, but that’s a priority for us.

Edit: fixed a link 

Pay No Attention to the Genocide Behind the Curtain

A reminder - Iran's retaliatory strike for the bombing of an embassy has resulted in one injured girl and reported damage only to a military air base. And while the US is frantically waving its arms in order to head off any escalation in the Middle East, they will not be able to prevent their top spokesmonsters from whining constantly about Iran. Because they need the cover.

I already noted the Wash Post story about Israel's bullshit about the murder of Hind Rajab, her family, and the paramedics sent in to save her.

Earlier this week, it was noted that the former Israeli general in charge of the WCK air strike investigation is the CEO of the company that made the missiles which killed the aid workers.

On Tuesday, UNRWA released a report on how Israel treats Palestinian detainees and prisoners.

Yesterday, there was this ProPublica article about how the special Leahy Law committee for Israel has recommended sanctions against Israeli military and police units.

All while Gaza starves. The famine continues - and Israel's claims to have increased aid are being debunked by noting that while it may be more trucks going through, the trucks themselves are half empty.

But don't worry about that. What about Iran! I mean if you think this pesky genocide thing is more important than what Iran did then you are the monster.

One final note - from Jon Stewart's bit on Monday. All of this is "justified" by claiming that this is about the very existence of Israel. If the US does not fully support genocide, then all those terror-loving Arabs surrounding the Only Democracy in the Middle East will do a million 9-11's and eradicate Israel. A totally not racist belief at all. /s

The Daily Show noted that the Iranian attack was intercepted with assistance from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen.

Very Serious and Believable Blogging Investigations

Way back at the end of January, we were all captured by the story of Hind Rajab.  The five year old girl stuck in a car with the dead bodies of her family, begging to be rescued over the phone. A rescue mission was organized and two paramedics went out to get her, only to be killed 50 metres away from the car. Hind was also killed. The IDF did not allow the bodies to be retrieved for twelve days.

The IDF of course denied any involvement in the killing. They also denied that they were in communication with the paramedic team and had okayed the rescue. And the US said - okay this is good enough for us.

Late in February, Al Jazeera published a story showing satellite images of Israeli tanks near the car, despite the IDF claiming that none of their vehicles were in the area. But it's Al Jazeera so the State department ghouls just ignored it.

Now, it's the Wash Post. They've confirmed the satellite imagery. They spoke with various munitions experts. They looked at video from the recovery team, twelve days after the killing when the IDF finally allowed access, and identified a munitions fragment of in the video as a 120 mm tank round compatible with the IDF Merkova tank - and by its serial number, as a round made by the US in November 1996. They confirmed that the ambulance rescue mission was coordinated with COGAT.

Matt Miller says that they are going to ask Israel for comment. Waiting for someone to ask Miller if any of this affects the faith they have in Israel's "investigations". 

Trolley Blogging

One of the things I keep discovering about the Gaza genocide is that all the shit I think is horrible is in fact a lot worse. I see the same stuff getting reported that everyone else does and have the same initial horrified response - but then I think about it some more and realize that I didn't understand how truly bad it was - and probably still don't.

Here's a less directly horrific but still terrible example of that. There's a meme about the trolley problem called "you can only watch" that's been particularly poignant in these times.

But, as I said, it's worse. We're not just watching. We're actively looking away so that we can go to work at the trolley factory. And when anyone voices any concerns about what these trolleys are doing, we're told that trolleys are an important tool in fighting climate change and that concern for the people getting slaughtered is actively opposing public transit and being pro-global warming.

Are We the Baddies?

As always with posts like this, I have to start off by stating that I do note support Iran. It is an autocratic theocracy run by extremist religious nutjobs. Human rights violations in the Islamic Republic are commonplace and I do believe that they are engaging in clandestine activities that harm regional and global stability.

But - objectively speaking - is the West not worse? I mean, I guess we're not as autocratic nor theocratic - and there are plenty of secular nutjobs interspersed with the "Mission from God" folks. But in terms of being a threat to regional and global stability, what Iran is doing seems is practically benign.

Let's just consider the situation as the fucking racist genocidal sociopaths at the US State Department see it. On October 7th, Hamas attacked Israel - killing over a thousand people and kidnapping hundreds more. In response - Israel has killed or injured over a hundred thousand, subjected hundreds of thousands more to famine like conditions, and displaced millions of people in Gaza, a territory with a population of 2.3 million. And the US says "this is regrettable but acceptable and we will provide infinite support to ensure it continues".

In comparison - Israel attacked an Iranian embassy in Syria, killing seven people. In response Iran does the following:

• Sought redress at the UN, which the US and its allies veto. For reference, there is still no official UNSC statement about the bombing of an embassy - a week and a half later.
• Offers to forego retaliation if there is a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, which is denied.
• Launches a counter-attack which damages military targets and results in one girl getting injured.
• Says they are done with retaliation and that was the extent of it.

And now the nutjobs are out for blood, demanding a retaliatory strike against Tehran. So who are the badd guys here?

Okay, that was the post. What follows is random thoughts about the military implications of the strike. And this information may be dubious as no one wants to admit anything - but this attack does not look good for Israel. At all. Why do I say this even though 98% of the attack was intercepted? The reports are that 7 missiles went through and that these were 7 out of 7 of the hypersonic missiles that Iran launched - 5 of which hit Nevatim Air Base, and all of which were launched from Iran. IOW, Iran has established that they can reach fairly deep into Israel whenever they want and with a fair degree of accuracy. Despite the interception effort being backed up by multiple Arab states and a full on US carrier group.

Iran now also has information on the extent and capabilities of the missile defense systems. They now know exactly where the Iron Dome facilities are (and did I mention that they also have the ability to reach into Israel with hypersonic missiles with a fair degree of accuracy?) and which states will go all out to defend them (at enormous political cost to Jordan). At the cost of a bit more than three hundred drones and missiles. All that was missing from this attack was one hypersonic to have "misfired" and landed harmlessly in the Red Sea at a range which implies that Iran could take hit  USS Dwight D Eisenhower if it wanted to. Maybe Iran doesn't have that range - but pretty sure that the DoD is shitting bricks about it. This is almost certainly just coincidence, but 7 hypersonic missiles also coincides with the number of missile defense ships in Carrier Strike Group 2 (3 cruisers and 4 destroyers). Maybe a missile actually did hit the Red Sea and we're just not hearing about the "misfired" weapon since it didn't actually do anything. On the plus side, misfired missile or not, the US has already stated that they will not support a counterattack into Iran. That is a positive sign. Unfortunately it is one I have almost zero faith in - six months of admonishing Israel for killing too many civilians with no reduction in the supply of bombs will do that to your credibility.

Thunder Bay Owes Georjann Morriseau an Apology

Today, Sylvie Hauth the former Police Chief of Thunder Bay, has been charged with obstruction of justice, obstruction of a public official, and breach of trust by a public officer.

