Trying to Find a Silver Lining

This is an interesting thread. Ahmed has contacts in these departments, folks who have been given him info the entire time. I'm sure that what he says is grounded in reality. And of course it all makes perfect sense.

We all see the writing on the wall. Can anyone imagine a future where Israel is less despised than it was on October 6th? Not happening any time soon. And they've been trying to hold on to their place of privilege with angry threats and lashing out. Seems to me to be a suboptimal strategy.

So there's a growing sense of an end to the current regime of impunity. The ICC warrants were probably quite shocking to those who believe in "accountability is for others". The Administration was already having difficulties white washing Israeli crimes - they have needed to repeatedly overrule staff opinions to impose the most pro-Netanyahu policies possible.

As Ahmed notes, there will be a paper trail of this. The dissent memos probably now fill entire filing cabinets. There will be mountains of evidence about who knew what and when. And they will be forced into getting new reports into Israeli misconduct, which they will then ignore. And that too will be documented.

It might not change things much now. The top guys are still more than willing to wade in and overrule their staff. "No evidence of war crimes." "Israel is not intentionally blocking aid." But these top guys are going to have to deal with this being in their history. As Ahmed puts it - "people in posts of public trust, many who want to wield even greater power in the years ahead." A lot easier to succeed at that when you are on the right side of history - and it's getting more and more unambiguous about which side that is.

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Yes, this is copium. Shit is super bad - and now we're getting a lot of new people noticing that it is super bad. But I don't see how this moves the needle on Biden's behaviour, let alone Netanyahu's. So the doom and despair levels are high - and the best I can do is hope that this changes how things happen in the future.

Well, What Are You Going to do About Blogging?

That's the question that always gets asked. Okay, sure genocide is bad - but how would you solve it? Everybody knows that you're not permitted to complain unless you have an answer. Unless you have a comprehensive and complete solution to the problems in the Middle East, you cannot say shit about rounding people up into tents in a designated "humanitarian safe zone" and then dropping bombs on it.

The pathetic part of this ridiculous "gotcha" is that the anti-war folks do have a comprehensive and complete solution to it. It's actually one of the slogans. End The Occupation. FFS, it's even the fucking godamned official policy of just about everyone involved. The Two-State Solution is essentially ending the occupation! There's an answer - it's so obvious that everybody endorses it. Even Israel, in its genocidal mania, claims to endorse it.

So what gives? Why are we stuck? Well because despite claiming to back a Two State Solution, Israel has been approving more illegal settlements on occupied territory. Because the government of Israel is filled with eliminationist supremacists who dream of a Greater Israel that has been ethnically cleansed to their satisfaction. This is why they view "from the river to the sea" as a genocidal slogan - because that is how they use it and it is their own position.

That's not the only reason. If it were just that there was one nation with aggressive regional domination aspirations, fueled by murderously racist ideology - that would get shut down. The international "rules based order" would limit the harm such a regime could inflict - with sanctions and ostracism and denial of access to the global community. But in this case - it doesn't. And that is primarily because of the United States of America. The US veto on the Security Council is the most obvious sign of this, but those come only after a lot of concerted lobbying and behind the scenes work influencing other nations to turn a blind eye to genocide.

That's the real problem here. We have a set of rules in place, and sure - they are not perfect. But even imperfect rules are better than "might makes right".

We don't have control over US policy decisions. So, what can we do? Well - it is the exact same situation as Israel's constant violations of international law. Israel does this with impunity because they know the US administration will shield them from consequences. So there's the crime that needs to be addressed - the US administration providing comfort and shelter and material aid to war criminals. Which they do with the expectation of it costing them nothing, or at least not very much at all.

On the ground level - this means not supporting genocide enablers. Yes, I know "Orange Man Bad". And it is a very reasonable assumption to make that he will be even worse than Biden on Israel-Palestine. But it's genocide. Surely this is the red line that cannot be crossed.

It was way back in November that the 99% Hitler meme was born. The original tweet has been deleted, but it's a piece of internet canon lore now. And to be clear - what's happening in Gaza is truly horrific, but it is not anything like Nazi Germany. The Holocaust was far far worse. BUT - a couple months ago, I would have had a third or fourth "far" in that statement. In November, 99% Hitler was so hyperbolic and outrageous that people treated it like a joke. And even now, it is still hyperbolic and outrageous. But also, a lot less funny now.

Yes, Orange Man Bad. He really is. And Biden is far better. This is true. But if this is the choice - then shit is so fucked up and broken that real change is necessary. The best commentary I've seen on 99% Hitler is this. If you need to choose between Hitler and 1% less bad Hitler - you're morally obligated to choose "fuck this shit. Fold it until it is all sharp corners and shove it up your arse."

