Looks Like We Need a Guardian for Prosperity Guardian

So let's put this in context again. The Combined Maritime Forces, a loose coalition 39 countries, was formed to combat terrorism and piracy on the high seas. With a specific and explicit mention of protecting major international shipping routes. Responding to the Houthi attacks on shipping headed toward the Red Sea is literally the purpose of the coalition.

The US managed to get 10 other countries (so 11 of 39 including America) to sign up, in part by requiring essentially zero contributions. IOW, nearly 3/4 of countries felt that looking like they were too close to the US/Israel was worse than outright ignoring their commitment to protect international trade from terroris attacks.

Well, the update is that even this farce of a force is at risk. For clarity - France is still part of the operation, but they refuse to follow US command. As for Italy and Spain, Italy says that while t hey are sending a frigate to the region - this was to protect Italy's interests and is not part of Prosperity Guardian. Spain says that they aren't part of any mission that isn't under either EU or NATO leadership.

Clearly these nations recognize the importance of protecting international shipping. From terrorist atatcks. Very obviously the right thing to do. But also apparently, less right than being seen as siding with US/Israel.

Operation Prosperity Blogging - It's Lonely Defending Genocide

A couple weeks ago, Mouin Rabbani had a great Twitter thread about the Houthis and international shipping. Here's the thread reader unroll. Basically, the Houthis in Yemen are attacking international shipping with rockets and drones. While there's been very little actual damage, the cost of these ships is so high that they cannot afford the risk. As a result, boats lining up at the entrance to the Red Sea are having to go around Africa and then through the Mediterranean to eventually make their way to Israel. And they are forced into this because the insurance premiums for transiting the Red Sea are just too high - and this is in comparison to adding weeks to the journey and an ungodly amount of fuel.

Well, turns out that this is exactly right. Since that thread was posted, insurance premiums have increased by an order of magnitude. Shipping companies are in fact making the weeks long detour.

Also, as it turns out, there's a mechanism in place for this. Of course there is - international shipping is so important to the global capitalist system that it would be crazy if there wasn't. That mechanism is the Combined Maritime Forces - "a multi-national naval partnership, which exists to promote security, stability and prosperity across approximately 3.2 million square miles of international waters, which encompass some of the world’s most important shipping lanes." Their mission is to defeat terrorism and prevent piracy. It's like a high seas UN that was created specifically to deal with situations exactly like this one.

So the US went to the CMF to put together Operation Prosperity Guardian. It called on the 38 other member states to pitch in on a mission that exactly matches the mandate. 10 responded. A little better than a quarter of nations agreed to sign up. On a mission to protect international shipping from what are clearly terrorist attacks.

Now some of the CMF countries obviously weren't going to sign up. Yemen is in the CMF! So that's kinda hilarious. But also, there are quite a number of Gulf states (unsurprising considering the importance of shipping crude by boat) that said no. The only Muslim majority country that joined Operation Prosperity Guardian is Bahrain.

IOW, the US and its defense of Israel has become so unpopular that a strong majority of countries are unwilling to be seen with them - even when the US is fighting what are clearly terrorist attacks on international shipping. And make no mistake, this isn't about risking lives and military assets - it's solely about not wanting to be seen as endorsing anything related to the US-Israel military efforts. Participation in  Prosperity Guardian does not require that you pony up a boat. Not even an inflatable life raft. For example, Australia is in with their "six troops, no ships or planes". That's literally twice as much support as Canada is providing. And in order to boost the numbers for the "multi-national force", the Seychelles is in despite the fact that they are sending no one and are providing information sharing only.

Here's another way of looking at it - the UN General Assembly resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire passed with a vote of 153 in favour, 10 against, and 23 abstentions. This was cited as evidence that the US was becoming more isolated - because it absolutely is. But also it's evidence that the US is not just alienating all the assorted random small countries that most Americans have never heard of - it is also alienating its allies.

If you consider only the 31 NATO countries, 2 voted against (Czechia and the US - side note, I was surprised to find that Austria is not a NATO member), 8 abstained (Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, and the UK). Fully two thirds of NATO countries voted for the ceasefire and only one voted with the US. Let me reiterate - a strong majority of NATO countries stand in direct opposition to US foreign policy.

The pro-Israel crowd sees this as evidence that the entire world is deeply antisemitic and supporters of terrorism. And to be fair - there are definitely countries that were likely motivated by antisemitism in adopting their positions. But a strong majority of the entire planet? Come on. One of the things about antisemitism is the dehumanization of Jews. They are reduced to some horrible racist stereotype and not seen as human beings, ones with agency - that deserve credit or blame for their choices and actions.

In their defense, it's a complicated situation. Factually - blaming Jews is a huge part of antisemitism and has been used to support all sorts of atrocities for essentially the entirety of recorded human history. So there most definitely is the risk of enabling some of the worst racists that exist. But also factually - there are some horrible people who happen to be Jews. Being Jewish does not mean you are incapable of bad things.

And bad things have been happening. Israel has been committing atrocities now for over two months. It is in the midst of committing genocide - slaughtering civilians by the hundreds. Day in and day out. And the ones that aren't killed are subject to starvation and disease brought about by Israel's blockade and active destruction of infrastructure inside the Gaza Strip. The vast majority of the world does not approve of terrorism, asserting that they do is nonsense. Terrorism is bad - even if the victims are people you don't like. BUT the thing the Zionist crowd does not seem to get is that Israel is behaving like terrorists - only way better equipped and shielded from accountability by the United States of America.

It's a concept that they are incapable of accepting. Yes, we all agree that Hamas is very bad and the attacks of October 7th were monstrous and indefensible. BUT - what Israel has done and is still continuing to do in Gaza is worse. And the US is doing everything in its power to ensure that the killing continues. No wonder it is sliding into isolation.

Update on How Well the Blogging is Going

Beit Hanoun is in the north east corner of the Gaza Strip. Wiki says that 52K people used to live there. It was one of the "Before and After" satellite image cities that showed the devastation being caused in Gaza. This article is from October 21. There's a clearing area at the top of the map and the after picture shows that even the dirt pathways through an open area have been obliterated. Two days ago, the IDF said that they had "full control" over the area. Again, this is the north east corner of the Gaza Strip. It's as close as anything in Gaza is allowed to be to the security fence. There's a Beit Hanoun crossing (that's been closed for ages). They bombed it into dust and it still took two months to gain full control - despite it being the part of Gaza most easily accessible to Israel. This is where the IDF took control of UNRWA schools, cleared them enough so they could plant explosives, and then filmed the senseless and unnecessary destruction while laughing and cheering in the background.

And that's the IDF saying they have "full control" - and as we all should know by now, the IDF lies.  There is fighting in Beit Hanoun right now. Hamas is filming their attacks on IDF positions here. Israel has hit it again with air strikes just a few hours ago. So, I guess that's how the military campaign is going - just "successes" everywhere.

Still Blogging the Death Toll - How Bad is a 2:1 Ratio?

An update to the Death Toll post.

France 24 has a very detailed breakdown of the casualties from the October 7 attacks.

The final death toll from the attack is now thought to be 695 Israeli civilians, including 36 children, as well as 373 security forces and 71 foreigners, giving a total of 1,139.

This excludes five people, among them four Israelis, still listed as missing by the prime minister's office.

695 Israeli civilians, 71 foreigners, and 5 missing people. So, 771 civilians killed. And 373 mebers of the security forces (they give this breakdown too -  305 soldiers, 58 cops, 10 members of Shin Bet - the Israeli Security Agency). My count includes hostages killed by bombings - but I am not going to count the three hostages that escaped and were shot dead by the IDF as they waved a white flag and pleaded for help in Hebrew. There's got to be a line - and while Hamas is responsible for the hostages that die in their custody - and reasonably, hostages who die while making an attempt to escape to safety - these hostages reached "safety" and were killed by IDF soldiers. That's on the IDF. The France 24 article lists 8 hostages confirmed dead and 19 more presumed dead (of which I'm not including 3). So 24 dead hostages where I assign blame to Hamas.

795 civilian casualties caused by Hamas. In an attack that killed 373 members of the security force that holds their territory under military occupation and blockade. I had earlier put the ratio at 3:1 (mostly because I was working off of only 300 security forces killed) but 2:1 is much closer to the actual ratio. So consider this a correction to my earlier incorrect estimate.

So when the IDF says "I’m not saying it’s not bad that we have a ratio of two to one" - they are conceding that they have the essentially the same disregard for civilian life as Hamas. And again - this is based on the IDF definition of Hamas fighter being "any male and military aged Palestinian in Gaza".

The killing of the three Israeli hostages by the IDF really does hammer this point home. Sure there have been numerous reports of the IDF opening fire on people surrendering - but those reports have been ignored since the people killed were Palestinians. "Maybe they were Hamas!" argue the IDF defenders. But they cannot make the argument here. They will just ignore it because they cannot concede that the IDF kills people who try to surrender despite the obvious evidence that this is true.

It's actually quite breathtaking how the IDF and their supporters keep stepping on rakes. Their hostage killing happened just one week after they did a media blitz of "Hamas fighters" stripped to their underwear and made to kneel on the ground with their hands bound behind their backs. Apparently the IDF campaign was so "successful" that hundreds of "Hamas fighters" surrendered. And that the IDF not only did not shoot them dead, like they do when they aren't filming the interaction, but let them keep their assault rifles so they could turn them over in front of the Israeli media team.