Here's a fun bit of this news - she announced her retirement the same day that the civilian oversight agency announced that they would hold hearings about her behaviour. Her retirement meant that those hearings never happened. A lesson learned (which has been blatantly obvious for a long time) is that if you are implementing police reform - ensure that your oversight agency had mandate over former police officers who committed their violations while they were police officers. That also means that these oversight agencies need to be able to impose penalties beyond even the harshest punishment a police officer can possibly imagine - losing the badge. Literally worse than capital punishment! /s Anywho - I believe these charges are related to Hauth's campaign to discredit Georgjann Morriseau, the Thunder Bay Police Services Board Chair at the time. And this was possibly related to recent reports of Thunder Bay Police being deeply and intensely racist and completely indifferent to the killings of multiple Indigenous youth. This period of time put Thunder Bay up as the number one contender against Winnipeg for being Canada's Most Racist City.

So hooray I guess for getting to actual charges? Anyways, the reason I'm mentioning this is that - yes there has been coverage of the arrest of and charges being laid against a former police chief. But AFAICT, there has been zero information about the victim. No one has yet to report how Georjann Morriseau feels about this, nor has anyone offered up any apology to her. In fact, none of the stories I've seen thus far even mention what the charges are about or names Morriseau at all.

Anyways, if you're looking into information as to what a police chief possibly could have done to warrant getting criminal charges - you'll have to go back to when the civilian oversight board announced hearings. And again, those hearings never took place because Sylvie Hauth resigned.

UPDATE: I was mistaken about no one discussing the actual things that Sylvie Hauth is alleged to have done. There is ONE news story from April 12th that covers it - and weirdly, that fact makes the news sites look even worse. The one story that covered it was the Canadian Press wire service.

Independent Blogging Investigations

So the "independent investigation" into the strike that killed the World Central Kitchen workers which found that it was all a big oopsie? Well, you already know that it was conducted by an IDF veteran but did you know this?

The investigation into Col Mandel and his colleagues was led by retired Maj Gen Yoav Har-Even, president and CEO of Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, sparking claims of bias.

The IDF is one of Rafael's biggest buyers. The company, which sells nearly half of its arms to Israeli clients, makes the 'Spike missiles' which are reported to have been used to kill the aid workers.

Judging Things by Different Standards

There's a lotta calls for Sotomayor to retire so that Biden can appoint a replacement. Call it post-RBG syndrome. There's been some pushback suggesting that this is racist and sexist - demanding that the only ever Latina SCOTUS justice step down. Also there's backlash from institutional power defending folks who reflexively believe that any criticism of powerful people is the same as violent terrorism.

I'm anti-authority (I know - shocking admission) - but I have to agree with the Sotomayor defenders. It's racist and sexist.

Justice Sotomayor is 69. This isn't young, but it's way lower than the age that the rumbling for retirement gets trotted out for non-Latinas. For example:

RBG herself, did not face pushes for retirement until Obama's second term. So the early calls for RBG to retire - which were vehemently opposed I'd like to note - did not start until 2012 at the earliest, when RBG was 79. Two and a half presidential terms older than Sotomayor is now.

The calls for Stephen Breyer to retire only began in 2021, after Joe took the oath in the wake of a literal attempted insurrection. He would have been 81. Meaning that during Obama's second term, he would have been 73 to 78 - and no one said shit.

I have disagreements with all of the SCOTUS justices, but I find that Sotomayor is the least likely to do shit that pisses me off.  And based on the weird index they created for this, Sonia Sotomayor is indeed the most Liberal justice on SCOTUS - and by a significant margin.  More liberal than RBG. In fact, among the most liberal justices that SCOTUS has ever had with only two previous justices that have rated as more so.

Look, I acknowledge that losing her and having a GOP asshole like Trump picking her replacement, that would be super bad. But the standard being used here is bullshit. If you feel bad for not supporting calls for RBG to retire when she was in her 80s - that's a you problem. Stop using that to attack a woman a full decade younger than what you felt was okay for a non-Latina.

EDIT: Also, these concerns are obviously only Democratic and liberal concerns. Thomas and Alito are both older than Sotomayor - but the thing which hammers home how bullshit the double standards is - Chief Justice John Roberts is a whole seven months younger than Sotomayor.

From the River to the C is for Censorship

So, the CBC has a radio program called Reclaimed. It's a program for contemporary Indigenous music an is hosted by Jarrett Martineau. Part of CBC's own description of the program includes this:

Equal parts celebration, resistance, and reclamation 

This past weekend he played a song by Handsome Tiger.  You might be able to view the playlist here - but it might also be scrubbed. If you close the playlist you'll notice that this one show is not on the list, even though a more recent one from the 10th is listed (at the time I looked).   

The song in question that sparked this censorship? RIVER 2 THE SEA. It's just been scrubbed. Dropped into the memory hole. Apparently reconciliation for the historical and ongoing genocide of Canada's Indigenous populations does not extend to allowing them to express solidarity with Palestinians.   

Useful link available here: https://twitter.com/Terrilltf/status/1777850388668186687

The Rent is Too Damn High

One thing that's been kind of mulled over recently is why people are so down on Biden's handling of the economy. By every traditional measure, the US economy is doing amazingly well. GDP is growing at a healthy slightly above long term average rate, which is strong considering global factors. US GDP growth is outpacing the rest of the developed countries. Unemployment has remained at incredibly low levels for a very sustained period of time - and inflation has come mostly under control. It's certainly a lot lower than you would expect after having more than two full years of under 4% unemployment. Inequality, while high, is actually going down. Going by income quintiles, it is the lowest wage earners that have gained the most.

The economy is doing great under Biden - and yet everyone tells pollsters that they think we're in a recession. Even consumer confidence - it's still well below pre-pandemic levels, but it's not that far off - which is amazing considering that people think the economy is in the dumps.

Why?  People should have more disposable income now. But they are behaving as if they don't.

There's been an argument that it's media coverage. There's probably some truth to this - media outlets are hooked on the bullshit narrative that the more conservative you are, the better a job you do with the economy. Literally the reverse is true. Conservatives suck at managing the economy for everybody except the groups getting tax cuts. Their entire ethos is about wealth extraction for the already powerful. But good luck getting this perspective published on a major op-ed page.

BUT - it's 2024. No one follows that shit anymore - or at least no one whose opinion can be swayed. Media just echoes comfortable messages to their audience in order to keep the subscription money flowing in. Maybe in the olden days when there was no other game in town and your bullshit proclamations couldn't be challenged by anyone with any audience at all - back then this sort of shit was important. But today? No one picking up these cues doesn't already believe them 100%.

So what is it then?  What has everyone down in the dumps? It's housing.

These numbers are harder to parse - people move because their rents are too damn high. So they end up paying around the same amount in shelter costs but get shittier homes. We don't have a housing decent-ness indicator - so what we end up seeing is that CPI Shelter is only a bit higher than headline inflation. But we do have other numbers - like housing index costs or the inflation of median rental prices of similar units in similar neighbourhoods. And by those measures - housing costs are bonkers.

Now bear in mind that housing markets are very local, and high volatility can make the worst situations seem way shittier than the typical conditions - but some of the horror stories are so ludicrously nuts that even if they are distant outliers, we're still looking at the median values being way off what we would expect. That said, here's a horror story that sums it up:

As a lawyer at age 47 I am unable to afford living in the apartment I did at age 27 while waiting tables

Shit is not normal.

So this is where the pessimism about the economy is coming from. Maybe people do have more money - in real terms. Maybe they can afford more stuff than they could in the Before Times prior to COVID. But it all feels shitty right now because the biggest line item in their budget buys like half of what it used to - even though it still takes the same fraction of their paychecks. IOW, people feel the economy sucks shit because The Rent is Too Damn High.

