The Humanitarian Pause was a Bad Idea

I hinted at this a month ago.

I think it's pretty clear where I stand on war. My profile pic is so old that those museums are no longer named as indicated on the sign. So saying negative things about a deal to stop fighting - even temporarily - is very difficult for me. And a lot of good things came out of the truce - a crapton of humanitarian aid got delivered, hospitals were given an opportunity to treat their patients without hundreds more being admitted every day. For the first time in a month and a half, Gazans got the opportunity to sleep through the night without the sounds of military jets flying by or of bombs going off.

But the problem with a temporary truce is that it's temporary. I had tried to assuage my fears about the truce by believing that maybe it could be made into something more lasting - but this was naive and ignorant on my part. Driven by the fear of what would happen when the bombing started again.

What I said a month ago was that it would "break our hearts". That's all I could allow myself to concede at the time. But what I was really worried about was what this would do to the people of Gaza.

The siege had been going on for six weeks before the truce. One of the most intense bombing campaigns ever - including WW II. And Gaza can't really fight back. They have no interceptor jets. They have no anti-aircraft guns. The only method Gaza has of stopping the bombing is by dying in enough numbers that the world finally forces Israel to stop. The resilience you see in other populations under siege is one of holding out to survive through to the end of it. To make it out the other side when the people responsible for defending you have achieved their victory. Gaza doesn't have that. There are no nations or militaries defending Gaza, and many countries are trying to make it illegal for individuals to defend Gaza.

It's a different kind of resilience we see in Gaza. The Gazans know they are going to die. They know that Israel is going to kill them. This is simultaneously irrational and the right perspective. It's irrational because Israel will not be allowed to kill 2 million. Even if we double the official death toll, this works out to less than 2% of the population - as horrific as the killing has been, most Gazans will survive it. But it's also the right perspective because the killing is sudden and unpredictable. Death just rains down from the skies every day. Every day, hundreds are killed - from all parts of Gaza. The aid agencies have been telling us for weeks that "there is no safe place in Gaza". There is no precaution that Palestinians in Gaza can take to protect themselves. They just die in the hundreds every single day. And for a long time, that's how it looked like it was going to go on for an indefinite period of time.

There's a video of Younma El Sayed from last month that hammered this home for me. This is what she tells her children every day:

Don't worry, we're together. We're sticking together. If we die, we will die together.

And then the bombs stopped. For one fragile week, the bombs stopped. People were allowed to believe again - they were allowed to hope - to think they might live.

And then the week was over and the truce ended.

What does that do to people?

There's another point I have been trying to get noticed for at least a month now. The people of Gaza have resisted this attack better than anyone could possibly have hoped for. The conditions they are under are incomprehensibly bad - and yet there is no breakdown of public order. They are still banding together, rallying to dig survivors out of the rubble. To bring the wounded to where they can receive care. They are acting together in solidarity with one another despite the conditions they are subjected to.

The Director of UNRWA says that this too is now on the verge of breaking.

Before the war, Gaza was described as "an open air prison". It's completely enclosed by the sea on one side, and a heavily fortified and guarded fence on all the others. The only way in or out is with Israeli approval. And it is incredibly densely packed. Over 2 million people in a very tight area. The Wash Post had a good description:

The Gaza Strip has almost exactly the same land area as Las Vegas but more than three times the population. Its largest city, Gaza City, is more tightly packed than New York City, with more than 650,000 people living within its 18 square miles.

A lot of those people have moved into Khan Younis and Rafah. Less than half the area. And Israel is bombing there now too with greater intensity than before the truce. The conditions are ripe for rioting to break out - honestly, the conditions have been such for over a month already.

So - we're closing in on yet another "it gets worse" point. The conditions in Gaza right now are such that the relief agencies cannot function effectively and the psychic damage from the ending of the truce is eroding the solidarity and humanity of the people of Gaza. It is quite possibly going to get really bad, really soon.