One more note about the death toll. Not all of the Israeli civilians killed on October 7 were killed by Hamas. Some were killed by the IDF. How many? We will never know:

Casualties fell as a result of friendly fire on October 7, but the IDF believes that beyond the operational investigations of the events, it would not be morally sound to investigate these incidents due to the immense and complex quantity of them that took place in the kibbutzim and southern Israeli communities due to the challenging situations the soldiers were in at the time. 

When Israel kills Israelis, that's fine. So fine in fact that it would be morally unsound to even investigate. That's the type of value the IDF and the Israeli government place civilian lives.

Only Our Cows are Sacred, Yours Should be Fed to The Machine

you are morally obligated to vote for hitler but 1% less bad

Now to be clear -  Biden is much much better than "99% as bad as Trump". Trump is way worse. And even if Trump isn't the candidate because he needs to spend more time with his criminal defense attorneys, all of the remaining GOP candidates are much worse than Biden. DeSantis and Ramaswamy are possibly worse than Trump - Haley and Christie are not really that much better.

So I agree that "not supporting Joe means you are indirectly supporting something much worse" is accurate and true. In fact, I am actually happy to say that - aside from enabling genocide - Joe Biden has done a great job as president. He far exceeded my expectations, and has arguably done more good in three years than even the good presidents have in two terms. I would personally place the IRA as being as significant as the ACA. The stewardship of the economy and navigating the pandemic have produced results better than anyone could have imagined. I believe this is the first presidential administration this century where the Gini coefficient has gone down. So even despite the billionaires extending their gap from the 0.1%, Joe's Administration has uplifted the bottom by enough that this gets smudged out. That's impressive.

So Biden has done a great job. Not merely clearing the low bar of "better than you could expect from a GOP president" - but actually great. A return to big government funded infrastructure projects. Real money being directed towards carbon and climate change. A reduction in inequality (or at least a slowing of the increase in inequality). Labour unions have reversed their plummet into irrelevance and are stronger now than they have been for as long as I can remember. Biden has restored at least some power to the people.

But I don't blame those who can no longer support him.

People have lines that they cannot cross. And for them, supporting a regime that enables, funds, and arms genocidaires is just too much. And this seems entirely reasonable to me. Genocide is their dealbreaker - and no amount of strategic voting cajoling will change their minds - and that should be seen as reasonable. It's fucking genocide we're talking about!

But the tut-tutters are out in force. "Don't you know that the genocide will be worse with Trump in the Oval Office?" I mean - maybe. Trump is worse on almost everything, except competence. At least with Trump in charge, there's a chance that Israel doesn't get as many bombs simply because Trump and the people he would put into his administration - are mostly incompetent boobs. But sure - this is a reasonable thing to suggest, that "Trump will be worse". However, I still agree that this is not enough to get someone to go against their principle of "no genocide".

Anywho - the example I go to as a dealbreaker issue is abortion. I've asked people to consider - what if Biden did an about face on abortion and pushed for a nation-wide 15 week ban? There are certainly GOPpers who have a worse position on it than this - so voting for hypotehtical forced birther Biden would still be voting for "hitler but 1% less bad" even only considering the issue of abortion. Would that be a valid reason to not go to the polls in November 2024?

The only answer to this is "well Biden would never." And this is also very probably true - but it does give the game away. Some cows are sacred, but others are not. Women having bodily autonomy is non-negotiable, but providing the weapons to keep a genocide continuing is just a bargaining chip.

Biden's now done an about face on immigration. He's looking to bring back Trump's worst immigration policies and possibly juice them up. So the belief that "Biden would never" might be misplaced. Immigrants are now just another bargaining chip.

Here's another point I need to be clear about. If someone has "I will never support a forced birther" as one of their principles - I think that's entirely reasonable too. If someone decides to sit out an election because they think none of the candidates are strong enough on women's health - that seems like a valid position to me. I agree that your cow is sacred. Abortion access keeps women from dying and also greatly improves their freedom and quality of life. Knowing that they have the option allows women to make better and more choices with their lives. That's hugely important - and disturbingly relevant right now.

But so is Palestine. Hundreds of people are violently killed every day. Millions are starving even though aid trucks are lined up at the border. 90% of the population of the Gaza Strip has been displaced from their homes. Shit is really fucked up over there - and it is ONLY possible because of Joe's unconditional support of the most right-wing and fascist government that Israel has ever had. It is reasonable for this to be a dealbreaker.

Look at How Well the Blogging is Going

The UN General Assembly voted on Tuesday to call for an immediate ceasefire. That resolution passed 153 in favour versus 10 against. That day, Joe Biden said that Israel "risked losing international support". I mean I don't get it. The international community voted 153 -10 against Israel, what "international support" does it have to lose?

For a point of reference, the previous vote on October 26 for "humanitarian pauses" passed 120 - 14. Among the countries that abstained in October and voted for peace this time around are Canada, Australia, and New Zealand - who issued a joint statement earlier that day. India, Japan, the Philippines, Poland, Greece, Finland, Sweden, and Iceland are also amongst the group that moved from abstention in October to supporting a ceasefire this week. So - what does Biden mean that Israel "risks losing international support"?

The stated goal of Israel includes the destruction of Hamas. The humiliation videos and pictures of men stripped to their underwear is part of Israel's narrative spinning here. Israeli ministers and IDF officials have been telling a story of Hamas fighters surrendering - evidence that "Israel is winning" and that Hamas is broken. Yesterday, the "broken" Hamas fighters executed a complex multi phase ambush - where they attacked a patrol and trapped them in a cluster of three buildings, held them there and waited for reinforcements to arrive, trapped the reinforcements in the same area, and then set off IEDs which dropped the buildings onto the soldiers. This happened in Gaza City, in the neighbourhood of Shejaiya where the IDF had claimed that they had secured and where they had largely disrupted the command and control of the fighters.

The Times of Israel article has a lot of details about what happened. Notable in the list of killed IDF soldiers are their ranks: a colonel, a lieutenant colonel, 3 majors, a captain, and 3 sergeants. Maybe Israel just gives out officer commissions like candy at Halloween, I dunno. Still, this looks pretty bad to me. And it does really put a question mark on how "broken" Hamas is. Maybe it was just really bad luck that resulted in an ambush that killed 6 officers including a colonel and lieutenant colonel, and no one below the rank of sergeant.

The losses to the IDF also raise another point about how much Israel is "winning" this war. 115 soldiers killed (although technically, 20 of them were killed by friendly fire and not Hamas) is bad, but still pretty low considering how much fighting has been going on. But adding to this toll is in the number wounded, which is not small. As of December 10, the IDF was acknowledging 1,593 wounded (892 minor injuries) - which is bad, but doesn't seem terrible. But as we know, the IDF lies. Haaretz looked at hospital numbers and they think it's over 3,000.

Yes, this is quite minor relative to the scale of destruction inflicted on Gaza - a campaign based almost entirely on air strikes will look like that. But I'm pretty sure that this is not a price that Israel was expecting to pay. And what have they gotten for all those dead and broken bodies? Hamas is still as functional and capable as they were before. The flag of Palestine and the keffiyeh have become global symbols of resistance to occupation. Sure doesn't seem like this war is going according to plan.

One more thing to add to the pile. The Israeli government is dead set against a Palestinian state. Much of Netanyahu's strategy for decades has been to weaken the Palestinian Authority (by supporting Hamas) to break any solidarity between the Palestinians in Gaza and the Palestinians in the West Bank. They were actually very successful at this and PA President Abbas is one of the very few leaders in the region that is less popular than Netanyahu. But this too is vanishing - only instead of Israel's nightmare of the PA becoming the voice of all of Palestine, it looks like it is Hamas that's taking the role. The sympathy for Gaza is only a minor part - that Israel has stepped up it's violent terrorist activities in the West Bank, that's won it no friends. And it has unsurprisingly pushed the people of the West Bank towards Hamas. So that seems counterproductive too.

Blogging the Death Toll - Evidence of Genocide Part 18,000 and Counting

A few days ago, the IDF was saying that it had killed 5,000 Hamas fighters. This was back when the official death toll from the "Hamas-run" Gaza Ministry of Health was 15,000 - so 10,000 civilians. At the time I was mocking how their estimate was ludicrously high - in this best case scenario where the thousands still trapped under the rubble, some of them for over a month, will somehow survive. And even then, Israel is saying they have killed twice as many civilians as Hamas fighters.

Some context before we get into why this statement is further proof of Israel's intent to commit genocide.

The initial death toll from October 7th was pegged at 1,407. This was revised down to "around 1,200" because some of those killed were Hamas fighters. The current death toll of Israelis on October 7th is 1,147. I think it's reasonable to add at least three for hostages that died in the airstrikes. Yes they were killed by US bombs dropped from Israeli warplanes, but they were in Hamas custody at the time - so these deaths are Hamas' responsibility. So at least 1,150 - but less than 1,200. Of these, 300 were IDF. So the Hamas civilian to military kill ratio is 3:1. Meaning that Israel cannot concede any worse than 2:1 or they will be admitting that they target civilians more than Hamas does. To be clear - we already know that this is true, the IDF targets civilians more than Hamas does. But it would be impossible for Israel to admit this.

