Been a while since we looked in on this. It's just so goddamned depressing - reviewing the circumstances at any point in the past half year or so means grappling with the fact that the Gaza Strip has been destroyed. Most of the buildings have been demolished or are severely damaged that they will need to be demolished. All of the normal infrastructure that's associated with human habitation, also destroyed. Water, sewer, electrical, libraries, schools, markets, and of course the entire healthcare system - pretty much wiped out.
So, what was achieved? What can Biden and Netanyahu say they managed to accomplish over these fifteen months of genocidal rage?
Nothing. And that's being as generous to them as possible about it. Even if you don't count a literal genocide as negative (because you are a racist fuckhead like Joe Biden or his foreign policy brain trust) - this whole tragedy has only incurred massive costs on the US and Israel. Israeli society was allowed to sink into the darkest depths of genocidal fever - which is going to result in a very serious reckoning when the time comes. But even aside from these future implications, they've paid a significant cost now.
The international standing of these countries is in tatters. And their strenuous efforts at postponing and delaying accountability means that this continuous harm to their reputations will persist. The ICC and ICJ cases will continue to have developments keeping the genocide as an active issue - all while we start getting information out from Gaza about how hellish the situation really is. The Hind Rajab Foundation's pursuit of IDF soldiers with complaints and requests for arrests being made anywhere exposed IDF soldiers travel is eventually going to have a hit and lead to an arrest. As much as everyone just wants to move on and not think about the genocide, we will be confronted by it repeatedly in the coming years.
Here's something I did not see as being part of the cost to Israel and their lobby in the US. That control over US foreign policy has been shaken. The genocide is so bad that large swaths of the American public and many people in the system itself - are now doing the previously unthinkable - questioning US support of Israel. This has been a forbidden topic for so long - it was always taken for granted that the US would back Israel no matter what. Well, the absolute shitshow this has resulted in has changed the game. Also too - and it's wild that someone as evil and shitty as he is - Donald Trump's return to power has changed the game. While most politicians, and basically anyone prior to Trump that could make it as a viable candidate for president, must have had extreme loyalty to Israel - Trump doesn't. Trump's only loyalty is to Trump. The fact that he's even worse than your usual politician is the gamechanger. For him, there are no sacred cows - anything can be sacrificed to the higher purpose of appeasing whatever shiny thing has his attention at that moment in time. And that includes the US' ironclad support of Israel.
Nearly a thousand IDF soldiers have died. Many times more than that have been injured. And many times more than that have been traumatized. Israel had been scraping the bottom of their conscription reserves for some time - forcing people who had retired out of service to pick up guns and cutting off time for reservists to lower than had previously been legally allowed. Worse - Iran now knows how to defeat the missile defense system. Even the Houthis were able to successfully hit Israel through the Iron Dome and with a US carrier group assisting the interception efforts. This easily offsets whatever deterrence impact they managed to get from the assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership. Hell, Sinwar died in a manner that made him a frigging hero. Holding off an IDF squad single handedly. Literally single handed - he lost one in the fighting, and still managed to push a squad back, forcing them to fall back on a quadcopter to kill him. And he went down fighting to the very end. On the front line.
The traumatization of IDF soldiers is going to get worse. As I mentioned before, there will be a reckoning as Israeli society starts to come to grips with what they have done. Now to be clear - there are definitely parts of Israeli society that won't give a shit - but it's absolutely not everybody. Some of them will see how they got played by Netanyahu and the far right. The harm to Gaza was especially bad because so many children were killed and maimed - and not every Israeli will continue to be able to justify this by ralling back on being racist shits and discounting those children just because they are Arabs. Some Israelis are going to realize what's happened - what they did. And some of those people are drone operators and snipers.
Their stated goals were to destroy Hamas and rescue the hostages. Hamas is not destroyed. The US believes that Hamas has essentially replenished their ranks by recruiting as many fighters as had been killed. Also too - it's not like that boost in recruiting ability is temporary, so undoubtedly - the military arm of Hamas is in better position now than they were on October 7. As for rescuing hostages? They did manage to rescue some hostages by force. Something like 8 hostages have been rescued alive by the IDF. This is fewer than the IDF has killed with their bombings.
Biden's position on any post-war Gaza was that Hamas could not have any role in it - in any way, shape, or form. But this was always stupid - who the hell is the ceasefire deal with then? If Hamas doesn't exist, there can be no ceasefire deal since there's no one to deal with. And sure enough, Hamas is not only still around, but remains the de-facto government of Gaza. The PA has stated that they are ready to take over in Gaza, but this will be pure theatre. It will be the same people who are doing the job now that will be doing the job after. And also too, even if Hamas steps away from their governance role, there is nothing in the ceasefire agreement about Hamas disarming or dismantling itself. And why should there be? As noted - Hamas is in a stronger position now than they were over a year ago.
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