Everyone has their lines in different places. We all have our own priorities and perspectives. To use the shorthand of the meme, it's quite obvious that Biden is not 99% Hitler and Trump is not 100% Hitler. And if there were a magical Hitler-o-meter, it's also fucking plainly obvious that Trump would rate a much higher percentage Hitler than Joe. But when the system gives you the choice between "a bit Hitler-y" and "somewhat more than a bit Hitler-y" - you need to burn the system down.

I don't like slippery slope arguments - I think you need to address issues on their merits.  And I accept that the current state of affairs does not rise to demanding revolution. But it does warrant something - some response. Perhaps that response could just be "stop defending the genoicde enablers". Is that asking too much?

Rocket Blogging

Caveat - fog of war etc. I'm going to rely on the BBC article. It puts caveats and qualifiers in that seem appropriate to me.

At least eight rockets were launched from the Rafah area in southern Gaza, the Israeli military said, adding that several were intercepted. No injuries were reported.

I'm assuming that this was okay because they do not count "lightly wounded" as an injury, as there are multiple reports of civilians being "lightly wounded" from this attack. Anyways, "at least 8 rockets". I've seen reports of "10 to 12" with 8 of them hitting locations inside Israel.

The BBC report notes that there is rocket damage reported in Herzliya, Petah Tivka, and Kefar Sava. Three different cities that are parts of Tel Aviv - so at least 3 rockets got through, and into populated areas of Israel. This is significant - the Iron Dome is actually incredibly effective and has been stopping rocket attacks quite reliably since October 7. That so many got through in this volley is not a good sign.

The best case scenario for Israel is that there was some sort of malfunction or other failure of the missile defense system. This is reasonable - no system is perfect 100% of the time. So perhaps there is a base chance of serious failure in the Iron Dome, where it loses a large amount of effectiveness once every 7 months or so. This sucks - but it also kind of makes sense how it might happen. 

The biggest problem in this scenario is that the Israel security ecosystem is deeply allergic to any sort of accountability, so addressing this problem will be very difficult. If you refuse to acknowledge that anything has gone wrong, it's very hard to fix things. Still, even if nothing is done to prevent this sort of failure from recurring, the result is that the Iron Dome is maybe a bit less reliable than previously believed. Maybe a couple days per year its performance goes from stopping 9 out of 10 rockets down to 2 out of 10 rockets. The rockets themselves aren't anything like the American made 2,000 pound laser guided JDAMs that flatten entire buildings leaving 50 foot wide craters. They are far smaller - so maybe 8 more rockets may be getting through once or twice a year.

The worst case scenario is that Hamas now has rockets that are far harder to intercept. That would be very problematic for Israel. My understanding of the situation includes the assumption that Hamas does not have any credible way to actually do significant harm. But if they have Iron Dome evading rockets, this would no longer be true. And it would be a very significant change. Even if the rockets cannot do major damage and have very low accuracy, being able to hit Israel basically whenever they want - this can certainly change the dynamic. One mitigating factor is that maybe Israel can upgrade the Iron Dome with whatever next arms-race development is required to stop these rockets - but it certainly is not guaranteed that such an upgrade exists, let alone is feasible.

A couple of notes about this rocket barrage - it was launched from Eastern Rafah, an area the IDF just invaded and took control of. There are IDF forces patrolling Eastern Rafah right now. IOW, the IDF cannot stop rocket launches even when they are actively conducting military operations in the specific neighbourhood the rockets will be launched from.

This happened after Israel closed the Rafah crossing. Where did these rocket components come from? No one knows. But we do know that Israel seems to be incapable of stopping their delivery.

And of course - launching a volley of rockets and getting past the Iron Dome, also at the longest range they've ever managed. All of this says a lot about how well the campaign to "destroy Hamas" has been going. Hamas has also just claimed that they captured an IDF soldier. The official list of fallen IDF soldiers shows that May has not been a good month for them. Quite bad in fact - the worst since January - which is skewed by the surprise ambush where Hamas exploded a building on top of a couple dozen IDF soldiers.

What Separates Israel and the United States from Hamas

And of course, what separates Israel and the United States and other democracies when it comes to incredibly difficult situations like this is our respect for international law – and as appropriate, the laws of war.

-Anthony Blinken, October 12, 2023

At Least They Are Consistent

So, they are doing hearing-type investigations in Israel over the epic failures of the IDF on October 7. Here's an article about it. Here's a big takeaway - the IDF is consistent in their approach, whether they are answering the US, the ICJ, or the Israeli cabinet.

“All matters regarding the warning we gave about October 7 are being dealt with in internal investigations. If you meant in your question that we knew and ignored or that we wanted such a thing to happen – that’s not even worthy of a response,” Halevi shot back.

They are investigating - so shut up with the questions. This is how the US answers questions asked about misconduct from the IDF - Israel is investigating, what more do you want? Also too - after not answering the question and kicking he can down the road, there is the classic taking offense at the question even being asked. For reference, this was a cabinet minister that asked the question, one of Netanyahu's cabinet ministers. One identified by the Times of Israel as being "known for her loyalty to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu".