This is by the official numbers. We know of course that the actual death toll in Gaza is way higher than is being reported. There are more than 5,000 people under the rubble. In the initial days, I was going by scaling the UNRWA death toll - there are roughly 200 UNRWA workers for every Gazan. The UNRWA toll is now 133 - implying a Gaza death toll of around 26K and an Israeli kill ratio of over 4 civilians per Hamas fighter.

So just taking the numbers as presented - Israel does in fact target civilians over military targets more than Hamas does. A result that would be surprising to the IDF fanbois if they could be made to actually engage with it - but one that is actually sadly expected and unsurprising when you look at the scale and nature of the devastation across the Gaza Strip.

This is pretty damning. It's godawful actually. But the story is much worse. These ratios are based on Israel's estimate of 5,000 killed - which seemed impossibly high to me. And it is. 6,000 of those killed are children. In fact, the UN estimates that 2/3 of Gazans killed by Israel are women and children. That's how they got the 2:1 ratio.

IOW, here is how the IDF determines if someone they killed was a "Hamas fighter". Are they a "male and military aged"? That's is. The entirety of the question - are they male and military aged. There is no possibility for someone being male and military aged and not Hamas. Meaning that the IDF literally believes that all Gazans are Hamas. When they say they are going to "destroy Hamas" this is in fact an open call to genocide.

To be clear - quite obviously not all Gazans are Hamas. That's stupid. But it certainly appears to be what the Israelis believe - such as when President Herzog pushed back on the idea that there could be innocent Gazan civilians. He literally suggested that this was impossible and that such people did not exist. So when Israel says they are going to "destroy Hamas" you have to remember that they also believe that all Gazans are Hamas.

The Humanitarian Pause was a Bad Idea

I hinted at this a month ago.

I think it's pretty clear where I stand on war. My profile pic is so old that those museums are no longer named as indicated on the sign. So saying negative things about a deal to stop fighting - even temporarily - is very difficult for me. And a lot of good things came out of the truce - a crapton of humanitarian aid got delivered, hospitals were given an opportunity to treat their patients without hundreds more being admitted every day. For the first time in a month and a half, Gazans got the opportunity to sleep through the night without the sounds of military jets flying by or of bombs going off.

But the problem with a temporary truce is that it's temporary. I had tried to assuage my fears about the truce by believing that maybe it could be made into something more lasting - but this was naive and ignorant on my part. Driven by the fear of what would happen when the bombing started again.

What I said a month ago was that it would "break our hearts". That's all I could allow myself to concede at the time. But what I was really worried about was what this would do to the people of Gaza.

The siege had been going on for six weeks before the truce. One of the most intense bombing campaigns ever - including WW II. And Gaza can't really fight back. They have no interceptor jets. They have no anti-aircraft guns. The only method Gaza has of stopping the bombing is by dying in enough numbers that the world finally forces Israel to stop. The resilience you see in other populations under siege is one of holding out to survive through to the end of it. To make it out the other side when the people responsible for defending you have achieved their victory. Gaza doesn't have that. There are no nations or militaries defending Gaza, and many countries are trying to make it illegal for individuals to defend Gaza.

It's a different kind of resilience we see in Gaza. The Gazans know they are going to die. They know that Israel is going to kill them. This is simultaneously irrational and the right perspective. It's irrational because Israel will not be allowed to kill 2 million. Even if we double the official death toll, this works out to less than 2% of the population - as horrific as the killing has been, most Gazans will survive it. But it's also the right perspective because the killing is sudden and unpredictable. Death just rains down from the skies every day. Every day, hundreds are killed - from all parts of Gaza. The aid agencies have been telling us for weeks that "there is no safe place in Gaza". There is no precaution that Palestinians in Gaza can take to protect themselves. They just die in the hundreds every single day. And for a long time, that's how it looked like it was going to go on for an indefinite period of time.

There's a video of Younma El Sayed from last month that hammered this home for me. This is what she tells her children every day:

Don't worry, we're together. We're sticking together. If we die, we will die together.

And then the bombs stopped. For one fragile week, the bombs stopped. People were allowed to believe again - they were allowed to hope - to think they might live.

And then the week was over and the truce ended.

What does that do to people?

There's another point I have been trying to get noticed for at least a month now. The people of Gaza have resisted this attack better than anyone could possibly have hoped for. The conditions they are under are incomprehensibly bad - and yet there is no breakdown of public order. They are still banding together, rallying to dig survivors out of the rubble. To bring the wounded to where they can receive care. They are acting together in solidarity with one another despite the conditions they are subjected to.

The Director of UNRWA says that this too is now on the verge of breaking.

Before the war, Gaza was described as "an open air prison". It's completely enclosed by the sea on one side, and a heavily fortified and guarded fence on all the others. The only way in or out is with Israeli approval. And it is incredibly densely packed. Over 2 million people in a very tight area. The Wash Post had a good description:

The Gaza Strip has almost exactly the same land area as Las Vegas but more than three times the population. Its largest city, Gaza City, is more tightly packed than New York City, with more than 650,000 people living within its 18 square miles.

A lot of those people have moved into Khan Younis and Rafah. Less than half the area. And Israel is bombing there now too with greater intensity than before the truce. The conditions are ripe for rioting to break out - honestly, the conditions have been such for over a month already.

So - we're closing in on yet another "it gets worse" point. The conditions in Gaza right now are such that the relief agencies cannot function effectively and the psychic damage from the ending of the truce is eroding the solidarity and humanity of the people of Gaza. It is quite possibly going to get really bad, really soon.

Will Blogging Manage to Destroy Hamas?

Israel's stated goal in this genocide is to "destroy Hamas". Let's see how that's going.

The IDF claims to have killed 5,000 Hamas fighters. They did this while also admitting that the "Hamas run" Gaza Ministry of Health death toll is accurate and conceding that they are killing two civilians for every Hamas fighter. Firstly, as with anything the IDF says, we have to take into account that the IDF lies.  The vast majority of those killed were killed in airstrikes - which were indiscriminate in the pre-truce portion of the war, and indiscriminate now as well. No one looking at the carnage wrought by Israel  can believe that the efforts were |targeted" without lying to themselves. Secondly, we also know that the "Hamas run" Ministry of Health death count is an  undercount. Two civilians killed for every actual target is Israel's best case scenario and it is almost certainly a lot worse than that.

But even accepting it as "only" 2:1, this is horrific. Try to imagine if this were anything else - "we stopped the murderer but had to kill a pair of innocent people to do it". This actually paints Israel in a much better light than the actual situation. The October 7 attack killed fewer than a tenth of what Israel has inflicted on Gaza.

What does this have to do with Hamas' strength? It's the outrage at Israel which fuels Hamas. The death toll, the absolute destruction of entire towns and large fractions of cities - this creates the animosity and desire for vengeance that results in more Hamas fighters. Will Hamas be able to replace the lost 5,000 (and again - it is almost certainly a lot less than that)? Easily. 

That's in Gaza. What about the West Bank, where Israel is stealing land and disappearing thousands of Palestinians into "administrative detention"? Where released prisoners have been telling their stories of the torture they endured in Israeli jails. Pretty sure that Hamas' standing in the West Bank has improved and the feelings towards Israel - a state imposing apartheid rules on them - have actually gotten worse.

So quite clearly - Hamas is in a stronger position than they were on October 6. They will be able to recruit new fighters to replace their losses. And their stated goal of eradicating the state of Israel has more support than ever before.

But maybe Israel is still somehow safer despite Hamas gaining support? The loss of 5,000 fighters (lol) must have at least reduced Hamas' current capabilities. Right? No, it hasn't. Before the truce was signed, Hamas fired one of their largest volleys of rockets into Israel (they say as retaliation for the IDF raids on hospitals). And after the truce ended, Hamas fired rockets into Israel - setting off alarms in settlements further north than they have ever reached before.

Moreover, the IDF still does not have control of northern Gaza. Some of those rockets were fired from areas the IDF had already rolled through. Rockets were launched from Gaza City despite the pounding it has received in the past two months. So all evidence says that Hamas has not been slowed down or hampered by its losses.

So "destroying Hamas" as a goal - seems pretty much completely out of Israel's ability. On the plus side for Israel though, this is the better outcome for them. If they did manage to "destroy Hamas" through just massive bombing and psychotic levels of collateral damage - the anger towards Israel would be immense and completely unguided. In the power vacuum to follow - someone will harness that rage and create a new group sedeking revenge against Israel. Like when the US spent twenty years and some trillion dollars trying to dismantle Al Qaeda and as a result created an opening for ISIS to rise to prominence.

The final piece of why this whole thing is so stupid - the attack of October 7th was only as successful as it was because Israel's response to it was farcically bad. We may never know how many Israelis were killed by IDF "friendly fire" that day - but it's starting to look more and more like it is a lot. And this is despite the fact that Israel should have known the attack was coming. Israel had copies of the actual Hamas battle plan for that day - a plan which Hamas basically followed exactly. They knew that Hamas had been doing dry runs in the months before the attack. Again, referencing the battle plan that Israel had copies of. They even should have been able to guess the time of the attack - on the 50th anniversary of the attack which kicked off the Yom Kippur War. It's frankly mind blowing how badly Israeli intelligence failed here. The terrorist attack of October 7 - it wasn't prevented despite Israel knowing that it was coming and having over a year to thwart it. In fact, Israel's actions in that time was to shift forces away from Gaza and to the West Bank. They made themselves less capable of responding to it.

