So, the Biden economy was excellent. People are better off now than they were before COVID hit. There were a lot of real problems caused by the pandemic and other factors, but the US managed its way through those issues better than almost every other country in the world. But Americans are certain "The Economy" sucks.
I think there are multiple reasons for this. Let's start off with what I think are the the smallest factors.
I noted that it was the lowest income earners that got the most benefit - but that assessment is based on how you do the groupings. That lowest grouping includes minimum wage earners - the number of whom did not significantly budge over Biden's term. Those people just straight up saw their purchasing power decline by almost a third. A pretty sizable chunk of this lowest income quintile are in fact worse off, and blaming it on inflation is completely accurate. Their struggle is real.
Also too retirees - and it's weird that we haven't heard about this group since they have historically been one of the media's go to interviews. Not just retirees, but anyone on fixed incomes, those reliant on pensions or disability payments and the like. Some of these incomes have tried to pace inflation - social security payments get annual cost-of-living adjustments that are close to CPI rates, but often the cost of goods and services required by older people rise in prices faster than the normal basket of goods. And then there are people who planned out their retirements and have a decent nest egg providing them the income they thought they would need - usually factoring in inflation. Except not the inflation we had post-pandemic. They got hit too.
BUT - this doesn't account for it all. The minimum wage earners? BLS says there's about a million of these people. Retirees? Harris actually did quite well (based on exit polling) with 65+ getting a tie against Trump versus Biden losing them by 5 points in 2020.
So these people definitely exist and they are definitely suffering. There are people who are demonstrably worse off - but it doesn't look to me like this significantly impacted the vote.
4% unemployment is considered full employment. There will always be some percentage of people unemployed - for example, when they change jobs. And also, some people who just have a really hard time finding a job. These people are also getting shafted by inflation offset by wage increases since they are living off savings and employment insurance. But again - not there aren't that many of them. The transitory inflation makes it suckier to be jobless - but joblessness is sucky even with normal levels of inflation and there's less joblessness now than in previous elections. Chronic job seekers are already primed to say The Economy Sucks even without the 2022 price surges, and this group is historically small.
How about the vanishing Middle Class - did they get shellacked with the transitory inflation? Inflation adjusted median income, both household and personal income, roughly flat since the pandemic. Not great, but pretty decent considering what Biden was dealing with. That said, no one was asked "how is the economy doing, considering the challenges Biden had to face with the global pandemic". So, on balance, the median income buys about as much today - even with current egg prices - than it did before the pandemic hit. The implication is that the number of people doing better is roughly the same as the number of people doing worse. So this might have rightly contributed to the number of people saying "The Economy Sucks" versus those that are wrong about it.
And indeed, polling bears this out. Back in May, 41% said that their personal finances had improved, but only 23% said the economy was good.
There are probably many other small factors - but these are the ones I have thought through. So - not a comprehensive list, but a list of things which are true and might have lead to people being down on The Economy - but are poor explanations as to why people voted for Trump on the Economy.
Do I have a good idea as to why people think the Economy sucks? Probably not. I have an idea that I think is a good explanation, but it's entirely possible that I'm totally wrong. We'll tackle that next time on "watch d-kw rant about random shit so he doesn't go back to screaming about genocide again".
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