Anyways - that's my current take on why we're seeing this disconnect between people's opinions on The Economy and the actual performance of The Economy.

Today's Relevant Music Video

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3a4OTh2Y8w

Two Orders of Blogging Magnitude

Just so that we understand the absolute brain damage suffered by the defenders of the genocide in Gaza, let me single out this fucking moron for criticism. I'll quote it for those who object to clicking on a link to Elon's right-wing hurly burly machine:

I’m not even kidding anymore. I fully believe that if Spain unilaterally recognizes Palestine, the least we can do is recognize Catalan independence.

Firstly, okay. I support recognizing Catalan independence. I'm cool with that. But that out of the way, let me highlight how fucking inhumane and monstrous this dipshit fucking asshole is. The scale of the falsity of this analogy is so immense that it may well block out the sun.

To be clear, the Catalan independence movement has been harshly and severely persecuted by the Spanish government. I do not deny this. I do condemn it. But let's put it into perspective:

576 protesters injured (19 serious, 1 in a critical condition) 300 protesters arrested

These protests lasted a little longer than a year. By comparison, the number injured in the Gaza genocide is now over 75,000 - by the official Gaza Health Ministry numbers, which is a massive undercount. That works out to around 400 injured per day. And there have been over 33 thousand deaths on top of that. IOW, the casualties from the entirety of a year of Spanish crackdowns on the Catalan independence movement is less than one single day of the Gaza genocide, now entering its seventh month.

Two Things Can at Blogs at the Same Time

The military campaign of the US backed IDF in Gaza is apparently two things simultaneously:

Ultra super careful to avoid civilian casualties AND Killing too many civilians.

The excuse given is that because Hamas hides among civilians, it is very difficult to avoid civilian casualties. So cut the IDF some slack - their mission is almost impossible to achieve without killing a lot of children and civilians  

Okay - let’s agree that this is true, for the sake of the argument. Guess what that means?

The moral imperative for Ceasefire Now is even stronger. The ridiculous nonsense position of the military campaign having to continue is explicitly a statement of “we fully intend on slaughtering a lot more civilians”. That’s the only thing it can mean. Isn’t it? 

Too many civilians have already died despite Israel’s best efforts at protecting them. I mean yes - I recognize that Israel is lying its ass off with this fairy tale - but also at the same time - they are saying that they cannot be more careful. They have exercised as much care as they believe is possible. Sure any reasonable person can see this is a load of crap - but also, it is 100% believable that Israel is not willing to put any more effort into not killing Palestinians. 

Which leaves us back at my initial point. Any desire to continue the hunt for Hamas explicitly means massive civilian casualties. 

Maybe some press guy could ask Matt Miller or one of the other State department assholes the question. 

Update on How Well the Blogging is Going

Protests in Tel Aviv demanding new elections are numbering 45,000 to 100,000. For scale, Tel Aviv has a population of around 450,000. So equivalent to at least 10% of the population (man, woman, and child), although certainly some protestors came from outside Tel Aviv. Also, some nutjob drove into the protestors injuring five people.

The US-backed IDF announced the deaths of four soldiers, although Hamas claims to have killed fifteen across five attacks in the past 24 hours. IDF forces are now withdrawing from southern Gaza. Hamas is still capable of firing rockets into Israel.

So what was all of this for? The genocidal campaign of endless war crimes had two goals: to recover the hostages and to "destroy Hamas". These goals were apparently so important that killing or injuring 5% of Gaza's population and subjecting half of the people in Gaza to famine like conditions was acceptable. And Hamas has not been destroyed. IDF action has managed to recover three hostages - but also managed to murder three hostages that escaped. So not really a passing grade here.

We're also still seeing the American funded IDF open fire on aid seekers on Al-Rashid Street at the same place the Flour Massacre took place. Also, violent raids in the West Bank committed by US-supported Israeli militant groups continues unabated with the numbers of Palestinian hostages taken since October 7th now exceeding 8,000. The conditions these hostages are subjected to are inhumane and torturous, as reported by Israel's own doctors.

Just this week, two prisoners had their legs amputated due to handcuff injuries, which unfortunately is a routine event

 So, I guess the grade for progress on the goals of Israel's military campaign is "not great".

EDIT to add:

The WCK attack that has the Western allies all frustrated and upset. Took place AFTER the Security Council demanded an immediate ceasefire. If Biden really is upset about the merciless hunting down of foreign aid workers by a missile firing Israeli drone - well he should pin some blame on the lawless monsters who told Israel that UNSC demands for an immediate ceasefire are "non-binding".

Erez Crossing

These two points have been made elsewhere - but they are important enough that they bear repeating. For background - what is prompting the observation is that within hours of the US threatening to put conditions on military aid - not actually doing it, merely saying that it is a consideration - the Knesset voted to open a new crossing to deliver aid to northern Gaza. 

1. Biden can in fact influence Israeli military policy. The corollary to this of course is that - absolutely yes, Biden is more than complicit in the disastrous state of things in Gaza. He is a full willing participant. 

2. Israel is blocking aid. They absolutely could do things to improve delivery of food and water and medicine to northern Gaza. They just didn’t. And now they are going to because they have to. 

To be clear - that crossing is not open yet. And also too - it’s fucking disgusting that tens of thousands of slaughtered Gazans failed to move the needle, but as soon as some foreign aid workers from allied countries get hunted to death. It’s suddenly a humanitarian crisis that needs action. 

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end for the campaign of genocide. Preventing further loss of life is the primary goal.

The Drone Strikes on World Central Kitchen

It's quite surprising but there have been "consequences" for the WCK drone strike already.  Two officers have been fired and three more were reprimanded. Looks like investigations can happen quickly and ludicrously insufficient actions can be taken. It will be interesting to see if this farce of "accountability" is enough to placate the assholes who have to pretend to be upset about aid workers getting murdered.

The most offensive part of this is of course that when foreign nationals are killed - it's an actual concern. There have been something like 200 aid workers killed in Gaza prior to the WCK strike - and nothing. Because they were just Palestinians, so it doesn't matter if they get murdered. But killing people from Israel's allied countries? That's unacceptable and "accountability" must follow. It's been over two months since Hind Rajab was killed - that's the little girl who phoned for help from the car with her dead family in it. Aid workers co-ordinated with the IDF to send some medics in to save her, and shortly after they were dispatched - they were killed. As was Hind. Where is that investigation at?

The next most offensive part is the measures taken. Two officers have been fired and three others were reprimanded. That's all. Nothing else.  Wheeeeee! Also note - there's already a backlash to this in Israel with the far right nutjobs (who have important positions in the War Cabinet) are already accusing Netanyahu of abandoning their soldiers in the middle of a war zone. So that'll be interesting to watch develop.

Apparently, murdering the staffers of a personal friend of Biden's was enough for the US to threaten to change their policies. Not to actually change anything - but to at least consider putting conditions on military aid. This had been an unimaginable step before the WCK drone strikes - merely suggesting it was enough to be labelled antisemitic. But I guess Biden is Hamas now.  An additional step is that the US considering requiring labels on goods from the Occupied West Bank. We'll see if this happens or if it goes the same way as the sanctions they imposed on the handful of Israeli settler terrorists that got scrapped shortly after being "implemented".