This is really the only hope that Israel has of emerging "safer" from all of this. If at least they fixed their intelligence agencies and their military decision making. If they eradicate whatever it was in their decision making levels that resulted in such bone-headed mistakes as this was.

They haven't. The attack of October 7 was as bad as it was (and it was indeed horrific with hundreds of civilians killed and hundreds more violently kidnapped) - because the guys running Israeli defense and intelligence had decided that Gaza was "under control" and then ignored everything that contradicted that opinion. They ignored reality so that they could continue believing that their theory was solid and that they are never wrong. Those guys are still in charge. And the actual plan that Israel is going with - of mass destruction and killing in the hopes that maybe you get some bad guys too, they have doubled down on. Here's the fucking staggering thing - even though October 7th happened, <b>those stupid fuckers still think they are right</b>.

They Ran, They Ran So Far - Holy Crap

 I don't follow ultra-running very closely - there's really only one race that catches my attention, and I usually end up looking at the results only weeks after it finished. That race is Big Dog's Backyard Ultra which is run in October - and holy crap, what the actual fuck?

So this race is different than your normal race. It's not a fixed distance, it's an endurance race. But it's not a fixed time either. It's a fixed speed- a single loop that's a bit more than 4 miles long - and you get an hour to finish it. Sounds pretty easy, and everyone who starts it finishes that lap no problem.

Here's the catch - it's an endurance race. You have to do it again in the next hour. And you keep doing it until you stop. The person who completes the last loop in under an hour (technically - you just got to be in the starting corral for the next loop at the start of the hour) - that person "wins". There's no finish line - it's an open ended endurance race, where you keep running until no one else can run with you anymore. It's about pushing the limits of human endurance in a sick and demented fashion.

About seven years ago, there was this shift in ultrarunning. The previous record was 49 loops - 204-ish miles. Two runners quit after completing the first lap of the third day. Just crazy. Imagine going 49 hours straight where you get woken every hour on the hour - that's hard enough on it's own without having to push out four miles between every wake-up call. For two full days. Crazy.

Then in 2017 someone ran 59 hours. And then 68 hours the year after. And in 2021, Harvey Lewis broke into Day 4 by completing loop number 85. Over 350 miles. Three and a half days of running over four miles in each and every hour. It stopped making sense to me before it got to this point - but the maniacs kept running.

Harvey Lewis' wining distance this year was 108. 108 loops. 450 miles. Four and a half days. Just get up at the top of the hour and run four and a bit miles, and then do it again - 107 more times.

Also too - the winner is the person who is the only one to complete the last loop. Meaning that someone ran 107 loops to come in second (they call it the "assist"). This year, the person who came in third did 103 loops. 429 miles of running and finishing third.

I don't really have a point here. As I mentioned earlier - it stopped making sense to me when they were running a hundred miles less.  I guess I just find it really interesting.

Intelligence Failure

I've seen a new theory of why the Israeli Intelligence community got everything so unbelievably wrong. It's actually pretty convincing, and if it's right then the prospects for Israel's plan to "destroy Hamas" are even worse than they look when you assume that the entire Israeli War Machine is just a pile of stupid fucking morons that couldn't tell their asses from their elbows even with Post-it notes on their arms saying "not here".

Anyways, let's consider the facts (as we know them) that need to be explained.

1. Israel Intelligence got a hold of the Hamas battle plan in 2022. This is described as a 40-page document which describes how Hamas was going to attack Israel and the basic strategy described is exactly what Hamas did on October 7. So Israel had a hold of Hamas' actual playbook.

2. The battle plan apparently contained sensitive Israeli military information. It's sounds like it's information along the lines of the locations and strength of the Israeli defenses along the Gaza fence.

3. The Israeli intelligence community dismissed this as being "aspirational". That there's no way that Hamas could pull of the attack as planned. Note that this is the assessment despite the plan containing Israeli military secrets.

4. Israel absolutely acted like they thought the battle plan was a joke. Even after watching Hamas fighters do a day long dry run training session. During this period they continued to relocate military forceds away from the Gaza fence and to the West Bank to support the terrorist campaign being conducted by Israeli settlers.

Okay, now some other facts (as we know them) 

5. Some fraction of Hamas is known to Israel and those members are under constant and extreme surveillance. And have been surveilled for a long time.

6. The October 7 attack was aa big and complex project - at least a year in planning and engaging hundreds of terrorist gunmen and whatever supports those guys needed to do their mass murder.

7. I mean, Israel had a copy of the actual battle plan. This was a big enough terror project and the surveillance of Hamas was intensive enough that Israel literally had a copy of the plan a year in advance. And also, Hamas could reasonably expected that this would be the case.

Okay - here's the theory. Israel didn't fuck up because they are stupid chuckleheads with the brainpower of a wet fart. The theory is that Israel got played. Hamas, knowing that they were under surveillance, acted in such a way to make the Israeli intelligence community go 100% groupthink on a bunch of carefully cultivated ideas. Hamas used Israeli surveillance to make Israel think that Hamas was both incapable of this type of attack and also that they didn't really want to attack either. And then Hamas used this cover to prepare and train for it, knowing that Israel was going to act like the battle plan was fake regardless of what evidence they saw to the contrary.

There's some things about this that seem sketchy. If Hamas knew that Israel was going to get access to the battle plan, why did they put the sensitive military information in there? This endangers their sources and it should have been a huge red flag for Israel that they were grossly underestimating Hamas' capabilities. This was a risk of blowing up the whole plan and they could have avoided that just by leaving the info out of the plan. Still, that's the biggest flaw I see in it. Otherwise, it explains everything perfectly.

As low an opinion as I have of the IDF, it's not credible to believe that literally everyone in it is a stupid idiot. There stories about the Intelligence Failure centre one Unit 8200 analyst who correctly determined that Hamas was way more capable than they were assessed at. But even that analyst was swayed by the argument that "Hamas doesn't want a war". This is after knowing that they were doing dry runs.

The description of what happened are that they knew the attack was being planned and practiced - but they didn't think Hamas was going to go through with it. And they believed this so hard that despite the consequences of being wrong, they acted like Gaza was never going to cause any trouble ever again. Something must have made them thing this - and it makes sense for Hamas to try to bluff out Israel this way.

But what does that mean going forward? It's super-bad. If this theory is correct, it means that Hamas is capable of fooling the Israeli intelligence community (and the US one for that matter) like virtuoso masters. Of playing them like a fiddle. And the Israeli intelligence community is in full on cover your ass mode - and the Israeli government is deeply vested in not criticizing their spies. So it's hard to see how this changes.

And Nothing but the Truce

Ten minutes. That's how much time was left on the truce before it was extended (into Friday). Ten minutes.

Going into this, the last word from Israel was that they were ready to restart the war machine, but even more aggressively this time. That in response to Biden saying that what happened in northern Gaza could not happen in the south, Netanyahu said that bombing the south was "necessary". It did not look like a second extension was going to happen.

But it did, and I have to believe that Antony Blinken landing in Israel a few short hours before the deadline made the difference. So kudos to the Biden team - for adjusting position and finally putting limits on what is acceptable, and then forcing it by sending the Secretary of State to visit at the critical juncture.

That said - the truce only lasts until Friday. The hostages for prisoners agreement that has been reached is only for women and children, and this batch is the last of Hamas' hostages in that category. And there seem to be irreconcilable differences in where the two sides have staked their positions. With just the one day to finalize things, it's hard to see how this truce gets extended into the weekend. UNLESS - unless, there is enough pressure for Israel to hold off on mass slaughter without hostages being released.

Israel's position on this has already been taken apart. Their argument that the ONLY possible way towards peace is the complete and utter destruction of Hamas has just been proven to be pure bullshit. Hostages were returned via negotiation and a cessation of bombing. Israelis got their loved ones back only after Israel stopped dropping bombs - because Israel sat down at the negotiation table. That was productive - the previous seven weeks of indiscriminate bombing and raiding hospitals? All that produced was global resentment towards Israel and the US. And tens of thousands of Gazan casualties.

It does bring me some hope to see the US moving on this. Even if it is long overdue. They were working on a deal that ended up looking exactly like the truce we got at the end of October! So it is weeks overdue. 10,000 deaths overdue. Being late here as Biden was - morally reprehensible. Disgusting. But even though that is true, it is still better late than never. There are still people trying to survive in horrific conditions and anything that prevents them from being bombed even more is good.

Which brings us to the next critical juncture. These truce extensions have been kicking the can down the road. And now that we've reached the point where there is no longer an agreement on the hostage exchange, we've run out of road. It's now finally clear that Biden wants the war to stop - and it is also equally clear that Israel finds the very notion of this to be unacceptable and deeply antisemitic. Yes, Israel's position on this is that not allowing them to bomb tens of thousands more Palestinians to death is the same as hating Jews. So we are running the test. We are going to see if the US does have influence over Israel. And if they don't - we will see if Joe has the appetite to do anything about it.