So we at least have this - the IDF is using the very same "ongoing investigations" excuse regardless of whomever it is they are addressing.

Unilateral Recognition of Blogging

The sheer massive scale of the hypocrisy that is the US denouncing "unilateral" acknowledgements of statehood is mind blowing. I mean the fundamental component of it is bad enough, this idea that Palestinian self-determination is not a basic human right but rather a gift that Israel can choose to grant, BUT that it is the USA - a nation still pathologically consumed by its own origin story of revolution - well, just fucking beyond the pale.

Here is the analogy - the Declaration of Independence is a worthless document holding no force or validity because King George did not agree to it.

BUT WAIT! You might note that America had to win its independence with a costly bloody war after that declaration. And that is true. So really the analogy here is that Spain, Norway, and Ireland are the equivalent of France and Lafayette - obviously the villains of the American Revolution. How dare they unilaterally recognize American statehood before King George granted permission! /s

In addition to that - Gaza has already paid the blood price. The population of the USA during the Revolutionary War was about the same as the population of Gaza now - and the number of war dead back then is estimated at 25,000 to 70,000.  The official death toll in Gaza is over 35,000 with thousands more trapped under the rubble and an unknown number of bodies trapped in IDF controlled areas that remain uncounted.

Anyways - another massively disappointing but unsurprising thing is the sheer inability for the brain geniuses in the Biden Admin to recognize this sort of thing. It's like they are so sure of their righteousness that they cannot possibly conceive of any other way of looking at the situation (even though they have to constantly revise their position as Israel shits all over their plans). It was only recently that there was a leaked comment about how some in the US Unofficial Department of Genociding Muslims were worried that Hamas might be able to recruit fresh new fighters even during the active campaign of the war.  zomg! You don't say! /s

Israel is committing genocide on Gaza. Even if you're one of these stupid assholes who continue to insist that it is not genocide - surely you accept that Israel's military campaign has been horrible and filled with despicable acts of actual malice. The IDF soldiers won't let you forget this as they post a constant stream of themselves playing with the toys of the children they have recently murdered or expelled from their homes.

How do you think this looks to Gazans? Ones that have lost family members and friends to IDF violence. Who have lost their homes, entire neighbourhoods, maybe even entire towns to indiscriminate bombing? Maybe you're like the State Department assholes insisting that it is not genocide - but do you honestly believe that everybody shares your opinion in that?

There are uncountably many people who see it as genocide. Even among Americans, they are basically split on the question. What do you think the numbers are in the Middle East?

And confronting that genocide is Hamas. They are the resistance. Yes, they are also a terrorist organization - but their claims to being the righteous ones, to being the ones fighting against evil - these are all way more credible now than they have ever been. The profile of Hamas has massively increased since October 7th - and now being the primary force opposing an active campaign of genocide, one funded and backed by the world's remaining superpower. It is easy for them to spin a story casting themselves as legendary folk heroes. And it will get easier the longer this goes on. And underlying it all - Hamas is still a terrorist organization. And the new people being recruited have far fresher and more intense reasons to seek vengeance.

In other words, things are going to get worse.

The Ridiculously Woke Leftist Institution of the ICC Shoots Itself in the Foot

Here's the offending link: https://x.com/EvansRyan202/status/1792637056264401392

Is it dumb? Unbelievably. As if Karim Khan was hanging out at Columbia University in his off time, protesting the war or something. Or maybe it's that the "idealists" have some sort of power and influence over the ICC and only just waited through seven months of genocide to make their move.

Also too, the fundamental premise is also bullshit.  Here is what "uniting practically all of Israel behind defending Netanyahu just as his grip on power was finally loosening" looks like.

Thousands of demonstrators from across Israel converged on Jerusalem Monday evening to protest the Netanyahu government, as the Knesset opened its summer session after a six-week recess.

The “day of disruption” demonstrations began with a rally outside the Knesset spotlighting hostage family members and central anti-government activists, followed by a chaotic march through the capital which saw at least two protesters arrested.

Police managed to disperse the protests fairly quickly, utilizing a water cannon to spray foul-smelling Skunk liquid onto activists blocking roads after a procession to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s official residence split into multiple directions in an attempt to evade police barricades.

Dude is actually trying to defend his bullshit by saying "I just believe you should judge decisions by their impact, not their intent." This is literally his defense for saying that Israel is united in defending Netanyahu one day after a series of protests dubbed a "day of disruption" that ended with police firing chemical weapons out of a water cannon at protestors. Protestors that were marching on Netanyahu's house. I suppose they were going there to express their support for Bibi. /s

But hey, any opportunity to punch a hippie - which apparently in this case is Karim Khan. FFS.

EDIT to add: Just so that we are clear. The argument here is that if you don't like Netanyahu then you must also oppose him being charged with the crimes he's committed. Because I am very smart!