Rogue State Blogging

Yesterday, Israel pulled out of al-Shifa hospital and we got to say the carnage and destruction they laid. 16 ICU patients were taken off life preserving equipment to die. There are dozens if not hundreds of bodies, some showing signs of being executed. Israel then followed this up by bombing an embassy - apparently something that has never happened in the history of modern warfare. And then they capped it off by air striking a World Central Kitchen vehicle, killing 7 foreign aid workers and 1 Gazan. It's a pretty breathtaking display of contempt for international law. But once you realize that Israel is a rogue state - none of it is actually surprising.

Israel bombed an embassy! The military forces of nations have never done this before - it is a clear and blatant violation of the laws of war! It's diplomatic staff that were killed! The same class of people that these assholes who plan this shit belong to! Surely they must at least have empathy for people doing the same jobs as them! Lol, no. Israel is a supremacist nation - unless those diplomatic personnel were Israeli, they don't count. Also, rogue states do not behave the way that regular nations do. They behave like terrorists - and terrorists attack embassies. So, not at all surprising.

Israel killed 7 aid workers! Lol. Come on. Israel mows down aid workers on the reg. They have been using aid deliveries to northern Gaza to stage attacks on Gazans trying to get that food for distribution among the population. The number of UNRWA workers killed so far - well we don't really know since the state of most infrastructure in Gaza is irreparably broken - but it's at least 168. Eight in one blow is higher than the average, but there are so many of these fatal assaults on aid workers that it's not actually surprising. People are just mad about it because this time, they cannot ignore it by relying on the never-stated assumption that Palestinian lives just don't count. It's a big deal because foreign nationals were killed. Which is gross.

Even the al-Shifa hospital atrocities are not new. The IDF withdrew from some Gaza City neighbourhoods before, leaving behind scenes of atrocities. In one case, they found 30 body bags where the corpses were blindfolded, legs and hands tied. So again, not new. And totally consistent behaviour from a rogue terror state.

And all of this too - the "discovery" that Israel is engaging in war crimes, just doing unimaginably horrific shit - also not new. How many times can one be surprised by a nation's lawlessness when they engage in lawlessness nearly constantly? How many times can the world ask the IDF to conduct "investigations" into the slaughter of aid workers when we know the IDF lies all the time?

It's an infinite number. Truth and reality don't matter anymore. As with the October 7th mass rape allegations - evidence is irrelevant. This is also a part of genocide - the crime is not merely the destruction of the victims - which is of course more than bad enough. But also, it is the destruction of the humanity of the perpetrators. People are forced into denying reality because the reality is genocide - and it is something they supported. And so, genocide denial and refusal to acknowledge reality abound. The alternative is acknowledging that you have been supporting genocide. And also of course, the denialism is support of genocide. A vicious circle that is your soul swirling down the drain.

Yesterday was a day filled with evidence of Israeli war crimes - but it really was not much unlike many of the days which have preceded it. And when the fucking sociopathic genocidal monsters in the Biden Administration have had months of practice denying reality, so what's one more day of standing at the podium and yelling "BUT HAMAS!" It's not like their humanity has interfered with their genocide support before, so why should it this time? It didn't, it won't, there's nothing that Israel can do that would change this.

And there is no justice. It is basically guaranteed that none of these assholes - in Israel or in its enabler allies - none of them will suffer any consequences for their genocidal behaviour. The most I can hope for is that they never get another peaceful night of sleep ever again. But I doubt even this will come to pass. They probably have untroubled sleep, atop the bodies of tens of thousands of dead.

Blogging The Right to Exist

Here's one of the justifications for the genocide. Israel's right to exist. Apparently, mass slaughter of civilians and the infliction of famine upon millions of people is justified because Hamas does not recognize Israel's "right to exist".

The facile comment about this is that Israel has very literally denied the right of tens of thousands of Gazans to exist by bombing them to death. That's very true, but it doesn't speak to what is being referred to here as "the right to exist".

The right to exist is about the existence of Israel as a nation. We are talking about the right to exist for the state of Israel. And while a lot of people get hung up on land and borders - this right to exist is about Israeli people. It is the right of Israelis to be recognized as an independent and sovereign nation-state. The right of the Israelis to elect governments and determine their own future. To make decisions and choices for their country.

This is where Biden is coming from - he speaks about Israel's right to exist and his stated goal is to have a normalization process with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States - for those nations to recognize the existence of Israel as a legitimate nation.

But in the Biden-verse, the right for states and nations to exist does not extend to Palestinians. He talks of the "two-state solution" but tries to square that with Israel's outright opposition to it by suggesting that a "state" can be many different things. The Biden "two-state solution" is one sovereign state of Israel and one occupied territory without sovereignty that he calls a "state". It is a branding solution - one that ensures perpetual violence and unrest in the region. It is in fact, the status quo - but with tweaked labels.

This is just the conclusion that Joe Biden gets to because he simply does not consider Palestinians to be human beings. He really doesn't. Anything he says to indicate otherwise is immediately undermined by his actual actions. If he were to state his actual beliefs - that Palestinians are not deserving of basic human dignity and should instead be exterminated - well the war would be over. He knows that if he were to drop the mask and openly call for genocide, he would lose enough support to maintain the war. Thus he pretends that he thinks Palestinians deserve human rights - all in order to prolong the genocide campaign. 

Is this extreme? An incredibly negative view of Biden? No, it isn't. There is no other explanation for his actions - for his constant vetoes of ceasefire resolutions - and then when forced into not vetoing one, his direct efforts at undermining international law by calling the resolutions non-binding. There is no other explanation for his choice to continue to arm the IDF when he has seen for half a year now what happens with the bombs and munitions he sends to them. And Biden does not believe that Palestinians as a group deserve human rights - one of the most basic of which is the right to exist - to self-determination and freedom from oppression and occupation. That is the official position of the USA - that there is no right to exist for Palestine.

Just a reminder when these assholes talk about the "right to exist". They don't extend it to others - it's not a human right, it is a cudgel to beat down opposition to genocide.

Blogging and the Tulsa Race Massacre

A lot of people know about this dark episode because of the HBO Watchmen series - but regardless of how you found out about it, it's an important event in American history that should be more widely discussed. The wikipedia page is very detailed, helpful to get this kind of synopsis of the events. 

Before moving on, let me state that I do not mean to minimize the horrors of that massacre. But it was just over a century ago and while it still has effects that carry over through to today - I am referring to it to make a point about Gaza. Do I believe that a lot more needs to be done in the name of reconciliation? Absolutely 100% yes. And not just for the events from 1921 - but also the godawful racist bullshit treatment that followed for generations afterwards. But, like almost everything, it kinda vanishes when compared to the scale of the genocide that is currently happening in Gaza.

So, back to 1921. The precipitating events to the massacre were the outbreaks of violence on May 31. 10 whites and 2 Blacks were left dead. And then the backlash exploded - the National Guard was fully mobilized to act against Americans and white people went about burning Black Wall Street to the ground. While the official death toll was in the dozens - almost certainly it was hundreds that were killed. 10,000 were made homeless, thousands more were incarcerated. It was just a massive orgy of violence, where fire bombs were dropped from airplanes into residential neighbourhoods. Air strikes - in 1921.

