The Paris Framework for a negotiated end to the War in Gaza was fundamentally broken - as I noted a few days ago. When the "negotiation" has one side starting from "you must be completely destroyed. Eradicated. This only ends when you no longer exist. This is non-negotiable" - well, I mean I think you can see how this might be problematic.
Since then, Hamas has responded. When I first heard about the Hamas response being "positive" - I was confused and thought that I had lost my mind. Thus far, Hamas is winning this war. Their prominence and influence, not only in Gaza but across the entire region - has massively increased. Their opponents - Israel and the US - increasingly marginalized on the world stage. Their ability to strike back at Israel? Some people have noted that fewer rockets have been launched than earlier in the war - so perhaps their rocket firing capabilities have been degraded. But these are almost entirely ineffectual in the first place - the Iron Dome actually works quite well - so there's hardly any change there. Where there has been a change is in Hamas' ability to fight IDF forces on the ground - and going by casualty numbers, this ability has only increased.
Well, details about that response are being covered now. BBC has a good summary of what Hamas is demanding, quoted below:
A draft of the Hamas document seen by the Reuters news agency suggests:
- Phase one: A 45-day pause in fighting during which all Israeli women hostages, males under 19, the elderly and sick would be exchanged for Palestinian women and children held in Israeli jails. Israeli forces would withdraw from populated areas of Gaza, and the reconstruction of hospitals and refugee camps would begin
- Phase two: Remaining male Israeli hostages would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners and Israeli forces leave Gaza completely
- Phase three: Both sides would exchange remains and bodies
The deal would also see deliveries of food and other aid to Gaza increase. By the end of the 135-day pause in fighting, Hamas says negotiations to end the war would have concluded.
The summary I saw from Al Jazeera included other details like restoring access to Al Aqsa mosque and free movement for Palestinians within Gaza. Also, they asked for something like a quarter million temporary shelters to be included in the humanitarian aid - which sounds like a lot, but is a much smaller number than the amount of homes that Israel has destroyed over these past four months.
Biden has said that Hamas' demands are "over the top". What is over the top here? What is the unreasonable demand that Hamas is making? Very clearly and obviously it is this - Hamas is not agreeing to accepting that Israel pursue them to complete destruction with military force regardless of collateral damage to Gazans. That is the single "over the top" item in the response. Netanyahu has called the Hamas response "delusional" - because it calls for Israel leaving Gaza without eradicating Hamas.
Herein lies the trap that the West has built around themselves. Hamas was relatively popular before October 7 despite being a violent terrorist organization that was credibly charged with having a deeply entrenched culture of corruption. But afterwards?
Hamas is the only group to effectively strike back at Israel. To be clear - I condemn the attacks of October 7th. Hundreds of civilians were violently murdered and hundreds more were kidnapped. This is a mass atrocity and I do not pretend that it didn't happen or that there was justification for it. BUT - since October 7, Israel has shown itself to be worse. There is no objective measure where the attacks of October 7 are anywhere close to as bad as what Israel has inflicted upon Gaza since then. And if you are Palestinian or have empathy for Palestinians? Well Israel has conducted itself as the villain here. Not to say that Hamas are heroes - they are also villains - but they are the ones that are inheriting the good will for standing up to the monster.
Moreover - Israel's campaign of what the ICJ has said is plausibly called genocide - is ongoing. It is happening right now - at this very minute. And Hamas is actively fighting it on the streets and exacting a toll in killed and injured IDF soldiers. Of course Hamas is more popular now then it ever has been before. If you were in Gaza, how could you not see Israel as the enemy? And Hamas is the only force that is fighting them.
This is the first massive pile of shit that the US and Israel are going to have to eat. The insistence that there be "no Hamas in a post-war Gaza" is unbelievably naive. Do they honestly think that there can be a post-war Gaza government that has any legitimacy if they exclude Hamas? It's farcical. Perhaps in the long term - after a Palestinian state is recognized and that state has been free from the need for a resistance (against outside interference) movement for some time - maybe then it is possible, but in the near term? This is delusional.
And it's not like we're opposed to having terrorists controlling governments. The obvious example is the US being forced to hand Afghanistan back to the Taliban, but there are many others. I think the most relevant example is that Ben-Gvir, the current Israeli Minister of National Security, literally has been convicted of supporting terrorism and incitement of racism.
Also too - "first massive pile of shit" implies that there will be more. And there will. BDS as a movement was picking up steam before all of this broke out. Does anyone think BDS has been weakened by this at all? Or the Israeli project in the West Bank? Will this continue the way it has been going? The US presence in the Middle East, with their various military bases all across the region - this is looking less and less welcome to the host nations.
The ICJ case is going to continue - and South Africa has announced that they will be taking the US among other western nations to court over complicity in genocide. And the facts of the case look really strong for South Africa's case. How is this going to turn out - and what will it mean for Israel's culture of unaccountable impunity?
That said - the folks running this show are very powerful and have no shame and will pursue their objectives with no thought given to morality or basic human rights other than for PR purposes. They will refuse the massive piles of shit they have to eat with all their might, and they have a lot of might. So we'll see how this shakes out as we go forward.
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