From the River to the Sea, Palestine has a Right to Defend Itself

There's a dynamic that is so pervasive that even when we are looking for it, wee still miss it a lot. What I'm talking about is how only certain groups are expected to exhibit empathy and other groups are always expected to be the benefactors. We're usually aware of it on the left-right spectrum, where latte sipping coastal elites are constantly chided for not considering the feelings of "Real Americans" in the flyover country of the Heartland. Really? The primary feeling of those "Real Americans" is sheer and utter contempt for the coastal elites - and yet we never see admonitions to rural voters to think about how the SJWs might see things.

I want to note an article about the phrase "from the river to the sea". Let me point out that the author, a political science professor at a Canadian university, isn't denying reality. This article is way less pure bullshit than the usual tripe we get fed from major media. Here's a quote - using active voice and attributing actions to those responsible. For example:

The trouble is, in Israel-Palestine it’s Israeli Jews who hold the lion’s share of the power. Between the river and the sea, which is to say to varying degrees in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel within the Green Line, it’s Palestinians, not Jews (Jewish Israelis), who are structurally oppressed, mainly by Israel (I say mainly because Hamas’s and the PA’s authoritarian rule limits Palestinian freedoms to some extent).

Yes, there's an unnecessary qualification there - almost as if any criticism of Israel must come with the requisite condemnation of Hamas. But it's an accurate statement - all of the groups mentioned have treated Palestinians very badly - but it is mainly Israel that does the bulk of it. I dare say that the mandatory Hamas condemning actually reinforces the point - which is almost never allowed to be spoken - that even relative to the autocratic rule of a terrorist group, Israel treatment of Palestinians is still worse.

Anyways - here again is the argument. It's framed as "intent versus impact" but what it actually is - it's a lecture to supporters of a Free Palestine to consider the feelings of Jews. 

There's something else I need to get out of the way before getting to my point. The other arguments in support of "From the River to the Sea" are strong ones. Professor Sucharov notes the biggest one in her article - context. The context of the situation in Israel-Palestine really do highlight how bonkers it is. The context is that Palestinians between the river and the sea are in fact not free - and they are being told that asking for basic human dignity is offensive to the people who are denying it to them. This alone should settle the argument handily. It's the "every accusation is a confession" crux of the situation. The people who see "from the River to the Sea" as calling for genocide are projecting - they think it means genocide because Israel is committing genocide from the River to the Sea. It means that to them because they are doing it. And this point is often bolstered by noting that it is not only Hamas that has "from the river to the sea" in its charter, but also Likud, the default ruling party of Israel, does as well (the main difference is that it's of course not calling for Palestinian freedom - but for Israeli sovereignty instead).

Also an important point here is to call out Genocide Joe's pure fucking bullshit "two state solution" talk. Hey Genocide Joe - the government of Israel is adamantly opposed to a Palestinian state. Netanyahu is on record explaining why he funds Hamas - specifically to marginalize the PA and sabotage any attempt to establish a Palestinian state. And he's the moderate in his government - with the other unity government party being an extremist far-right proponent of settler terrorism.

Okay, that out of the way - let me get back to my point. Let's agree that it is worthwhile to consider impacts over intent. I mean, actual real world impacts are important, aren't they? Jewish people are also people and they have feelings that shouldn't be ignored. In the words of a deeply antisemitic play - if you cut them, do they not bleed? Sure, the feelings they have are irrational and in fact actually quite offensive if you consider the context. But that actually is understandable - antisemitism is a very real threat. Jews have good reason to be on constant high alert for threats of genocide. So even though their position now is gross and disgusting, it is also very understandable.

BUT - here we see it again. Empathy is ALWAYS a one way street. Pro-Palestinian activists are being forced to consider the feelings of others, especially the people they are protesting against. The people currently engaged in genocide and their supporters around the world. And it is NEVER the other way around.

Here's a statement that's almost as mandatory as the condemnation of Hamas. "Israel has a right to defend itself." It's a statement that's hard to refute if you ignore context. Self-defense should always be acceptable, shouldn't it? But look at what's going on in Gaza. That is not self-defense. It so clearly isn't that again, we are into the range of offensive statements when people suggest it. A few weeks ago, the IDF bombed a refugee camp, killing a couple hundred people. They knew those people were there. But they suspected that one of those people might have been a Hamas commander. How can anyone call that "self-defense"?

So what is the impact of invoking Israel's right to self-defense? It's being used as an excuse for genocide. It's pretty fucking reasonable for Palestinians and their supporters to see this statement as a call to wipe out all Palestinians. It's way more rational a connection than the spurious claims of "from the River to the Sea" are. So when do we start seeing this? When do people start getting lectured or even fired from their jobs for asserting that Israel has a right to defend itself?

Never. It will never happen. Because having to consider "impact over intent" is something that only one side has to do.

Gotta Give Credit to Genocide Joe

There's a contingent of folks out there who are pissed that Genovide Joe is not being given credit for brokering the humanitarian pause deal. And this is true - the US is absolutely not getting credit for anything except from RAH RAH USA #1 people. But you know what? This is actually better treatment than Biden deserves.

What did the US do here? Other than unconditionally support Israel in all of its depravities? Consider the following story about the negotiations for a hostage deal. There were talks where Hamas would agree to release 50 hostages - the same deal that we got. The one hang up that Israel would not allow? Fuel and humanitarian aid into northern Gaza. An item they gave up on in the actual deal that was made - and then did not honor, resulting in the delay in hostage release on Day 2. Did you note the date on that article? October 24.

Four fucking weeks. Biden's genocide supporting asswipes stalled and delayed a truce for four weels and managed to get sweet fuck all out of it. IOW - all they did was allow Israel more time to slaughter Palestinians. The actual efforts by Genocide Joe's team in securing this truce was in delaying it so that Israel could genocide longer.

It's part of the pattern. UN Security Council Resolution 2712 was passed on November 15. Here is the text of that resolution: http://www.undocs.org/en/S/RES/2712(2023)

On October 25, three weeks earlier, the US vetoed the Brazilian drafted resolution. The text of which is here: https://undocs.org/en/S/2023/773

Did you notice the difference? Well the resolution that the US vetoed had a condemnation of the Hamas attack of October 7.  The resolution they were forced to take did not. And what did they get out of making that concession?  Three weeks of bombing that wasn't in contravention  of the Security Council. All they got was a longer period of bombing that wasn't expressly condemned by the UNSC.

Because that's where we are at. The role of the US is to give Israel cover while Palestinians are mass slaughtered. The "negotiations" were just a stalling tactic to hold off global condemnation of Israel's continued campaign of genocide.

But here is the good news (fingers crossed and knocking on wood) - the pressure which forced the US and Israel to accept the truce are still very strong. Obviously the "truce" was so insufficient that Gaza is still in a state of humanitarian disaster. Did the needle move at all? Maybe - Gazans have now had three nights in a row where they could be moderately sure they weren't going to die in an airstrike. Some Palestinians may have had t heir first few nights of sleep in seven weeks. Word is now that an additional two days is being forced on Israel, although they are resisting this tooth and nail. We'll see how this goes.

Blogging Never Changes Part Ten - Pause Abilities

They managed to negotiate and implement a "pause". And while the cessation of hostilities, even if only temporary, is better than not having that - I want to remind us about what I thought about this when it first starting looking like a possibility.

So that's the future then. We're possibly getting a break in hostilities - long enough for more reporting about the conditions in Gaza to get out. We'll see how dire the situation is. And then we will be told to support a return to bombing. And the brain geniuses running this show will support the return to bombing.

They are going to break our hearts and then let us know that it is time for more. It's like scuttling the landing boats before advancing. There's a remote possibility that the outrage of starting the bombs again might make them think twice. This is my hope - that the public will demand a stop to the war. But sadly, the fucking ghoulish monsters in charge are the stupidest fucking morons. As I have been saying for a month now, while I wish with all my heart that I am wrong - it's going to get worse, and stay worse for a long time.

I still think that the return to violence is going to be the worst part of it all. The psychological damage is going to be immense. That said, let me admit my errors here and try to correct them now that I know better.

I had thought that the pause would allow media to bring us more stories about how bad things are. It did. The images coming out of Al Shifa are terrible. But, this is not changing anyone's mind. The stories we were getting from before the pause were also bad enough that we did have a good idea of how terrible things were. OTOH, the only international reporters in Gaza were embedded with the IDF - maybe the pause opened up these stories to more audiences - exposing more people to the truth of the suffering Israel is inflicting upon 2 million people. Lol. I guess I still am naive and innocent. This clearly did not happen - the lack of honest and fair reporting from the mainstream media of the conditions in Gaza was not due to lack of reporters on the ground. It is a choice made by the people running those media firms. The only movement that I am aware of in how this was getting covered is the NY Times piece comparing the Gaza death rate to other conflicts. So my bad. Mea culpa. I got that wrong.

Speaking of naive and innocent - here's the other part I got wrong. That the bombing would start again. And no, this isn't just me trying to manifest a ceasefire. The pause isn't over yet, and there are some reports of the truce being extended - but that is not what I was referring to. I was talking about the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. The bombing has not stopped.

Which finally brings me to the point of this post. Israel is still doing their level best to confirm many of the worst beliefs about them. I really cannot make it more clear than this:

My instructions are clear: there are to be no expressions of joy

Also, so that we have some context here - sometimes the released Palestinian prisoners are 85% minors. This in addition to the increased aggression at the West Bank and towards the neighbouring states. Also, Israel is already trying to implement checkpoints in Gaza, collecting data and shooting people (because that's what humanitarian pauses are supposed to look like I guess?). It's a testament to how horrific the war campaign was that shooting at civilians trying to return to their homes is considered as being consistent with a "truce".