And even back in 1921, it was recognized by some that this was a shameful and horrific act of violent racism that needed to be addressed. But, in the way white society almost always deals with their heinous acts of racist violence, it got ignored for generations. Just memory-holed and forbidden from being discussed for as long as they could get away with it. The wiki lists a couple dozen items under "In popular culture" - one self-published book from 1923 - and then nothing for the next seventy years. It wasn't until 1996 that a commission was finally convened to investigate - prompted by the shame and knowledge that the remaining survivors were now quite elderly and might never see any official acknowledgement of this hate fuelled crime against humanity.

Restitution still has not meaningfully been made - but the story is now at least a little better known. And not just from Watchmen - the majority of the wiki's "In popular culture" list is after 2000. And on the 100-year anniversary, the presiding president finally officially attended the site. In that speech Biden stated:

Some injustices are so heinous, so horrific, so grievous, they cannot be buried, no matter how hard people try.

So - an official state response to violence perpetrated by a small group of an oppressed minority got massively out of hand resulting in the flattening of entire neighbourhoods and order-of-magnitude disproportionate deaths. That's the Gaza genocide, but only about 1% of the scope. Gaza has a hundred times more dead and injured. A hundred times more damage to civilian infrastructure. And Gaza has been going on for over a hundred times as long. IOW, the genocide campaign in Gaza is the Tulsa Race Massacre, only continued for a hundred times longer. At least that's where it is now - there is no signs of things stopping, and in fact things are still getting worse.

One hundred Tulsa Race Massacres. Black Wall Street getting firebombed, but one hundred times over. That's Gaza. If the destruction of Greenwood was "so heinous, so horrific, so greivous, they cannot be buried, no matter how hard people try" - well what does Joe think about Gaza? Does Joe think that people will be able to bury those injustices?

You Can't Just Blog and Not Listen

The Biden event at Radio City Music Hall was one of those opportunities to be disappointed by Obama. Imagine saying "You can't just talk and not listen." FFS, he ought to know better - but I guess it's just been far too long since his community organizing days.

They are the ones with all the power. Everybody IS listening to them - we have no choice. The things they say have the force of the system behind it. And it's just fucking mind blowing that a Black man who grew up in the 70s and 80s in the US wouldn't have this burned into their souls.

This it the thing that these assholes do not understand. We have listened to them. We hear them loud and clear. We just think they are wrong - factually wrong, morally wrong, and just plain common sense wrong. Wrong wrong wrong. Yes, it is a visceral and intense level of disagreement with them - but it is not one that shuts out their voices.

We know what they are saying. I mean - we are all forced to condemn Hamas and chant "October 7th" a fucking million times before being allowed to speak - we know their points. And we agree with these too! We DO condemn Hamas and we DO recognize the horrific atrocities that were committed on October 7th. But that does not justify what is happening in Gaza right now. It absolutely doesn't. And moreover - these fucking smug sanctimonious fucking genocidal assholes know this. They will not contest this argument - because they know they are wrong on it. So they just fucking ignore it. And then they trot out Obama to tell us we're not listening to them. Just so fucking wrong.

I guess it's a small step of progress - while these monsters still deny that what is happening in Gaza is genocide, at least they have acknowledged that it is a catastrophe. But they are still ignoring the argument that October 7th does not justify genocide - and the do this by treating the two as unrelated. It's possibly an even more offensive argument than before when they just pretended that Gazans weren't dying in the thousands. They now agree that they are dying in the thousands - but this is just some mysterious thing with no cause - something that just manifests out of nowhere - please don't think about it at all.

There was another bit that came out from these glorious presidents - perhaps the next wave of genocide apologia. Biden said something about this being about the very existence of Israel. What a fuckin load of bullshit. No seriously - anyone looking at the Gaza right now that thinks that it is Israel that is in danger - they are fucking racist ass genocidal psychos. That they think this appeal makes even a lick of sense just proves the worst of it. These assholes do not believe that Palestinian lives are worth protecting.

Non-Binding Resolutions

So the UN Security Council finally managed to pass a call for an immediate and lasting ceasefire. It would have been an immediate and permanent ceasefire, but the US insisted on changing that word because reasons. It passed with a vote of 14-0, with the US abstaining. They did not veto this ceasefire demand, as they had previously on multiple occasions.

And then immediately afterwards, the whole State mechanism trotted out their latest insult to civilized society. Apparently, this Security Council resolution is "non-binding". Moreover - in an exchange with a reporter, Matt Miller stated quite clearly that not only did the US consider the UNSC resolution non-binding but also that the US had no expectations of Israel complying with it.

Anyways, this stupid claim is wrong. It's like Alina Habba levels of not understanding the law. Here is the UN Charter. And this is the text of Article 25:

Article 25

The Members of the United Nations agree to accept and carry out the decisions of the Security Council in accordance with the present Charter.

It's unambiguous. If you are a member of the UN, you have agreed to accept and carry out the decisions of the Security Council. Therefore decisions made by the UNSC are binding on all member states. There's no exceptions or loopholes to this - if the UNSC passes a resolution, it is legally binding. All UN Member States have expressly agreed to it.

Well apparently, the US is relying on some weird bullshit argument that UNSC resolutions are only binding if Chapter VII is invoked. IOW, unless a UNSC resolution says anything about "Threats to the Peace, Breaches of the Peace, and Acts of Aggression" - then it's not a real UNSC resolution. This is wrong. The International Court of Justice addressed this exact question back in 1971.

113. It has been contended that Article 25 of the Charter applies only [p 53] to enforcement measures adopted under Chapter VII of the Charter. It is not possible to find in the Charter any support for this view. Article 25 is not confined to decisions in regard to enforcement action but applies to "the decisions of the Security Council" adopted in accordance with the Charter.

IOW, current US understanding of international law is based on an obviously bullshit idea that has already been expressly rejected by the ICJ. The argument they are relying on has already been determined to be wrong. They are wrong on the facts of the case.

Now if it were only that - well it's been clear for quite some time that the US wants this genocide to continue. It's just amazing what they are willing to sacrifice to ensure that the damage to the people of Gaza is maximized. This "non-binding" bullshit is not merely factually incorrect - but it is also some amazing levels of the US damaging their own interests.

This attempt at trivializing UNSC resolutions directly undermines the UN and international law in general. These institutions have been incredibly friendly to US and Western interests. The UN is the body by which a lot of US foreign policy gets implemented around the world. Seriously, who thinks a weaker UN and a weaker UNSC benefits the USA? Apparently these fucking useless assholes at State. No wait - if those paste eating morons were useless, that would be a massive improvement. This is active harm, requiring substantial effort. Calling them useless is wrong - they are far worse than that.

Here's another point - over the years and multiple US vetoes at the Security Council, the concept of a "rules based system of order" had been strained. Countries outside of the clique were looking in and seeing hypocrisy and obvious double standards. And to be fair, it was not the US alone that was wielding its UNSC veto in inconsistent ways - but to be clear - it is mostly the US doing this. But what we have here is different. It's not the US vetoing a resolution - it is the US outright declaring that no UNSC resolutions have any force unless the US says they do. That they demand the power to veto UNSC resolutions without even having to exercise their veto. The "rules based" system apparently is Calvinball rules. So - what does this mean for US foreign policy? What does this mean for how the US engages with other nations, when the US says "international law is optional whenever we don't like what it says"?

