Crack Video

So, it's been pretty interesting times. Fired Chief of Staff, the Ford family portrait by the Globe and Mail going to press a few hours before Dougie did his media tour, The return of the mayor to his Sunday AM Talk Radio show, news that the mayor's staff have been interviewed regarding a murder inverstigation, all while the Crackstarter ticks ever closer to its goal ($192K at time of writing).  A lot to sort through, but I'm going to take it from the beginning and in small chunks.  The crack video.

So, is the crack video real?  Firstly, it obviously exists.  Three reporters from two separate outlets have described their viewings.  For this to be some bizarre plot is fake moon landings scale conspiracy theory land.  But just because it exists, that doesn't mean it's real.

What about a fake Rob Ford?  And I don't mean "James Cameron shit" but just some guy that looks a lot like His Worship.  Wait, hear me out.  Suppose someone saw the picture of Rob jogging and thought "hey I have a sweatshirt just like that".  Then they found a lookalike and made the photo - perhaps for teh lulz, perhaps they meant it as a reference letter into the world of "high-end Etobicoke drug dealing" or something. I dunno, but it doesn't seem totally ridiculous.  That said, these hypothetical photo jokers would have to know Anthony Smith.

So, then in the wee hours of March 28, Anthony Smith gets double tapped in the back of the head.  It's a different world now - we're dealing with the possibility of gangland style executions.  Let's say that sometime after that, some intrepid Globe and Mail reporter calls up our hypothetical photo-having-possibly-involved-with-drugs people and start asking about Doug's history of dealing hash. And there, the idea for the video is born.  It's made sometime in April, shopped around for a bit, with the Star actually viewing it on May 3rd after several failed attempts to arrange a meetup.

Since these cons were running a scam video, the plan was probably to take the money and run.  See how much they could milk from the media and relocate.  And now with all of the heightened attention and scrutiny, it makes sense that they would "disappear".

It's kinda crazy sounding, but remotely plausible.  And it's consistent with the observed happenings.  That said, none of this is particularly different if the video were real.  Further, even if the video were fake - that doesn't mean that Rob Ford doesn't smoke crack.  Maybe a fake video was made because knowing that Rob was a crack user, it would be easy to get the media to pay big bucks for it.

But what about Rob and his week-long silence?  Well, that was pretty weird, but if you consider that the Fords were already aware of the Globe's ongoing investigations - coupled with what appears to be their genuine belief that the scums and maggots of LEAFS SUCK's media scene are actually "out to get them".  Let me just say that Rob's actions were totally consistent with the tape being real or fake.  Although a big part of why I'm saying that is because Rob is an unstable mess who is about as predictable as someone high on crack cocaine.

So after all that, where do I stand?  Well basically, I believe that there is still a remote outside chance that my mayor does not use crack.  If I had to put money on it, well Occam's Razor says dude spends most of his time high as a kite.  But I wouldn't be very surprised if I lost that money.

UPDATE:  Press Security and Communications Assistant have both quit.
UPDATE 2:  Crackstarter has broken $200K