On the other side, Hamas delayed the release of some prisoners by several hours, claiming that Israel was not abiding by the conditions by refusing passage of aid trucks to the north. Which was the case, but apparently was "technical in nature" - which allowed the exchange to go off as normal. Under the deal, 50 hostages were supposed to be released in the four day span. They released 24 hostages on Day 1. Day 2 was the delayed release and consisted of 17 hostages. The third batch was another group of 17. That's 48 58 (/edit). Reports from Israel are that the hostages are in "good" shape. There have been no tales of torture or mistreatment. OTOH, you can probably guess how Israel treats Palestinian prisoners. And it would be beyond surprising if their treatment improved after October 7.

To be clear - Hamas is still a terrorist organization. They should not be given "credit" for meeting the bare minimum standards or care for hostages - innocent hostages that they kidnapped during a terrorist attack that killed hundreds. Hamas is not the good guys here. BUT - and this is the point that the world seems intent on ignoring - the government of Israel has failed to meet this standard.

So that's where we're headed - one side making best efforts to meet the conditions of the temporary truce, and the other side - not that. And then the truce runs out - and Israel will have no excuse to resume bombing. Hamas will have held up their end of the bargain - even though it is clear that Israel has not. The pressure to extend the truce has got to be enormous now - so great that I'm starting to wonder if it will get pushed into something more permanent. But that's probably just me being naive and innocent again.

Blogging Never Changes Part Nine - Hospitals Are Legitimate Targets

Just a bit of a timeline.

October 7 - Hamas conducts a horrific terrorist attack on Israel. Israel so badly fumbles the response that the extent of the destruction is enormous. ~1,200 Israelis killed - mostly by Hamas, but certainly some by trigger happy IDF goons and Apache helicopter pilots. ~200 Hamas gunmen killed - these will bolster the official Israeli death count for a month, with no questions asked. Some will still cite 1400 as the Israeli death toll from October 7. Also do note - the deaths on October 7 were because Hamas killed people (even though clearly, so did the IDF) - but any deaths in Gaza that happened after that, well they just happened. No attributable cause  - air strikes apparently are an unpreventable Act of Nature.

Early October:

Israel warns hospitals in northern Gaza, including Al Ahli, to evacuate.

Israel hits Al Ahli hospital with shells.

October 17 - a fiery explosion in the courtyard of Al Ahli hospital kills hundreds. The Gaza Health Ministry claims at least 500 dead but later revises this down to 471 identified corpses. The IDF denies that they bombed the site as they claim they were not bombing anything anywhere near Al Ahli - and then blames it on a misfiring Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket.

October 18 - in the light of the morning, it is clear that the destruction of the hospital courtyard was not caused by one of the IDF's larger JDAM missiles. The crater is too small and the damage is inconsistent with what should result from a thousand pounds of conventional high explosives going off in the area. That said, the IDF has a very wide range of munitions.

Late October:

Video evidence is cited showing a rocket barrage being launched towards Israel and one rocket spiraling out of control a few seconds before the hospital explosion goes off. There is only the primary hospital explosion - no secondary explosions as would be expected if the damage was caused by munitions stored at the hospital. The IDF releases an obviously fake tape of intercepted communications where Hamas agents say that Israel is great and they are evil and also that they were responsible for the hospital explosion. The US and Biden explicitly endorses this "anything bad could not have been done by Israel" theory. Multiple media outlets like CNN also endorse it. None of the parties supporting this view provide any evidence other than what has been described. No analysis is shown either. Neither the IDF nor the US agree to any independent investigation of the incident, saying that it would not be appropriate.

The NYTimes Visual Investigations Team analyzes the out-of-control rocket video and four other related videos. They conclude that the out-of-control rocket was launched from inside Israel and provide the details of their analysis. They also conclude that this rocket could not have caused the hospital explosion unless it was travelling at ludicrously high speeds even for a rocket. They also note that you can see two other explosions near the hospital in the lead up to the deadly explosion including before the rocket barrage is launched - almost as if the active airstrike campaign was in fact servicing targets near the hospital.

The IDF releases an animation showing underground rooms and a network of tunnels they claim is beneath Al Shifa hospital. Al Shifa has been an obsession of the IDF for years - they are positive beyond all reason that Hamas is using a vast underground network as a command and control centre and that this is where the hostages are being kept.

More evacuation notices are delivered to hospitals again.

November thus far: 

Al Rantisi hospital is raided by the IDF. This is a children's hospital which has multiple premature babies on incubators. They find zero hostages and zero Hamas fighters - but they do find an improvised hastily built underground shelter. Since Israeli bombs cannot hurt anyone but Hamas, obviously this shelter could only have been used to hold hostages. There could be no other explanation why a territory undergoing the most aggressive bombing campaign in decades could possibly build shelters underground other than to hold hostages.

They also find a calendar. A Hamas calendar with the names of the Hamas terrorist guards that were watching over the hostages, These guards are named things like "Monday" and "Saturday".

The IDF posts and then deletes a tweet where they explicitly state that hospitals and ambulances are legitimate targets. Note that the reasoning used in this tweet "they are used by Hamas, we don't have to show you any evidence of it because it is so obviously true" is one that IDF spokesmen have been repeating for weeks.

The IDF begins operations to raid Al Shifa. The Israeli government's official Twitter posts a video from "an Al Shifa nurse" claiming that the hospital is overrun with Hamas that are constantly stealing all the hospital supplies. People actually in Al Shifa hospital all say they do not recognize this nurse - and no wonder, she is later revealed to be an Israeli actress originally from Mexico. The Israeli government deletes their post with the video.

The IDF raids Al Shifa. There is zero armed resistance from within the hospital - the Hamas command and control centre has zero armed guards. No underground command and control structures are found. No hostages are found. No Hamas fighters are found. The IDF delivers "medical supplies" to Al Shifa shortly before they release a video showing that there was "a lot" of military hardware at Al Shifa. Multiple grab bags with live grenades and assault rifles are stashed behind MRI machines. Yes, this is insane - MRI machines have immensely powerful electromagnets inside them - so stashing the grab bag here renders the MRI machine unusable. Alternately, someone lazily planting evidence might have just picked that spot because it was convenient.  In one of the shots of these grab bags, a box almost identical to the "medical supplies" boxes can be seen in the background. A few hours later when the embedded BBC reporters are toured around the facility, the grab bag behind the MRI machine mysteriously has different gear in it. This IDF video introduces a new meme to the world - Hamas dates. Apparently among the evil terrorist contraband at Al Shifa is a box of dates.

After holding Al Shifa for over a week, the IDF find a tunnel.  55 metres long - but apparently not actually going anywhere. With zero Hamas fighters or hostages inside. Also, no one is allowed to go inside of it.

Former Israeli PM Ehud Omert says that the actual command and control centre for Hamas is in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, where Israel has been telling Gazan internally displaced people to move to.

Israel tells people in Khan Younis, especially those at hospitals, to evacuate.

Indonesian Hospital (which is in northern Gaza and where Emily Callahan was volunteering for MSF) is surrounded by tanks. Airstrikes in southern Gaza intensify. The IDF raids Ibn Sina hospital in the West Bank.

The Landslide Brought Me Down

Time for a break from doom and war. I can post about things other than doom and war - just because I haven't for almost a decade doesn't mean I can't.

I'm a pretty basic guy. Landslide is my favourite Fleetwood Mac song. It's catchy, it's fun - and everyone loves to sing along with "in the SNOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooow ... covered ... hiiIIIIIiiiIILs". It's a great song. So I kinda expected that there would be some awesome covers of it. Sure Stevie Nicks is a force of nature with a unique voice that owns the songs she sings, but covers aren't about pretending that you're the original artist. They are about making the song your own. So I set about finding covers of Landslide.

They all sucked. Every single one of them I listened to. Just garbage. No, that's too harsh  - some of them were not painful to listen to. The Dixie Chicks version is solidly "meh". And a lot of those musicians were clearly talented and they knew what they were doing and many of them knew who they were as artists - but nothing could hold a candle to the original. Just an endless stream of one failed cover after then next.

Until I discovered the existence of Ashley Slim Stevenson. And. Holy. Fucking. Shit. That song about strumming my face with his fingers? I finally understand. This artist sang through me like tornadoes go through a trailer park.

So I ended up binging her YouTube channel and just about everything on it is out-of-the-park monster performances. Here's a seasonal one:

I bought her album. It's good and you should get it. Anyways, like a junkie, I trolled the internet for more. She's a subway busker, so of course there's more - great songs punctuated by trains arriving in the station. There's a few other things as well - this is the earliest thing I found:

A List of Antisemitic Terrorists and Sympathizers

1. The media
2. The UNRWA
3. Jewish student groups on college campuses
4. Jews that criticize Israel
5. Labour Unions
6. Literally, every Palestinian in Gaza (don't call what Israel is doing "genocide" - you need proof of intent for that)
7. Calendars EDIT - not just Calendars in general, but also dates /EDIT

Blogging Never Changes - Part Eight - It's Worse

For over a month I have been saying that things are goin g to get worse and then stay worse for a long time. Well, I think we're there. This is it - this is the "worse" I have been dreading. Not to give any false hope about this being as bad as it gets - it's going to get more bad than this for sure. But this is the "worse" conditions I feared.