And for what? What do they get from this? They could have just vetoed again - they seem to be more than happy to veto shit that is firmly supported by the rest of the world. Is it because these stupid morons think that this helps them. They think that they can now be seen as supporting an immediate ceasefire - the words being directed at them by the public, by other nations, by their own staffers, and by countless aid agencies around the world. Even though they did not even vote in favour of it. This of course is an incredibly stupid plan that will not work. The famine is still going to happen and Israel is not letting up at all on their military operations. Multiple members of the Israeli government have already come out condemning the resolution, implying that Biden is a Hamas flunkie, and clearly indicating that they have zero intention of complying. And the US is not only not doing anything about it - they are actively encouraging it by saying the resolution is "non-binding".

Maybe. Maybe that's it. They could be just stupid. But often in situations like this, you also have to consider "maybe they are evil". And maybe that's the plan here. The US knows that the War in Gaza is going to have to stop eventually - and they've said outright that it will be diplomatic pressure that will force the operations to cease. So what this whole "non-binding" charade is - it's an attempt to prolong the war. To obfuscate and confuse things - to invalidate international bodies to prevent them from being used as a mechanism to apply pressure. IOW, what Team Biden is after here - is for Israel to have more time to do as much damage as possible to the people of Gaza. I know that sounds crazy - but at some point, you have to acknowledge reality. And the reality is that Biden's actions - of not applying the influence he has to allow food and water deliveries but instead shipping more and more bombs and munitions - they have all pointed to his position being "MOAR WAR PLZ".

Saying Goodbye to Brian Mulroney

I was holding off on this until all the hagiographies were done. While he died on Leap Day, the ass-kissing class of people that control our media wanted almost a full month of praising this fucking piece of shit asshole, and the state funeral wasn't until March 23.

It's fucking mindboggling. All this bullshit about the great 18th Prime Minister of Canada and how wonderful he was and whatnot. Dude was garbage. He managed to hoodwink people through his first term in office well enough to get a second majority - but holy shit did he fail with it. So fucking hard. Arguably the single worst prime minister in Canada's entire history.

He was leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, so I think it's fair to judge his performance based on the fortunes of the party he lead. The conservative party in Canada has gone through multiple names and iterations over time, and the PCs came to be known as such in 1942. And Mulroney managed to kill the brand dead. The conservative party is now the Conservative Party of Canada - the Progressive Conservatives are gone.

In 1988, Mulroney managed to lead the PCs to a majority government with 43% of the vote. 169 seats, which would shrink to 156 as the 1993 election drew closer. This was a drop from the 1984 election which was a backlash to the complacent too-long-in-power Liberals. And really - that's all it was. The "natural governing party of Canada" had overstayed their welcome (having held government for something like two decades before the election) and Mulroney was just in the right place at the right time to be made Prime Minister. And then he managed to stay relatively popular for one term - then fucked up everything so badly that it's hard to actually understand the damage he did.

158 seats going into the 1993 election. How did they do? They elected Jean Charest and Elsie Wayne. Two seats. Two. You could count them on your thumbs.

The collapse of the conservatives allowed the establishment of not one - but two new political parties. Mulroney's complete alienation of the Canadian electorate created a vacuum into which Preston Manning's Reform Party stepped in - picking up 52 seats. Also, Mulroney's hubristic delusions of being the saviour of Canada's constitution and resolving the Quebec issue was so badly played that a Quebec sovereigntist party, the Bloc Quebecois, became the official opposition with 54 seats. I just want to reiterate this - Mulroney's second term as PM was so bad that Canadians fucking elected a secessionist party to be the official opposition. Just fucking nuts.

It was lasting damage too. The PCs stayed at 2 seats in the 1997 election. They would flounder for a bit, trying to hold on to their heritage as Canada's actual conservative party, but the Alberta rednecks had cemented themselves as the viable conservative party. Peter MacKay signed the death warrant when he reneged on his promise not to merge the party with the social conservatives from out west and that was the end of it.

Mulroney himself though? Did not stick around to face the music. Even with a majority, he still had to call an election in 1993 - so he bailed, announcing his resignation in February and handing the party over to Kim Campbell in June. The election was in September - so she had three months to convince the country that the party was different - and basically nobody knew who the hell she was.

So he fucked shit up worse than any Canadian politician ever. He lucked into a majority resulting from a once in a lifetime backlash to the Liberals and then managed to turn that into such hatred and vehemence of the opposition party that it actually collapsed out of existence.

He sucked shit. And this is all without mentioning his terrible policies or the fucking manilla envelopes stuffed full of thousand dollar bills. The guy was a corrupt traitor and Canada actually recognized it and killed his entire political party for it - and yet people have been singing his praises for weeks. And that's the story of our 18th Prime Minister. Just a garbage person who managed to get away with everything.

We Teach Life Sir

Since I’ve already suggested that everyone should read a thirty thousand word story from 1981, I guess I should keep recommending things. I mean if anyone actually reads these interminably long posts of mine, it’s pretty clear that I don’t much respect my audience’s time. 

Which is of course, actually true. I blog to quiet the voices in my head. I kind of expect no one to read these things. 

Anyways, the recommendation is a spoken word piece about Gaza. From Rafeef Ziadah from the time before the time before the time before the last time Israel assaulted Gaza. Or maybe the time before that. Anyways, here it is.

Why do I mention it? Because it is an amazing piece. But why do I mention it now? Well, I saw something that reminded me of that question “Don’t you think everything would be resolved if you just stopped teaching so much hatred to your children?”

Here’s what reminded me of that question.

True Names of Vernor Vinge

Vernor Vinge died on Wednesday. One of the old school SF writers that ushered in the age of cyberpunk and all that Intartrons nonsense. And as a shitposter, I feel it is important to acknowledge the man who predicted our world so incredibly accurately. 

The first Vinge I read was True Names. Let me just say right now, if you have not read it - stop reading anything else and track it down. It is amazing, and also - I am going to be spoiling it in this post. Now to be clear - as a story it is quite good, maybe even great (with a small g) - but it's not some transcendent work of narrative genius that will leave you weeping. It's a bit of a spy-thriller and the plot beats of it follow that template quite closely. Have their been Great Works (capital letters) that were spy-thrillers? Probably - it's not really my genre of choice - but I suspect that it's not all that many of them.

There are some more philosophical bits about the nature of the human condition, especially near the end - but end loading it like that made it feel kind of tacked on (even though you can tell it clearly isn't tacked on if you reread the story). Anyways - at its core function, as an SF-thriller novella - it is solid. A real page turner that actually engages the reader and makes you want to get to the end to see how it all turns out. But that's not why I think everyone should read it. There are loads of solid SF-thriller stories - and while True Names is good - I don't think of it as one of the Greats in terms of entertainment.

The reason it is one of the Greats (with a Capital G) is because of the other thing speculative fiction does - exploring the ideas contained within. And here, True Names is unsurpassed. Many of the core ideas of the story still seem like interesting takes on online culture. True Names was written in 1981 - a year before Burning Chrome, the predecessor to Neuromancer. Anyways, let's explore this a bit.

In 1981, there was a novella about the online space. Seventeen years before Google. Eight years before Tim Berners-Lee proposed the WorldWideWeb to CERN. Three years before William Gibson wrote about Henry Dorsett Case. This is a story about cyberspace that predates the word cyberspace. A story written when only a small fraction of people had ever heard the word "internet" - and even then, usually as "inter-networked".

