Are We the Baddies?

As always with posts like this, I have to start off by stating that I do note support Iran. It is an autocratic theocracy run by extremist religious nutjobs. Human rights violations in the Islamic Republic are commonplace and I do believe that they are engaging in clandestine activities that harm regional and global stability.

But - objectively speaking - is the West not worse? I mean, I guess we're not as autocratic nor theocratic - and there are plenty of secular nutjobs interspersed with the "Mission from God" folks. But in terms of being a threat to regional and global stability, what Iran is doing seems is practically benign.

Let's just consider the situation as the fucking racist genocidal sociopaths at the US State Department see it. On October 7th, Hamas attacked Israel - killing over a thousand people and kidnapping hundreds more. In response - Israel has killed or injured over a hundred thousand, subjected hundreds of thousands more to famine like conditions, and displaced millions of people in Gaza, a territory with a population of 2.3 million. And the US says "this is regrettable but acceptable and we will provide infinite support to ensure it continues".

In comparison - Israel attacked an Iranian embassy in Syria, killing seven people. In response Iran does the following:

• Sought redress at the UN, which the US and its allies veto. For reference, there is still no official UNSC statement about the bombing of an embassy - a week and a half later.
• Offers to forego retaliation if there is a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, which is denied.
• Launches a counter-attack which damages military targets and results in one girl getting injured.
• Says they are done with retaliation and that was the extent of it.

And now the nutjobs are out for blood, demanding a retaliatory strike against Tehran. So who are the badd guys here?

Okay, that was the post. What follows is random thoughts about the military implications of the strike. And this information may be dubious as no one wants to admit anything - but this attack does not look good for Israel. At all. Why do I say this even though 98% of the attack was intercepted? The reports are that 7 missiles went through and that these were 7 out of 7 of the hypersonic missiles that Iran launched - 5 of which hit Nevatim Air Base, and all of which were launched from Iran. IOW, Iran has established that they can reach fairly deep into Israel whenever they want and with a fair degree of accuracy. Despite the interception effort being backed up by multiple Arab states and a full on US carrier group.

Iran now also has information on the extent and capabilities of the missile defense systems. They now know exactly where the Iron Dome facilities are (and did I mention that they also have the ability to reach into Israel with hypersonic missiles with a fair degree of accuracy?) and which states will go all out to defend them (at enormous political cost to Jordan). At the cost of a bit more than three hundred drones and missiles. All that was missing from this attack was one hypersonic to have "misfired" and landed harmlessly in the Red Sea at a range which implies that Iran could take hit  USS Dwight D Eisenhower if it wanted to. Maybe Iran doesn't have that range - but pretty sure that the DoD is shitting bricks about it. This is almost certainly just coincidence, but 7 hypersonic missiles also coincides with the number of missile defense ships in Carrier Strike Group 2 (3 cruisers and 4 destroyers). Maybe a missile actually did hit the Red Sea and we're just not hearing about the "misfired" weapon since it didn't actually do anything. On the plus side, misfired missile or not, the US has already stated that they will not support a counterattack into Iran. That is a positive sign. Unfortunately it is one I have almost zero faith in - six months of admonishing Israel for killing too many civilians with no reduction in the supply of bombs will do that to your credibility.