No hospitals are operational in Gaza right now. None. They are all shut down.

The UNRWA has less than 48 hours of fuel themselves, so after that point in time, there will be essentially no one co-ordinating the distribution of the meagre relief supplies.

The IDF has boots on the ground. The land invasion has completely encircled Gaza City and also controls a swath of Gaza across the middle, separating the north from the south.

Bombs are in fact still dropping from the sky in incredible numbers. They have now been joined by tank and artillery shells as well as machine gun fire.

Food and water are incredibly scarce. The trickle of aid trucks - even if they were full to the brim with water - would be grossly inadequate to meet the needs. Dehydration must be rampant across the entire enclave.

Sanitation has fallen apart. There is no functional sewer system. Gaza was crowded before, and now they have been confined to much smaller and more crowded spaces. And infectious diseases are now spreading rampantly. And both the Health Ministry and the UNRWA have been crippled and will be unable to provide public health services at all.

Israel has shown zero indications that they are even close to being finished. Weeks of cajoling, including from Biden and Blinken resulted in four hour "humanitarian pauses" - which appears to be the exact same as what Israel was already doing - designating a four hour period for people to use to flee the north. Also consistent with Israel's action s on that four hour window - people following those instructions have still been shot dead. Which is why no one has noticed that these "humanitarian pauses" are supposed to be in place. Because they are completely meaningless, and that is as much as Israel is willing to concede.

And on top of it all - the collapse of Health Ministry services means that the death toll won't be updated meaningfully. So we won't see the impact of this for a while. The death toll was a severe undercount before - now it's just not meaningful at all.  The number injured in Gaza before everything shutdown was around 25K. It's possible some of these people will survive without hospital care even under the nightmarish conditions they are living under. I have no clue how much longer that Joe Biden will continue in his assistance and unwavering support of genocide. But even if Biden changes tune now, there is still a massive amount of death that will happen. Frankly, it will be a miracle if the final count at the end of it all is under 50,000. And it will of course be a lot higher than even that if the West allows Netanyahu to deliver on his promised long and drawn out war.

Where Does Blogging Go From Here Part Three - When You Stare Into the Abyss

There's noise about a temporary pause in exchange for hostages. Something like a three day pause is being discussed. While this will save a lot of lives in the short term - I don't know if it's a good idea.

What is going to happen in three days? It's not going to stop being a humanitarian disaster with three days respite from the bombs. BUT what will happen is that we'll get more stories out of Gaza. The tragedy and loss and suffering will be documented and those stories will make the rounds. The curtain will begin to be pulled back from the sheer scope and scale of this disaster.

And then - three days is up. And Israel will begin bombing again. Of course they will - the government of Israel has shown that it is deeply committed to the genocidal plan. But this will only be possible with continued support from the US and the Western states.

So that's the future then. We're possibly getting a break in hostilities - long enough for more reporting about the conditions in Gaza to get out. We'll see how dire the situation is. And then we will be told to support a return to bombing. And the brain geniuses running this show will support the return to bombing.

They are going to break our hearts and then let us know that it is time for more. It's like scuttling the landing boats before advancing. There's a remote possibility that the outrage of starting the bombs again might make them think twice. This is my hope - that the public will demand a stop to the war. But sadly, the fucking ghoulish monsters in charge are the stupidest fucking morons. As I have been saying for a month now, while I wish with all my heart that I am wrong - it's going to get worse, and stay worse for a long time.

Victims and Villains

 Since the beginning of this thing, there have been only two acceptable lenses to view Palestinians. Either they are victims in all of this or they are part of Hamas and therefore villains. Thousands of children dead - victims. The monsters that carried out the October 7th attacks - villains. That's it. There is no other option.

That's not what we see in the video and images coming out of Gaza. The thing which made me realize this framing was Biden dismissing the Gaza Health Ministry as a bunch of liars. They are villains because they are "Hamas controlled". Maybe some progressives can see them as victims for being thrust into this situation. But they are neither. They are people who find themselves facing worse conditions than we can even imagine and doing their best to meet it. When those people aren't Palestinians, we call them heroes. Is that controversial? That the Palestinian health care workers struggling to save lives in Gaza's hospitals this past month are heroes? But it's not just the doctors and nurse and medics. People trying to dig survivors out of the rubble with their hands. Running through the streets to transport the wounded because there is no fuel for ambulances. We see people under a vicious siege, with modern military might brought to bear on a population that is majority refugees - and still they rally together to support each other. There's little other option for them. Journalists who have lost their families and friends, and a disgustingly large number of colleagues - they still go out every day to report, to bring us the stories - so the rest of us can bear witness to the tragedy as it unfolds. The conditions right now are such that merely saying the word is considered antisemitic and support for terrorism. Despite the countless words I've spewed about this, I have yet to use it myself. But how else can this be described? The resilience, the defiance, the continued effort at going on in the face of overwhelming disaster - this is resistance. What else can we call the response to an occupying state committing the war of aggression. It is resistance. The Gazans aren't just victims or villains here - they are resisting the aggression of an apartheid state. They are resisting the violence of the force occupying their lands. The world did not begin existing on October 7th - nor did history stop that same day. Things happened before that attack and things continued to happen after it. And they are still happening now. But the stories we get in the West are still stories of victims and villains - when it is clear to anyone willing to look that this is a story of resistance.

Where Does Blogging Go From Here? Part Two - Don't Ceasefire Until You See the Whites of Their Eyes

We outlined what the demand was in Part One. Ceasefire, humanitarian aid, and a hostages for prisoners "All for All" swap. I also noted that this is what the demand has been for two weeks - possibly longer. So what will it take to get to a ceasefire? Well, two sides need to agree for an agreement to happen - and the terms outlined here are basically the terms that Hamas wants exactly. So the impediment is Israel. Maybe you think this is unfair - I've outlined the Hamas position and said that's what should be in the ceasefire. What about he Israeli position? This is the Israeli position:

• Hamas is utterly destroyed.
• All hostages released. 
• No prisoners are released except to the sweet embrace of death.
• Gaza is depopulated and converted into a demilitarized buffer zone protecting Israel from the Sinai peninsula where all the remaining Gazans will be forced to relocate.

The crazy first requirement of Hamas being destroyed doesn't even make any sense. Hamas leadership is not in Gaza  - they are in many cities around the world. The military wing of the Al Qassam Brigades has secret leadership - so eliminating them is basically impossible. It operates sort of as a federation of independent cells. Worse still - even if by magic they managed to get "all of Hamas leadership" (whatever that means) targeted and neutralized - new leaders will step up and replace them. Really all they need is a connection with a funding source like Iran - and the ability to recruit fanatics - made a lot easier by Israel committing genocide. But that (even though it is impossible), along with securing the hostage release, are Israel's primary goals.

This is just one of many reasons I believe there will not be a ceasefire agreement in two weeks (although again - I really do wish that I am dead wrong about this). Israel has set unobtainable goals. Their demands cannot be met and certainly not in the manner in which they are pursuing it. Accepting a ceasefire would be a massive stepdown. Netanyahu framed it this way himself - claiming that accepting a ceasefire is the same thing as surrender. As stupid as that sounds - who is Israel surrendering to? - it is essentially correct. Israel isn't really fighting Hamas - this campaign of violence is absolutely not weakening Hamas at all. Hamas leadership is safe in other countries, Hamas funding is probably at all-time highs given global sentiment on the situation. Israel is fighting global opinion - they are trying to do as much genocide as they can before they world cuts them off by forcing a ceasefire.

And that forcing will have to come from US pressure - and that US pressure will only come from public pressure - which the US is all too often happy to ignore. Consider universal background checks - a gun control measure with something like 90% public support, and an issue that comes up after every major mass shooting - so pretty frequently. This is still not a law. So public pressure - while necessary - is going to have to be overwhelming in order to have any effect.

Currently, it is only a tiny handful of electeds have voiced support for a ceasefire - instead there is overwhelming support for MOAR BOMBS. The amount of shifting that has to occur just to get Democrats on side with a ceasefire is massive. So it's going to take time. And lives. Lots of them.

That said, there are some more points to consider. Right now, there's a massive amount of pussy-footing around "humanitarian pauses" instead of a ceasefire. But consider what the difference is. The scope and scale of destruction in Gaza means that no mere "pause" will be enough to stave off massive disaster. The feared disease outbreak in the overcrowded hospitals with no clean water or sanitation are starting to appear. Searching the rubble for survivors is such a massive task that it will take as long as people can con themselves into believing that someone is still holding out. Given a break in the aggression, Gaza will be able to take stock and present to the world a better picture of how horrific the situation is - and it is worse than you think. If there was pressure enough to force Israel into accepting a pause, there will be pressure enough to prevent the war from restarting. A pause would effectively be a ceasefire.

Here's an example. Remember the 20 aid trucks? Israel was forced to allow aid in, so they did their best to make it as paltry and ineffectual as possible. Before October 7th, Gaza was getting 500 trucks per day of humanitarian aid and commercial goods - so allowing 4% of a day's worth of supplies after two weeks of bombing was basically doing nothing. And initially - this was a one-off.  It was a single delivery of 20 trucks worth of aid (no fuel allowed!). But once they allowed any trucks in - they had no excuse to let them in again and now they are moving to allowing 100 trucks per day in. It is still woefully inadequate (and no fuel allowed!) but this demonstrates the point. The current murderous campaign of genocide is fuelled almost entirely by rage. If it loses momentum, it is done. If Israel concedes any basic human dignity to the Gazans, they will not be able to take it back.