The core conceit of the story is that in an online world, people with the ability to manipulate data and online systems are like wielders of powerful magic (called "warlocks" in the story) who have as their greatest weakness and liability their "True Names" - their names IRL. If one warlock has another's True Name, they have complete control over them. IOW, in 1981 there was an SF story where doxxing was a core feature in the world building.

Also too, the bad guy is an AI. One developed by the military for legitimate purposes (to protect government online assets from warlocks and enemy agents) that got out of hand because the folks in charge of it left it running without oversight. So the events of the story are prompted by someone using AI improperly.

In 1981.

It's been a while since I revisited his other works. I do recall them being fun reads also with interesting ideas - like how the Peace War and the bobbles worked. But True Names is the work of his that I remember best - and still surprises and shocks me how much of our world today he got bang on correct.

RIP in peace, Vernor Vinge.

I’m not ready to say I did it on purpose, I’m not ready to say I didn’t

The starvation campaign in Gaza is almost certainly worse than you think it is. Very few of us have any actual knowledge of what starvation does to people - maybe we've been in circumstances or seen others in situations where they have gone hungry for a long time. Some people voluntarily subject themselves to calorie restricted diets and maintain them for a long time. None of this is starvation and the difference is huge. It is not easy to die of starvation, it takes weeks of zero calorie intake - and months if you instead have a drastically reduced intake. It is a slow death that is as horrific and ghastly as anything we can imagine.

The campaign is worse than I thought it was. You cannot reverse this degree of starvation easily. The attacks on aid seekers and places that are internationally recognized as sanctuaries exempt from war (unless Israel it is Israel killing off Palestinians) will discourage people from going to get food - even as they die of starvation. And the agency with the most capacity to distribute aid in Gaza and that retains at least some credibility among the people there is UNRWA, which has been defunded.

My other concern was about refeeding syndrome - the physiological and metabolic changes the body implements to deal with starvation are in some ways incompatible with eating. Your blood chemistry gets all messed up - and in this state, eating can kill you. The wiki has a pretty clean explanation of the mechanism. So even if you could open up the gates and flood food into the Gaza Strip, the mere act of eating will kill more people because they have already been starved for too long.

How much starvation is there? There's actually a measurement for this, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. There are 5 phases in this classification - 1 is normal, 2 is "stressed", 3 is "crisis", 4 is "emergency", and 5 is "catastrophe". Currently no one in Gaza is at stage 2 or lower. Meaning that the best fed in Gaza are still in crisis. This makes up 12% of the population. 88% are at emergency level or worse. Fully half of Gaza - over a million people - are so hungry that the only classification beyond that is "died of malnutrition". Even if aid could be delivered - a million people are at risk of death by refeeding syndrome, and maybe even more than that. Refeeding syndrome can be avoided through monitoring of blood chemistry and keeping track of electrolyte levels - but the healthcare system in Gaza has been destroyed after months of bombardment. And there are other health impacts like disease and physical trauma that are still on the triage list. Gaza is a place now where amputation (sometimes done without anesthetic) is so widespread that it would be a public health issue if there weren't more pressing emergencies.

But as I mentioned, it's worse even than I think it is. I'm very privileged. I have never known real hunger. I cannot comprehend what this does to people psychologically. And this state is the one most of us live in. But we don't need to have direct personal experience to know things - that's what science is for. BUT, starvation is so bad that we do not allow it under any circumstances (unless it is Israel killing off Palestinians). You cannot conduct an experiment even on willing volunteers to investigate the impacts of starvation. 

Well at least you cannot do that now, but there used to be a time when you could get away with all sorts of stuff so long as it was "For Science!". Which brings me to the Minnesota Starvation Experiment. Here, 36 young men - carefully selected for physical and mental health - were subjected to 24 weeks of starvation and 12 weeks of refeeding (although still at greatly reduced calories). A third of them had an additional 8 weeks of observed unrestricted eating after the program. You can read more about it here.

The impacts are nuts. And this is with people who knew they were in an experiment and that their lives would be returning to normal afterwards (their lives did not return to normal). Who weren't being subjected to round-the-clock bombings or being hunted by drones and IDF patrols. The title of this post is about one guy who cut three of his fingers off during the refeeding phase. Starvation breaks people's minds. And that's what's happen to literally millions of people right now.

The Purpose of Blogging is What it Does

A point I was trying to make earlier - stated intents and motives aren't as important as results. It's like when the US told Kataib Hezbollah "actions speak louder than words". For reference, Kataib Hezbollah has followed up on their words (from January) to refrain from attacking in order to not embarass the Iraqi government by not attacking despite the US assassinating one of their leaders.

Anyways, the US' constant refrain of Israel having to do more to protect civilians while supplying the very bombs being used to slaughter them is one of those examples of bullshitting about motives. As is just about everything that the IDF and Israeli regime says about protecting civilians.

But a lot of people refuse to believe this. They are the "good guys" - how can they be doing the war crimes? Only other people commit crimes, certainly not the Forces of Justice! I mean, Hamas is a terrorist organization - therefore anyone opposing them has got to be good and incapable of doing anything wrong - right? Of course this infantile moronic worldview is ridiculous, but it is also widely accepted.

Here's how I want to refute it. Facts matter. Results matter. And if you accept that, then there are some important consequences:

According to the cybernetician, the purpose of a system is what it does. This is a basic dictum. It stands for bald fact, which makes a better starting point in seeking understanding than the familiar attributions of good intention, prejudices about expectations, moral judgment, or sheer ignorance of circumstances.

Sure "cybernetician" is a pretty wanky word, but the principle here is a pretty good one. Results matter. If a system is doing something - starving children to death for example - then it can only be one of two things - an "unintended consequence" or it is being done on purpose.

With that, let me note the following:

Israel has asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) not to issue emergency orders for it to step up humanitarian aid to Gaza to address a looming famine, dismissing South Africa's request to do so as "morally repugnant". 

In a legal filing to the United Nations' top court, made public on Monday, Israel said it "has real concern for the humanitarian situation and innocent lives, as demonstrated by the actions it has and is taking" in Gaza during the war.

Children have been dying of malnutrition for weeks now. Warnings of starvation were issued by international aid groups last year. What has been demonstrated by Israel's actions is that they are starving children on purpose. If this was an "unintended consequence" - they would have changed their approach a long time ago.

Their excuse for this - the only thing they have to explain their genocidal actions other than just pure eliminationist hatred - is that these are collateral damages in their righteous mission to "destroy Hamas". Just so we are clear - the best case scenario, the kindest take you can have to defend Israel's actions - is that they are intentionally starving children to death over the span of months but that these are acceptable losses.

Israel has now killed more children by starvation in the past month than all children killed by Hamas in any way throughout their entire existence.

And it is only going to get worse.

And this is all intentional on Israel's part. It is what they want to happen.

Two Things Can Be True

Speaking of being late to the party, following is my entry into the "Two Things Can Be True About the Israel-Palestine Crisis" body of work.

1. Hamas is a terrorist organization that brutally murdered hundreds of non-combatants and violently kidnapped hundreds more - including women, children, and the elderly.
2. The IDF and the Israeli government are worse than Hamas. By A LOT. It is not even remotely close.

