We outlined what the demand was in Part One. Ceasefire, humanitarian aid, and a hostages for prisoners "All for All" swap. I also noted that this is what the demand has been for two weeks - possibly longer. So what will it take to get to a ceasefire? Well, two sides need to agree for an agreement to happen - and the terms outlined here are basically the terms that Hamas wants exactly. So the impediment is Israel. Maybe you think this is unfair - I've outlined the Hamas position and said that's what should be in the ceasefire. What about he Israeli position? This is the Israeli position:
- Hamas is utterly destroyed.
- All hostages released.
- No prisoners are released except to the sweet embrace of death.
- Gaza is depopulated and converted into a demilitarized buffer zone protecting Israel from the Sinai peninsula where all the remaining Gazans will be forced to relocate.
The crazy first requirement of Hamas being destroyed doesn't even make any sense. Hamas leadership is not in Gaza - they are in many cities around the world. The military wing of the Al Qassam Brigades has secret leadership - so eliminating them is basically impossible. It operates sort of as a federation of independent cells. Worse still - even if by magic they managed to get "all of Hamas leadership" (whatever that means) targeted and neutralized - new leaders will step up and replace them. Really all they need is a connection with a funding source like Iran - and the ability to recruit fanatics - made a lot easier by Israel committing genocide. But that (even though it is impossible), along with securing the hostage release, are Israel's primary goals.
This is just one of many reasons I believe there will not be a ceasefire agreement in two weeks (although again - I really do wish that I am dead wrong about this). Israel has set unobtainable goals. Their demands cannot be met and certainly not in the manner in which they are pursuing it. Accepting a ceasefire would be a massive stepdown. Netanyahu framed it this way himself - claiming that accepting a ceasefire is the same thing as surrender. As stupid as that sounds - who is Israel surrendering to? - it is essentially correct. Israel isn't really fighting Hamas - this campaign of violence is absolutely not weakening Hamas at all. Hamas leadership is safe in other countries, Hamas funding is probably at all-time highs given global sentiment on the situation. Israel is fighting global opinion - they are trying to do as much genocide as they can before they world cuts them off by forcing a ceasefire.
And that forcing will have to come from US pressure - and that US pressure will only come from public pressure - which the US is all too often happy to ignore. Consider universal background checks - a gun control measure with something like 90% public support, and an issue that comes up after every major mass shooting - so pretty frequently. This is still not a law. So public pressure - while necessary - is going to have to be overwhelming in order to have any effect.
Currently, it is only a tiny handful of electeds have voiced support for a ceasefire - instead there is overwhelming support for MOAR BOMBS. The amount of shifting that has to occur just to get Democrats on side with a ceasefire is massive. So it's going to take time. And lives. Lots of them.
That said, there are some more points to consider. Right now, there's a massive amount of pussy-footing around "humanitarian pauses" instead of a ceasefire. But consider what the difference is. The scope and scale of destruction in Gaza means that no mere "pause" will be enough to stave off massive disaster. The feared disease outbreak in the overcrowded hospitals with no clean water or sanitation are starting to appear. Searching the rubble for survivors is such a massive task that it will take as long as people can con themselves into believing that someone is still holding out. Given a break in the aggression, Gaza will be able to take stock and present to the world a better picture of how horrific the situation is - and it is worse than you think. If there was pressure enough to force Israel into accepting a pause, there will be pressure enough to prevent the war from restarting. A pause would effectively be a ceasefire.
Here's an example. Remember the 20 aid trucks? Israel was forced to allow aid in, so they did their best to make it as paltry and ineffectual as possible. Before October 7th, Gaza was getting 500 trucks per day of humanitarian aid and commercial goods - so allowing 4% of a day's worth of supplies after two weeks of bombing was basically doing nothing. And initially - this was a one-off. It was a single delivery of 20 trucks worth of aid (no fuel allowed!). But once they allowed any trucks in - they had no excuse to let them in again and now they are moving to allowing 100 trucks per day in. It is still woefully inadequate (and no fuel allowed!) but this demonstrates the point. The current murderous campaign of genocide is fuelled almost entirely by rage. If it loses momentum, it is done. If Israel concedes any basic human dignity to the Gazans, they will not be able to take it back.
Reporting now is that Israel is asking for details on how this "pause" will work. Any "pause" must be ineffectual enough that news of how bad things are on the ground in Gaza can not get out. Any "pause" that Israel agrees to must leave open the option to return to hostilities - which is only possible if sympathy for Gazans does not increase in the brief respite period. Any such "pause" will be outright rejected by the world as being a farce and the demands for a ceasefire would only continue.
For this reason, I had initially had a vey dim view of the "humanitarian pause" efforts. Israel will not accept a pause - it is the same to them as a ceasefire. A pause ends the game unless a new terror attack from Hamas or something similar happens - which would also end a ceasefire. The only difference between a pause and a ceasefire is in how it is administered. With a ceasefire, there are official observers and a guarantor nation. There are rules to how those work. A pause is a new made-up thing and it's not clear how they would work. So the devil is in the details. But here is why it might be helpful - it's possible that Israel's attempt to neuter the "pause" enough to have zero effect on the genocide campaign might be poorly executed. It's possible that negotiating the "pause" might result in something that still forces Israel into a ceasefire. It's even conceivable that this happens before two weeks are up - making me absolutely wrong. That's something that I would be more than happy to be wrong about.
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