Reporting now is that Israel is asking for details on how this "pause" will work. Any "pause" must be ineffectual enough that news of how bad things are on the ground in Gaza can not get out. Any "pause" that Israel agrees to must leave open the option to return to hostilities - which is only possible if sympathy for Gazans does not increase in the brief respite period. Any such "pause" will be outright rejected by the world as being a farce and the demands for a ceasefire would only continue.

For this reason, I had initially had a vey dim view of the "humanitarian pause" efforts. Israel will not accept a pause - it is the same to them as a ceasefire. A pause ends the game unless a new terror attack from Hamas or something similar happens - which would also end a ceasefire. The only difference between a pause and a ceasefire is in how it is administered. With a ceasefire, there are official observers and a guarantor nation. There are rules to how those work. A pause is a new made-up thing and it's not clear how they would work. So the devil is in the details. But here is why it might be helpful - it's possible that Israel's attempt to neuter the "pause" enough to have zero effect on the genocide campaign might be poorly executed. It's possible that negotiating the "pause" might result in something that still forces Israel into a ceasefire. It's even conceivable that this happens before two weeks are up - making me absolutely wrong. That's something that I would be more than happy to be wrong about.

Where Does Blogging Go From Here? Part One - What Even Is "Here"?

This isn't Part 8 because it would be weird to have three or four Part 8's.

So what's your solution?

The rallying cry of centrist dipshits. Pointing out that the incredibly harmful systems in place are not fixing the problems they are meant to fix, but are instead creating a lot of new extra problems - this is forbidden unless you have a perfect solution to replace it. It's a very familiar tactic to criminal justice reform activists, who are constantly told that reducing police budgets cannot be done unless you have a proven plan to eradicate all crime anywhere ever. Mere mountains of data showing that community support programs and social services like supportive housing do a much better job at reducing crime - that doesn't count. You need to prove that it will 100% work in the specific municipality it is proposed for and that the results aren't impacted by any other potential variables and remain robust for decades and also you'll never be allowed to test it anywhere ever. That sort of thing.

So it's a dumb criticism. No, I don't have a magical plan with a 100% guarantee of peace in the Middle East - and even if I did, there is no plan so compelling and easy to implement that it obviously will go forward with zero resistance or pushback from anyone. I mean - no one even gets this as answer to "where do you want to go for lunch?" And this level of justification is never required for plans like "give Israel $14 billion in weapons - also remove any Congressional oversight or even any knowledge or awareness of how that money is spent".

That said - it is a good question that warrants some consideration. What is our solution? What is even our ask other than "stop killing civilians". I mean - "stop killing civilians" is valid enough ask by itself, but it is reasonable  to think about what this means. Also, "stop killing civilians" should always be acceptable and it is frankly bonkers that there's a push to silence these calls by equating them with supporting terrorists. It is literally the opposite of terrorism!

It's a huge question, so let's tackle it in steps. Step one is the immediate request. So what is the ask? We already know the outlines of the immediate demands:

• A ceasefire. A real official ceasefire with observers and a guarantor nation.
• Unimpeded access for international humanitarian aid - including fuel for hospital generators.
• Release of all the hostages taken on October 7th. And any other hostages Hamas is holding.
• Release of the thousands of Gazans imprisoned by Israel.

Articulable defined items that directly address the issues. The hostage/prisoner exchange is the most complicated - obviously some Israeli hostages have been killed in the past four weeks. Israel has been bombing the hell out of Gaza this entire time. While it certain it looks like Israel's assault has been indiscriminate, they had to have known about at least some Hamas facilities and resources. Places where Hamas could imprison their hostages - and also high priority air strike targets for Israel. As for the prisoner release - not every Palestinian taken by Israel is a political prisoner. Palestinians can also be criminals, and maybe some of them do actually belong in  jail. Still - these types of exchanges have occurred before - although never on this scale. And the other two demands are clear and understandable. These are what the demands were two weeks ago and they will be what the demands are two weeks from now.

Two weeks from now? Well, I wanted to ensure you got the usual dosage of doom that characterizes this new fever fountain of blogging. Blogging never changes after all - including the doom.

Yes, I believe that we'll still be in the current status quo (except with much higher death rates and way more doom ) in two weeks. A ceasefire will only occur when Israel agrees to it and they have indicated that they think this war is going to be long and difficult. So any ceasefire will have to be pushed by the international community - and specifically, by the US. Israel appears to not give a shit what other nations think (other than possibly for purposes of petty revenge - such as denying Irish and Brazilian passport holders access to leave via the Rafah Crossing like they allowed for other foreign nationals) - but the US does have power here. Specifically, billions of dollars of power. I certainly hope to be wrong about this - but I think two weeks before seeing any real movement on a ceasefire is super optimistic.

Blogging Never Changes Part Seven - Context Strikes Back

While very often the stupid insane shit t hat we see happening is totally incomprehensible - sometimes, some of it makes sense, even if it is still fundamentally fucked up bullshit that is so very very wrong. Right now, calling for peace - asking that people stop shooting and bombing each other - is not considered acceptable discourse. It's seen as possibly naive and ignorant, or in some cases it's called antisemitic and sympathetic to terrorists. Calling for peace is now considered terrorism. And with the current campaign of mass killing violence ongoing - fucking bonkers.

But people don't do things "because they are evil". Even the people you think are evil - they aren't waking up in the morning cackling supervillain laughs while rubbing their hands together and pondering how they can advance the Forces of Darkness. They have their reasons - and maybe we strongly disagree with their reasons or maybe there's a huge disconnect between their plans and their objectives, but generally speaking they are not doing it "to be evil".

Criticism of Israel is fraught. While most people recognize that criticism of Israel is not criticism of all Jews - that anti-Zionism is not antisemitism, the fact remains that criticism of Israel is actually criticism  of at least some Jews. There is definitely potential for confusion and there is also a lot of overlap. It's a very rare antisemite who isn't also anti-Zionist. But this isn't the entirety of it. There is also the looming shadow of the fact that antisemitism is a very serious and very dangerous thing. 

Antisemitism exists and it is pervasive and deadly. It's much more pervasive than most people acknowledge. Here's one way of considering it - the one thing that white supremacist groups have in common more frequently than white supremacist ideology is antisemitism. For example, the leader of the Proud Boys is Enrique Tarrio. Or how about figuring out where to place Kanye on this spectrum. A big thing in white supremacist ideology, despite all their obsessing over the purity of bloodlines - is submissive Asian wives. White supremacists are way more racially diverse than people would expect. So despite the fact that they are characterized by a belief in the superiority of the white race, this is less unifying for them than their hatred of Jews. They hate Jews more than they believe in white supremacy. That's how significant antisemitism is.

So that's context too. When politicians shy away from criticism of Israel, it is driven in part by the knowledge that antisemitism is deadly serious. Knowing that any criticism they espouse could very well end up as recruitment propaganda for hate groups. But sometimes - and right now is one of those times - criticism of Israel is necessary. So there's this fraught push and pull of figuring out what to say - which results in some truly crazy shit as well. And here's the thing - this now obvious language policing where there is massive self-censorship in discussions of anything to do with Israel - that in itself is a massive propaganda tool for antisemites. Hate groups will often talk about globalist Jewish conspiracies where world leaders are just mere puppets of some shadowy cabal of uber wealthy hook nosed demons - truly ludicrous and insane shit. And then you play the tapes of world leaders trying to talk about Israel. I mean obviously this was just Justin being a useless piece of shit - quite clearly he's not acting like the puppet of an Illuminati group - I mean shouldn't the One World Government be able to find better puppets? Anyways, I think we ought to be able to agree that seeing this shit every day might be useful propaganda for spreading the law that Jews control the world. That the self-censorship and the aggressive policing of anti-Israel sentiment is counterproductive.

It's counterproductive in other ways too. Specifically in the same ways that the US' protection of Israel from any consequences for its crimes leads to Israeli governments committing more crimes. If Israel is never held to account for wrong doing - and in fact, that merely identifying Israeli misconduct is enough to "cancel" someone - then Israeli governments are going to drift in the direction of more misconduct. This magical shield which protects Israeli politics from accountability - the US veto on the Security Council and the self-censoring of valid criticism - this means that there is no external pressure for accountability for misdeeds.

Netanyahu and his Likud party is fascist. They spent most of 2023 having to deal with protests against laws placing the government outside of the ambit of judicial review. They passed a law giving operational control of the police to a cabinet minister. They've developed and fostered a private army of violent terrorist which they have unleashed upon the Occupied West Bank - a group so extreme that the Israeli intelligence agency said was a threat to Israel's security. And this is to be expected. Israel is an apartheid state - anti-Palestinian racism is formally and explicitly part of Israel's identity, and their democratic processes go on with this embedded deep within it. New police state laws or new racist measures get no real scrutiny - it's all stuff that they were already doing to some extent, stuff that never gets criticized. And so the country just drifts rightwards continuously because there is no penalty for moving to the right.