Facts have to matter. Results have to matter. What Israel has done to Gaza since October 7th is at least an order of magnitude worse than everything that Hamas has ever managed in its entire existence combined.

The only argument I've seen that might bring the comparison close is where you start speculating about motives. "Hamas is worse because their intent is worse" - as if the people making this argument had magical mind reading powers. And even here - any fair accounting that doesn't make bullshit excuses for clear statements of genocidal intent from Israeli leaders would get you to about a draw. I mean, it's a qualitative comparison - you can't put a number on "how anti-social are these motives" - it's just "they aren't", "they are", and "holy shit - are they ever!" And both sides are firmly in category 3. So even when you discard actual results and the actual outcomes of actions from either side - at best, the Israeli government is about as bad as a terrorist organization. Hell, even if you give the genocide deniers their special pleading of "but the Prime Minister, President, Defense Minister, and senior military officers don't speak for Israel" nonsense - the fact that Israel is continuing their murderous campaign despite the civilian casualties and destruction - this demonstrates that their intentions are fucking horrible.

But let's not deal with "intent" that you can only demonstrate at this point with indirect observations and speculation. On every quantifiable measure, by any reasonable standard, the government and military of Israel is worse than Hamas - and usually by a huge amount. Let's just consider a few metrics:

• Number of civilians killed
• Number of children killed
• Ratio of non-combatants to combatants killed
• Number of people injured
• Number of non-combatants injured
• Number of hostages taken
• Duration that hostages have been held
• Number of hostages or prisoners injured
• Number of people who have claimed to have been tortured by each group
• Number of children taken hostage
• Damage to property and civilian infrastructure

And this isn't even considering the current starvation crisis. Which gets us to the even more damning part - the damage that Hamas has inflicted is basically done - and has been done for months. There have been two attacks by Hamas gunmen outside of Gaza since the original mass killing terrorist strike. resulting in I believe five Israelis killed (one of whom was killed by the IDF). OTOH, Israel's campaign of genocide continues vigorously and with new flavours of war crimes being introduced nearly constantly.

Here's a big part of why Gaza is still a big fucking deal to so many people - the scale and scope of what has happened in Gaza is just unbelievable. It's so much horror and suffering that the murderous attack of October 7 is dwarfed to the point of being round-off error. AND - the destruction of Gaza is still ongoing - it's literally still happening right now.

So yes, Hamas is a terrorist organization that committed mass crimes against humanity - in cold blood with ample premeditation. But as bad as Hamas is, the IDF and the government of Israel is objectively worse - and worse by a huge margin.

Starvation as a Weapon of Blogging

The Flour Massacre on Leap Day was horrible enough on its own. It had been nearly five months of the military operation, with insufficient amounts of food and water getting into Gaza. Especially Northern Gaza which by then had not received any humanitarian aid at all for over a month. There were reports of people eating animal feed and grass. Children were already dying to malnutrition. A slow and horrific way to die - starved while literally thousands of aid trucks are being held up at the fence.

In the backlash to that crime and the mounting death toll of starved children, finally more aid trucks were being let through. Only for the IDF to open fire on these aid seekers too. There have been at least four incidents where aid seekers have been mass murdered by IDF fire since the Flour Massacre. It is almost as if the inability of the international community to punish blatant and obvious war crimes prompts the war criminals to continue doing war crimes.

People trying to get humanitarian aid - food and water to keep their kids from starving to death - what threat do they pose? Even the incredibly immoral and stupid automatic defense of the genocide deniers - the whining of "BUT HAMAS!" is meaningless here. Unless the goal is to starve enough of Gaza that Hamas also runs out of food? This is a clear and obvious war crime - it is not merely collective punishment, but it is such a depraved and monstrous view of the Palestinian people that it should disgust the entire world.

No, obviously this is insane. Hamas is a terrorist organization and they have the guns. The last people in Gaza to starve will be the Hamas terrorist gunmen. Trying to starve Hamas into surrendering means first starving two million people to death.

Perhaps the goal is to discourage starving Gazans from seeking aid? That Israel realizes that they will eventually be forced to allow more aid in - which is very slowly happening now - and that they can maximize the number of dead children by scaring Gazans into not seeking the paltry aid they let through. Even if that's not the intention, it's the result. An easily predictable result. That it continues to happen means that either Israel does intend to frighten starving people away from aid delivery or that they just don't give a shit about children starving to death.

Gaza is facing a man made famine. People have been dying of starvation for weeks now and still the level of aid reaching Gaza is woefully insufficient. What possible explanation could there be for this other than genocide? What possible threat could there be to allowing more food and water in? Not even the most contrived fever dreams of the genocide denialists can justify this.

The Hamas Blogging Plan

I know I've mentioned this before, but it definitely bears repeating. Quite likely the biggest reason for the scope and extent of the death and kidnapping on October 7th is that the Israeli security apparatus sucks shit at protecting Israelis. It really does. Just so we are clear on how bad they suck, they had Hamas' Battle Plan for over a year before October 7. It's been a while since I noted this, so let me return to exactly how fucking useless and incompetent these assholes are.

1. Despite the Battle Plan contained sensitive Israeli military secret information, Israeli intelligence dismissed it as being "aspirational". Sure they could steal secret military intelligence from Israel, but surely these terrorist gunmen couldn't, I don't know, carry an assault rifle while riding a motorcycle?
2. They had reports of dry runs being carried out in the summer. This is unsurprising - the people of Gaza, especially those suspected of being Hamas, are very tightly scrutinized and surveilled. So if a large number of Hamas fighters were doing training exercises, Israeli intelligence would have gotten reports of it. And it turns out that the training exercises matched the Battle Plan exactly. But still, the Hamas Battle Plan was dismissed as not being serious.
3. October 7 was the 50th anniversary of the surprise attack that started the Yom Kippur War. And the Hamas Battle Plan was for a surprise attack. It's almost as if someone paying attention could have guessed what the attack as going to be and when it would happen.
4. The number 4 is unlucky.
5. Despite all of that - what did the IDF do in advance of October 7th? They literally transferred troops away from Gaza so they could use them to bolster their support of Israeli settler terrorism in the West Bank.

The bullshit nonsense about "security guarantees" for Israel? Quite clearly and obviously, the biggest threat to Israel is the genocidal psychopaths running the country and the fact that gross incompetence results in zero consequences. There's a word that's been getting thrown around a lot - impunity. Mostly in relation to how the US refuses to do anything to hold Israel to account even when there are rampant and blatant war crimes being committed. But that lack of accountability is not solely a gutless American government issue. So much of the world is just letting this slide - just ignoring it completely.

If Hamas is not destroyed, this does not materially harm Israel's security. I know that sounds crazy - but it's the truth. Even if Hamas wants to destroy Israel (and they absolutely say that they do - so we should believe them) - they can only do what they are capable of. Surely Hamas has been wanting to destroy Israel for many years now! And their huge success in mass murdering Israelis would have been prevented if Israeli security wasn't such pure garbage. More importantly - Hamas is not what's causing terrorist gunmen to want to take up arms and commit mass atrocities in Israel. That would be the occupation. An occupied people will want to be free - and the harsher and worse the conditions of occupation are, the more likely it is for violent terrorist movements to come from it. "Destroying Hamas" will not make Gazans suddenly interested in ensuring Israelis feel safe - especially not now after months of the most intense military  siege since World War 2.